Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open

2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Betting on golf is like having all of the pieces of the puzzle in your hand but still not being able to complete the picture.

If you’d suggested that grizzled grinder Brendon Todd, young upstart Brandon Wu and Denny McCarthy, who hasn’t gained strokes on approach in an event since November, would make up the top-five at the AT&T Pebble Beach you’d have been met with quizzical looks.

But maybe the identity of the winner was expected. They say that form is temporary, class is permanent, and it was in that spirit that Justin Rose ended a four-year wait for a PGA TOUR win at Pebble Beach.

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The Brit is a thoroughbred, make no mistake, but even he must have been wondering if he’d ever return to the heady days of winning the U.S. Open a decade ago. 

The beauty of golf is that players of all ages can thrive, and even at 42 Rose can enjoy heady days in the sport – if his comfy win in California is anything to go by, at least.

The AT&T Pebble Beach is a frustrating event for many reasons, but you won’t have to worry about this week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

In what other event are patrons actively encouraged to heckle, cheer and generally make a whole bunch of noise while the players are on the tee? With the Super Bowl taking place just up the road, Sunday on the sixteenth hole could be an atmosphere unlike any other.

There’s risk-and-reward awaiting those willing to give the big stick a rip on holes 15, 17 and 18 too, so it’s great fun to watch – even if it’s a bit more unsettling to play one of the finest closing sets of holes in the sport.

Maybe that’s why the likes of Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa haven’t really bothered in recent years, although the elevation of the Phoenix Open to ‘designated’ status – plus a doubling of the prize fund – has led to that trio having a rethink about TPC Scottsdale.

They will be joined by Arizona lovers Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler, who won his first PGA TOUR title as a 33/1 pick here 12 months ago. My, how time flies in golf….

The last five winners of this event – Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, Rickie Fowler and Gary Woodland – are all classy sorts that were in fine form at the time of their triumph. It might not have escaped your attention that four of that five are major champions, too.

So the cream tends to rise to the top at the Phoenix Open, which makes backing long odds outsiders somewhat more challenging. 

However, the beauty of deep-field events is that you can pick up some quality operators at long odds, and that’s the idea behind the picks that feature upon our Phoenix Open sleeper shortlist.

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Tyrrell Hatton – 50/1 – It’s been a while since Tyrrell Hatton has been seen on the PGA TOUR, but in the meantime he’s been bubbling along nicely.

T2 in the DP World Tour Championship was followed by T7 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in January, and it’s noteworthy that he’s been driving the ball superbly well in recent times – that’s never a bad skill to have at TPC Scottsdale.

T15 in his sole trip to this venue, Hatton is a laidback kinda guy (when things are going well) who might just dig the Scottsdale vibe. He’s already a PGA TOUR winner, remember.

Rickie Fowler – 60/1 – We’ve been suckered in by an apparent Rickie Fowler renaissance before.

But this time could be different, because he’s striking the ball beautifully. He’s gained strokes on the field in each of his last five Shotlink tournaments on approach, and he finished T2 at the ZOZO Championship – not backed by data, but undoubtedly he was flushing it there too.

It’s been tough for Fowler in recent years, as we know, but a four-year stretch at TPC Scottsdale in which he finished 1-11-4-2 is proof positive that this is a set-up that suits his game to a tee. Can he cash in on considerable improvements of late?

Corey Conners – 66/1 – Outside of the absolute elite, Corey Conners is one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA TOUR, but a haul of just one win is confirmation of his mediocre short game.

The Canadian evidently worked hard on that in 2022 without getting the trophies to prove it, but we – and hopefully he – are believers that if you keep setting up birdie looks with quality tee-to-green play, eventually something will click with the flat stick.

With form at Augusta and Colonial, Conners ticks a couple of boxes this week ahead of a trip to a layout he should love.

Tom Hoge – 80/1 – Although we keep banging Tom Hoge’s drum on these pages with minimal reward, it’s hard to give up on a player who has become one of the best iron and wedge hitters around.

Hoge hasn’t just gained strokes on the field on approach in recent times, he’s outperformed the field markedly – gaining +1.00 or more in five of his last six starts (prior to the AT&T Pebble Beach).

Therefore, he’s setting up stacks of birdie chances – with positive putting numbers in six of his last eight Shotlink measured outings, we have to assume another strong performance is just around the corner.

Keith Mitchell – 80/1 – Big Keith has been creaking through the gears since golf’s resumption in January, following a T22 effort at the American Express with a top-10 turn at the AT&T Pebble beach.

TPC Scottsdale should play to his strengths more than the hosts of those events, and it comes as no surprise that Mitchell has T10 and T16 finishes to his name at this venue.

A long hitter with quality on approach through his bag, Mitchell should also enjoy the pureness of the greens this week. He’s certainly one to watch.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Waste Management Phoenix Open here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2022-2023)

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