Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions – 2014 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Tournament Preview

Tiger Woods is back in action this week after struggling through an injury ridden slump that has held him out of contention of late. Eleven other top 20 stars will join him as Woods pursues an unheard-of ninth win at Bay Hill.  Other notables in the field will be World No. 2 Adam Scott, No. 3 Henrik Stenson and No. 4 Jason Day thus marking the very first time in 2014 that the world’s top four contenders will all play in the same event. 2014 two-time winner Patrick Reed will also be in attendance along with six out of the other nine players with PGA TOUR wins so far in 2014. Arnold Palmer’s grandson, Sam Saunders (who plays on the Web.com Tour), is in on an exemption for the fifth time and will compete at his grandpa’s big event this week.

The Course

The Golf Course at Bay Hill Club & Lodge measures in at 7,419 yards and plays as a par 72. Designed in 1961 by course architect Dick Wilson, this track was dubbed by some as the “best course in Florida” (Bay Hill sits at #3 on our recent list of the 10 Best Florida Golf Courses) after Arnold Palmer gave it a go, which later sparked him to buy it.  The course plays very long with lots of challenging holes, making it no picnic for pros or guests alike. In fact, the closing three holes have been known to produce often finishes, but no nickname has been given to the trio just yet – unlike the Bear Trap (Honda Classic) and Snake Pit (Valspar Championship) we’ve seen in prior weeks.

Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, FL (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Mar 20) 80 degrees, 10% chance of rain, mostly sunny.
• Round 2: Friday (Mar 21) 80 degrees, 0% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (Mar 22) 81 degrees, 30% chance of rain, few showers.
• Round 4: Sunday (Mar 23) 80 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy.

2013 Results

It was Tiger Woods again in 2013 when he held off Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler in a Monday finish, returning him back once again to the coveted World No. 1 rank. The win matched Sam Snead’s record for winning eight times in the same event. The tournament was struck with damaging thunderstorms and 60+ mph winds which forced the final round to be pushed to Monday. Woods finished with a 2-under 70, never letting anyone get closer than within two shots of the lead when the tournament resumed. The win at Bay Hill marked Tiger’s third victory of 2013 and 77th of his career, bringing him to within five of Snead’s all-time record.

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Unfortunatly we’re unsure if Tiger’s ailing back will be in good enough shape to secure him a record breaking ninth win at Bay Hill this week. So far this year Tiger has blown up at Torrey Pines (a course he’s owned in the past), withdrawn midway through a round at Honda Classic, and limped his way through a final round at Doral. Needless to say, the returning champ has not been in top form.

Patrick Reed, on the other hand, will come into the 2014 Arnold Palmer Invitational feeling refreshed and eager to compete after his victory at Doral –  his third since his win in August at the Wyndham Championship. Reed is now No. 3 in the FedExCup standings and sits  only 546 points behind Jimmy Walker. Woods won at Doral and Bay Hill last year, and Ernie Els the same in 2010, so it’s possible that Reed can join those ranks this week.

Jason Day will also be returning to the field this week after pulling out of the WGC-Cadillac with a minor thumb injury.

Fantasy Notes

Our weekly fantasy picks and predictions continue to average over $1.1 million in earnings per tournament in 2014, with successful picks making the cut 90% of the time (69/77).    This week, it’s easy enough to go with Woods, Scott, Day, and Stenson, but beware of trying to oversimplify this challenging event. If the past is any indicator, we know that nothing is a sure thing, so look out for some new names on our fantasy picks list this week (below).  Don’t be so quick to just pick the top guys on the most recent Vegas odds board.  Tiger is always at number 1, he was for his last 3 starts which were simply terrible.  Trust our experts to have current and past knowledge of the current tournament’s field as well as past winners and other historical stats.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 12:30-2p.m. (GC), 2-6 p.m. (NBC).
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday- Sunday, noon-6 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2014 Arnold Palmer Invitational

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

• Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds 12/1):  T14
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 15/1):  T38
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 22/1):  T20
• Harris English (Golficity Odds 27/1): T38
• Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 35/1):  T8

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship

• Luke Donald (Golficity Odds 50/1): T4
• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 65/1):  T14

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $12,963,337 (average tournament winnings of $1,178,485).
• Winners Picked: 3 winners picked out of 11 tournaments (27.3% winners picked in 2014).
• Top 10 Finishes: 28 out of 77 players picked (36.36% of players picked finished in Top 10).
• Top 3 Finishes: 9 out of 77 players picked (11.70% players picked finished in the Top 3).
• Missed Cuts: Only 8 out of 77 players (89.61% of the picks made the cut in 2014).

Let us know what you think of this week’s fantasy golf picks and predictions for the 2014 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill by leaving us your comments below.

(Cover Photo Credit)