Fantasy Golf Predictions – 2013 Crowne Plaza Invitational

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 Crowne Plaza Invitational May 23 – 26, 2013

Preview:   Zach Johnson began his 2012 Ryder Cup season with his first of two wins here at Colonial Country Club.  Each of the past four Colonial champions have come from behind on the final day, including Johnson who overcame a one-shot deficit to beat Jason Dufner last year. Before that, the tournament saw a seven-year run during which the 54-hole leader always walked away with the trophy.  Already a winner this year, Matt Kuchar, has yet to miss a cut in six visits to Colonial, which includes a 9^th place finish in 2008.  Keep an eye on guys like Henrik Stenson and Kevin Streelman this week and don’t rule out the chances of Zach Johnson will being in mix again this year.

The Course:  Colonial Country Club is located in Fort Worth, TX and plays as a short par 70, measuring in at 7,204 yards.  This challenge-packed course was founded by Marvin Leonard and designed by Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus. The tight fairways and doglegs have been a consistent test for players dating back to when the course debuted in 1936. The U.S. Open was played here just five years later and the course also hosted the second edition of THE PLAYERS in 1975, as well as the 1991 U.S. Women’s Open.  Colonial is currently a member-owned club consisting of approximately 1,500 members.

Photo by Crowne Plaza Invitational Official Facebook Page

The Weather at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, TX (from weather.com):

• Round 1: Thursday (May 23) 87 degrees, 30% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 2: Friday (May 24) 86 degrees, 10% chance of rain, AM Clouds/PM Sun.
• Round 3: Saturday (May 25) 89 degrees, 10% chance of rain, AM Clouds/PM Sun.
• Round 4: Sunday (May 26) 89 degrees, 0% chance of rain, mostly sunny.

2012 Results:  We all recall Zach Johnson’s two-stroke penalty last year when he moved his ball marker on the 18^th green out of Jason Dufner’s line and then forgot to replace it. Lucky enough for Zach, he had a big enough cushion to absorb the blow. It was CBS course reporter Peter Kostis who pointed out the error, which was relayed to Johnson before he signed his scorecard. Otherwise, Johnson could have been disqualified for signing off on a wrong score.  We hope Zach took Peter out for a nice steak dinner for that…

Notes:  After two wins and finishing sixth in last year’s FedExCup playoffs (and a Ryder Cup selection), Johnson has yet to return to winning form in 2013.  We didn’t pick Zach high on our picks to win this week because his tie for 19th at THE PLAYERS was his best finish since the season opener. Back in 1946 Ben Hogan became the first and only player to sweep both the Byron Nelson and Colonial titles in the same year and we don’t see Sang-Moon Bae breaking that record this year.

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2013 Crowne Plaza Invitational:

• Charl Schwartzel (Golficity Odds 13/1): Schwartzel is a first-timer at Colonial but we like the way he played last week after notching a solo third in his debut at the HP Byron Nelson Championship. Charl also led last week’s field in greens hit and ranked T2 in par-4 scoring.
• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 18/1): After showing a solid T5 at THE PLAYERS, Stenson is back in action in the USA to take on a tough field. He currently leads the PGA TOUR in fairways hit and greens in regulation – both critically important stats for a course like Colonial.  Stenson currently ranks 42^nd in FedExCup points for 2013 and this will mark his fourth career start at Colonial.
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 22/1):  Rickie has been steadily improving at Colonial over the years, finishing with a T38 in 2010, a T16 in 2011 and a T5 last year. Keep in mind however that Rickie has not finished in the top 30 in his last four starts dating back to Augusta.  The colorful youngster has been struggling of late, failing to break par in five rounds and ranks 44th on TOUR in fairways hit, T62 in strokes gained-putting, 46th in adjusted scoring and 23rd in scrambling.  This makes him sort of a long shot, but Rickie is due for another win. He’s too good of a player and heck, he just filmed a commercial for Crowne Plaza Hotels…so we’re sure he’ll want to play well for his new sponsors.
•  Zach Johnson (Golficity Odds 22/1): Simply put, Zach knows this track pretty darn well. The two-time winner (2010, 2012) is 7-for-7 with no worse than a T9 (2009) in his last four visits.  Zach had 15 consecutive rounds under par at Colonial before last year’s closing 72. We didn’t rank him higher due to his struggling play this year on TOUR (tied for 19th two weeks ago at TPC Sawgrass).  Overall, Johnson seems to be a different golfer then he was in 2012, but he had to make the top-5 list to win this week due to his record here.
•  Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 35/1):  “Kuch” hasn’t missed a cut in six appearances at Colonial where he’s posted two top 20s. Matt tied for 33rd last week at the HP Byron Nelson Championship, but co-led the field in par-5 scoring average. So far Kuchar has one win on TOUR this year and has made sixteen consecutive cuts.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

•  Kevin Streelman (Golficity Odds 50/1):   Streelman is a first time winner this year (Tampa) and ranks third in FedExCup points behind Tiger and Snedeker. To date he’s 4-for-5 with a T3, T6 and co-runner-up with top 25 stats in fairways hit, greens in regulation and strokes gained-putting. Streelman has played here before and he tied for 10th at Colonial in 2011.
•  Martin Laird (Golficity Odds 50/1): Laird won in San Antonio last month has two T10s in two appearances at Colonial (2010, 2011), coming in at par or better in all eight rounds. In his last start this season, Martin shared fifth at TPC Sawgrass.

Last Week’s Fantasy Golf Predictions Results (The 2013 HP Byron Nelson Championship)

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds: 12/1):  T27
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds: 15/1): T27
• Marc Leishman (Golficity Odds: 15/1): T12
• Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds: 22/1): T33
• D.A. Points (Golficity Odds: 30/1): T12

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds: 50/1): T33
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds: 50/1): T33

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(Cover Photo Credit)