Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2023 Fortinet Championship

2023 Fortinet Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Fans of the PGA TOUR and regular readers of this column will typically remember the events played between now and Christmas as humdrum affair.

But no more. As the dust settles on Viktor Hovland’s remarkable TOUR Championship and FedEx Cup triumph, those farther down the FedEx standings have some rather pressing business to attend to.

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That would be the new Fall Series, where – quite simply – players that finish lower than 125th in the rankings are toast. Their full playing privileges on the PGA TOUR are taken away for the 2024 season, and they are left hoping that exemptions and invitations come their way. Without naming names here, there’s some famous faces of the sport whose immediate future is in peril.

At the other end of the spectrum, those that perform well in the Fall Series have a chance to play their way into the first few Signature Events next year – big purses, big opportunities.

So now the Fall Swing has taken on meaning and consequence, and the hope is that the golf as a spectacle and as a betting vehicle will improve as a result.

The first of the Fall Series events is the Fortinet Championship, played each year at the Silverado Country Club over in Napa, California. It’s not the most agreeable venue to return after weeks away from competitive golf, with tight fairways that would be easy to miss even when completely ‘match fit’. 

The good news is that the North Course has forgiving rough and receptive greens, so a low fairway percentage can easily be translated into a decent GIR clip of 70% of more.

The North Course is pretty short too at 7,123 yards for its Par 72, with a main requirement of hitting decent approaches from inside the 150-yard mark – be it from the rough or the short stuff. 

Putting well on Poa Annua is also non-negotiable – welcome to the West Coast, where the greens tend to run a little slower and stodgier than the Bermuda and Bentgrass surfaces found elsewhere. Only those with success with the flat stick on Poa Annua surfaces need apply.

Backing bombers seems a fair enough approach in this evident – Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ and Kevin Tway have all had their name etched on the trophy since 2018, but the identity of the winner of the last two editions of this tournament points towards a classier operator altogether.

Max Homa was the back-to-back victor at Silverado in 2021 and 2022, although he needed an almighty helping hand from Danny Willett to make the latter win come true. The Brit simply needed to make birdie at the final hole to end a six-year trophy drought on the PGA TOUR.

But he missed a four-footer for birdie, followed by toeing a five-footer for par wide and therefore handed Homa a victory that even he clearly wasn’t expecting as he waited for Willett to nudge home the winning putt.

What drama will unfold in 2023? Hopefully, any action at the business end will involve one or more of the selections in our Fortinet Championship sleeper shortlist.

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Davis Thompson – 50/1 – Although Home has brought an end to the bombers theory at Silverado, it’s still difficult to overlook that Champ-Cink-Tway run of victories at this layout.

In interview, Champ even alluded to the fact that he basically didn’t care whether he found the fairway or not here – he simply wanted to get his drives as close to possible to the green, while others have commented how some sneaky pin positions favor those approaching from a great height; an attribute typically shared by longer hitters using loftier clubs.

Which brings us to Davis Thompson, whose T9 here a year ago predated a fantastic showdown at the American Express with Jon Rahm, where the rookie held his own before settling for a T2 finish.

Will those good memories spur on the big-hitting Thompson once again?

Justin Suh – 55/1 – The ‘reset’ that comes with the end of the regular season, and time away from competitive golf, allows players to work on their game away from the spotlight.

It should, in theory, act as restoration for the stronger players who perhaps lost their way over the course of the previous campaign, and Justin Suh is just one player that falls into that category.

With a T6 finish at the PLAYERS Championship on his highlight reel – as well as T20 at the strong, correlating Farmers Insurance Open, Suh has staked his claim as an exciting talent; he is simply one of the best putters around. 

But behind-the-scenes work on his ball-striking yielded dividends in a surprise visit to the Omega European Masters a few weeks ago, where he gained +1.33 strokes on the field on approach. Could that herald another excellent season ahead for Suh?

Garrick Higgo – 55/1 – There’s not a great deal of subtlety to Garrick Higgo’s golf game, but when the conditions allow him to uncork those huge drives of his then he definitely has something of an edge on fields of this quality.

A decent enough short-range approach game and scrambling ensures he gets his ball onto the green in timely fashion, and while putting remains something of a mystery to the South African, he has actually gained strokes on the field with the flat stick in three of his last four PGA TOUR starts – eye-catching indeed.

That run yielded three efforts of T21 or better, so the omens are good if Higgo can keep the train rolling into this Fall Series.

Taylor Pendrith – 60/1 – There is a theory – proven by some, disproven by others – that Canadians, used to cooler conditions, tend to thrive on slower greens.

Each to their own, perhaps, but it should perhaps come as no surprise to note that some of Taylor Pendrith’s best PGA TOUR performances have come on the more sluggish Poa Annua surfaces.

His regular season came to a rather abrupt end, but time away should have given Pendrith plenty of time to get his game back on track – he’s a big hitter with a high performance ceiling, if nothing else.

Joel Dahmen – 175/1 – Perhaps as a nod to his popularity in real life and on social media, tournament officials have put Joel Dahmen in the ‘marquee’ 3-ball alongside Homa and Champ.

There’s no guarantee, but that should drive Dahmen on to perform much better this week – we know that, at his best, this is a guy with some serious approach play talent.

Dahmen has a decent track record on Poa greens too, so despite these lengthy odds he is by no means a forlorn hope this week.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Fortinet Championship here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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