Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Sleeper Report

Four weeks, and a fourth straight winner at 100/1+ on the PGA TOUR!

The latest entry into the outsiders’ hall of fame is Matthieu Pavon, who has made hay since clinching his PGA TOUR card at the end of 2023. 

The Frenchman posted a T7 finish at the Sony Open, and backed that up in fine style at the Farmers Insurance Open – seeing off fellow Europeans Stephan Jaeger and Nicolai Hojgaard in a tumultuous Saturday finish that required Pavon to stiff a 140-yard approach from deep rough over a water hazard.

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Not only did he flush the connection, the ball landed 15ft away from the hole to enable Pavon to complete a maiden PGA TOUR victory as an 100/1 underdog.

Will there be a fifth longshot winner in a row at the AT&T Pebble Beach this week? Ordinarily, the odds of that would be higher, but some format changes for the event have perhaps tilted the balance in favor of the favorites.

For the first time, the AT&T Pebble Beach will enjoy Designated Status. That brings with a quality field – although the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy barely have a competitive round at the venue between them, while Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa amongst those teeing it up too.

Gone are the celebrities and sporting stars from the pro-am portion of the tournament – they have been replaced by some decent amateurs who will at least go about their business in professional fashion, resisting the urge to goof around. There will be no cut for the 80-man field, either.

Also gone is Monterey Shore, typically one of the three host courses of the event. Instead, Pebble Beach Links and Spyglass Hill will share hosting duties on Thursday and Friday, with Pebble Beach in exclusive charge over the weekend.

Pebble Beach is the quintessential American Links course, perched high up on the cliffside overlooking the Pacific Ocean. It can be weather affected – we’re expecting a wet and cool week in this slice of California – with a chief defense of tiny Poa Annua greens; these are some of the smallest on the PGA TOUR.

Spyglass Hill is no gimme either, with tight lines off the tee and similarly small Poa greens. At least the tree-lines afford some shelter from the breeze.

Justin Rose and Daniel Berger are among the classier recent winners of this event, albeit in its non-Elevated status, but once again we expect the champion this week to have a stellar week with their irons and wedges – rain-softened greens could turn this event into something of a flag hunting contest, which are typically won by those with laser-like precision on approach.

But who fits the bill? Let’s take a look in our AT&T Pebble Beach 2024 sleeper shortlist.

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Byeong-Hun An – 55/1 – A frustrating drug-suspension over some cough medicine cost Byeong-Hun An the end of 2023 from a golfing perspective, but he’s made up for in style in 2024.

He banked top-fives in both events on the Hawaiian Swing, gaining strokes on the field in all four departments, and continued a run dating back to the summer which has seen him finish inside the top-five in four of his last seven PGA TOUR starts.

Immensely talented, An hasn’t always been able to connect his excellent tee-to-green game with a solid putting week. If he continues on the path towards that, the Korean can contend once again at Pebble Beach.

Beau Hossler – 55/1 – Strap yourself in for the curious case of Beau Hossler, Poa putting aficionado and Pebble Beach specialist.

He’s ranked top-10 for birdies made in this event in each of the last two years, finishing T3 and T11 as a result.

Prodigiously talented, it’s amazing that Hossler hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR or even got close all that often, but T6 at the Farmers – where both his approach play and putting were excellent – was an excellent primer for a trip to a pair of layouts where he has thrived in the past.

Keegan Bradley – 70/1 – Priced at 30/1 just a week ago for the Farmers, it seems remarkable that Keegan Bradley has fallen out of favor with the sportsbooks after just one mediocre outing.

In his penultimate start, Bradley finished T2 at the Sony Open, and you can even track his formline back over six months to see how well he has been crushing his approach shots.

Although he hasn’t been a frequent visitor to Pebble Beach – or a visitor at all, many of the elite players in the field are in a similar boat this week. And not many of them have been hitting irons and wedges quite like Bradley in recent times.

Emiliano Grillo – 100/1 – The signs in Emiliano Grillo’s game are positive right now.

You may recall that the Argentine had an excellent middle portion of 2023, winning the Charles Schwab Challenge and delivering a slew of top-10s – including T6 at the British Open.

The Autumn Swing was less successful, but T7 at the Sony Open was followed by a solid T20 last week at the Farmers, where Grillo’s approach play – as it was at Waialae – was in rude health.

Three British Open top-20s, as well as high finishes at the Sony, Puerto Rico Open and RBC Heritage, confirm Grillo’s love of golf by the seaside.

Tom Hoge – 100/1 – Tom Hoge has built a career around classy iron and wedge play – that was franked by his victory in this event back in 2022.

Results lately have been inconsistent, and yet his quality approach play has never waned – he beat the field average in SG: Approach at the Farmers, as well as gaining a whopping +1.65 in a T17 turn at The American Express.

Hoge has made a stack of birdies in this event over the past three years, and this is evidently a tournament he loves. He has the approach play skills to hang with the very best at Pebble Beach – especially in that key 125-yard and in range.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2024)

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