Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2023 John Deere Classic

2023 John Deere Classic Fantasy Sleeper Report

One of the standout performers of the 2022-23 season, Rickie Fowler finally got his ultimate reward with victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week.

He channelled the Fowler of old by making birdies at crucial times – none more so than the red three posted at the 72nd hole to force a playoff with Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin, and again on the first extra hole when he stiffed an iron from the deepest rough after shanking his drive towards the patrons.

Rickie duly watched Morikawa and Hadwin miss their birdie attempts, rolled home his own 12-footer and stood becalmed in the middle of the green while all around him lost their minds.

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This was a supremely popular win, but Fowler’s stoic calmness at the end gave a clear indication that this was a player who was in no doubt that another PGA TOUR win was forthcoming. Given how well he has struck the ball this past year, who would bet against more following.

Gambling is the name of the game at the John Deere Classic this week as the PGA TOUR makes its annual stop-off at the putting shootout that is TPC Deere Run. With no disrespect intended, that’s the only reason that a quartet as disparate as J.T. Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli and Michael Kim can win the same event in recent memory.

Poston is the defending champion after winning wire-to-wire 12 months ago, and given the sparse nature of the field he may just fancy his chances of retaining the title. The woefully out-of-form Cameron Young leads the way alongside Denny McCarthy, Russell Henley and Keith Mitchell, who cannot be described as prolific champions. Who knows what will become of Ludvig Aberg in the future, but 20/1 for a player in his fourth PGA TOUR start is plenty short for us.

This is one of the most open events on the PGA TOUR rotation – a week where a hot flat stick and above-average ball-striking will be more than enough to post a winning total. There is simply very little to worry about at TPC Deere Run, a medium-length Par 71 where three Par 5s and a drivable Par 4 will make up the majority of the scoring. Only a couple of holes, including the tricky eighteenth, will require full concentration.

Here’s a fun fact: each of the last five winners at the John Deere Classic has started their journey at odds of 50/1 or longer – Kim was a mammoth 200/1. This is manna from heaven for longshot backers….if we can crack the code and be on the right side of putting variance.

Who knows: perhaps the following five sleeper plays have what it takes to tame the 2023 John Deere Classic?

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

Taylor Montgomery – 50/1 – You may recall a time last Fall when Taylor Montgomery was starting events with better fields than this at sportsbook odds of 30/1. The reason? He looked a PGA TOUR winner in waiting.

Since then, it’s been a tough transition to life at golf’s top table and he has struggled, but one thing that hasn’t changed is Montgomery’s absolute brilliance on the greens.

Less than a year ago, there would have been laughter if you’d said Montgomery would start at odds of 50/1 for a tournament as weak as this, so if he can just find a way to get his ball onto the greens at TPC Deere Run and leave birdie putts, he could wind back the clock to better times – this is a guy that posted eight top-20 finishes in nine starts not all that long ago.

Brendon Todd – 66/1 – As fellow Todd-ites will know, there’s only a few weeks a year when Brendon can truly compete.

Happily, the John Deere Classic is one of them, because his lack of length isn’t penalized and he will enjoy a handy edge on many in the field thanks to his assured putting stroke.

Todd’s form has been up and down – as you would expect from such a short hitter, but when conditions allow he can very much be a danger at the top of the leaderboard….T8 amongst classy company at the Wells Fargo Championship in May evidence of that.

Mark Hubbard – 70/1 – The Rocket Mortgage Classic was the first event since early April that Mark Hubbard didn’t gain strokes on the field with his approach play.

In the same timeframe, his putting has gained in authority too – not a huge amount, but enough for Hubbard to convert the birdie chances his awesome iron and wedge game had created.

Those that believe in biorhythms will have noted Hubbard’s top-five finishes in the Barbasol and Barracuda Championships at this time last year, so perhaps there will be more summer lovin’ for Hubbard this week too.

Lucas Glover – 75/1 – A curious sort, Lucas Glover has a habit of finding form at just the right time.

The 2021 John Deere Classic winner has now followed T20 at the Canadian Open with T4 at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, and so he couldn’t wish for more confidence ahead of a return to TPC Deere Run.

Notable was how well Glover rolled the rock on the greens at Detroit GC – a world away from the struggles he has faced with his putter this season. But a confident Glover returning to a favorite old haunt? We’ll have a slice of that.

Chez Reavie – 75/1 – If you scan back to the start of April, things have been going rather nicely for Chez Reavie.

In the ten outings he has made in that timeframe, Reavie has missed just one cut and posted three finished of T11 or better. 

His approach play and putting in that window have both been excellent, so there’s absolutely no reason not to expect another strong showing in Illinois.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the John Deere Classic here.

Cover photo via Instagram