Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 Northern Trust Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 Northern Trust Open

This Week’s Tournament Preview

The West Coast Swing will conclude this week  with the 2015 Northern Trust Open before the TOUR shifts to Florida and Texas as the season gears up for Augusta in April.  Roughly ten winners on the 2014-2015 wrap-around season will be in the lineup this week with no single player having yet won their second on the year.  The odds however look pretty good for that milestone to be broken this week at Riviera.

This is an important week for some of the players close to the bubble line of the World Top 50 rankings as places 1-50 will all secure their spot in the WGC-Cadillac Championship at Doral in two weeks.  J.B. Holmes came into Pebble Beach right on the cut line at 49 but catapulted his way up to 41 with his exceptional play over the last two weeks.  Snedeker, with his bounce back win at Pebble last week, jumped himself up 32 spots from 63rd to 31st and should have no problem making the ballot for the Blue Monster.

Bubba Watson is this year’s Northern Trust Open defending champion and will certainly be in contention to defend his title.  Speaking of World Rankings, Bubba has a great chance to jump over Henrik Stenson this week to take over the coveted number two spot.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Our horse pick Jason Day played well leading into the weekend but came up short on the final day to finish T4 along with another pick of ours, Dustin Johnson (also T4).  In total, our picks took home close to $640,000 in tournament earnings for the week which keeps our weekly average above $925,000 over the last 12 events.

A few unexpectedly poor performances from Palmer and Kirk caused our made cuts percentage to slip to 86.9% and we’re determined to get that back above 90% before the WGC.

Going with Day over Walker this past week was the big debate in fantasy golf this week and we’re glad we chose wisely, as Day finished T4 while Walker came in at T21.

Our Tuesday Sleeper Report picks also fared well this week despite their super high odds (all sleeper picks are based on 50/1 or greater odds).  Three of our five sleeper picks made the cut and our 125/1 pick Daniel Berger finished T10, grabbing himself a nice chunk of earnings and some bonus fantasy points for our Premium Members.

The Field

144 players will square off at Riviera including defending champion Bubba Watson and the current FedExCup leader Jimmy Walker.  A handful of European TOUR sensations like Sergio Garcia and Victor Dubuisson will also be making their 2015 U.S debut as players begin to hit the states to get primed for the Masters.

Other notables in the field this week include Mahan, Bradley, Brendon Todd (who is trying hard to move up into the Top 50), hot hitting Pat Perez, and Charl Schwartzel.  The talent-packed field will certainly make for a significant challenge in any DraftKings, FantasyFeud, VICTIV, or other salary cap league this week.

Just a quick word of advice for all you fantasy golf fans out there: ignore the Fred Couples hype this week, yes he’s played well here and won here a couple of times, but Tiger won at Torrey eight times and look what happened two weeks ago. Freddy, we love you, but you wont be able to hang with this group of long ball hitters and magicians.

The Course

Riviera Country Club measures in at a lofty 7,349 yards yet plays to just a par 71.  Sitting in the LA Hills, Riviera has been a true golf landmark in the area dating back to when it first opened its doors in 1927.

Designer George Thomas took some pride in developing this memorable and challenging track, and who can forget the odd par-3 sixth hole that contains a bunker in the middle of the green.

Some argue that the par-4 10th is the most drivable par-4 in golf, sitting at around 315 (depending where the tee box is)—we know Bubba will be going for it, but it’s not an easy recovery if you miss the green.

PGA Professional tips on playing No. 10 at Riviera Country Club

Todd Yoshitake, Director of Golf at Riviera Country Club shows how to play the short par-4 10th hole from tee to green in this instructional from “Inside the PGA TOUR” Check out more ‘Inside’ videos http://www.youtube.com/pgatour Subscribe to the PGA TOUR channel The four-time Emmy Award nominated “Inside the PGA TOUR” airs on Golf Channel at 6:30 p.m.

Weather Forecast for Pacific Palisades, CA (from weather.com)

The forecast this week will consist of temperatures in the mid-70s with a combination of sun and clouds throughout the tournament.  No rain is expected leading up to the event either, so the course should remain dry and true from first tee-time until the closing hole on Sunday.  A minor threat of rain may come into play by the weekend, but nothing too serious to worry about.

2014 Results

Last year Bubba Watson claimed his first victory since winning his first green jacket 22 months before.  Amazingly, the go-for-broke lefty carded 64-64 on the weekend, which catapulted him from a four shot deficit to winning by two strokes on Sunday.  What’s really astonishing is that Bubba played his final 39 holes without a single bogey and carded the lowest closing round by a winner in 28 years!

Dustin Johnson (66) finished with runner-up honors for the second consecutive week after losing by a stroke to Walker the week before at Pebble in 2014.  Johnson looks healthy enough to win this year, but we’ll see if he makes our picks segment this week.

In case you missed it, here is a recap of what happened in the final round of the 2014 Northern Trust Open:

Bubba Watson fires second straight 64 to win Northern Trust Open: Highlights

In the final round of the 2014 Northern Trust Open at Riviera Country Club, where Bubba Watson went bogey free on the weekend to claim the win. For complete coverage from Riviera . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 5:00 pm – 8:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 1:00 pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 3:00 pm – 6:30 pm EST (CBS)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 2:00 pm – 8:00 pm EST
  • Saturday 1:00 pm – 6:00 pm EST
  • Sunday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

This week’s field will tempt you to drift towards the obvious picks, but Riviera has been known to punish some of the best players in the game, so we’ll be looking hard as past success, recent play, and two important little stats: GIR and the All-Around.

Despite the Par 71, Riviera course is no picnic, and last year it averaged slightly above par at 71.209.  So what’s causing these guys to underperform?  Riviera ranks the lowest on TOUR for putting percentage 3-feet and closer at 98.53%.  Ok we know, 3-footers aren’t going to decide the tourney this week, but with a stat like that you have to think the track is a tough test.  This week we’re picking guys who can not only get the green, but stick flags tight, and then we’ll begin the elimination process by looking at putting percentage.

Despite its challenges, Riviera offers a Par-5 opening hole on the front 9 measuring 503 yards which should yield just about 99% birdies (you would think) and the drivable 315 yard Par 4 10th on the other side should see about the same successes.  Players certainly have the chance to get off to hot starts which is another key stat we’ll be targeting this week as well.

Advice of the Week: If you’re playing in this week’s $2 Chip Shot DraftKings Salary-Cap League (with a total prize pool of $40,000), or $1k Free Roll be sure to pick smart and don’t break the bank with too many high value players (as we see so many fantasy players often do).  Instead, grab one or two and fill up the rest of your squad with lower priced names to round out your earnings.  Cut-makers with undervalued odds that have a fighting chance to sneak up into the top ten this week are the key.  Take a look at our sleeper picks below for some fresh ideas on low priced players this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 Northern Trust Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 Northern Trust Open

• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 4/1): Most will be favoring Bubba Watson and Jimmy Walker this week, but we love the reduced price tag on Dustin Johnson…a guy who can easily win this tournament.  That lower price tag will leave you some extra wiggle room to add a few other quality names to your roster.  Despite his time off, DJ has been staying active, and this week he’s coming fresh off a T4 at Pebble, a track he’s dominated in the past.  He’s also quite strong at Riviera, amassing three top fours and a T10 in seven trips there.  He doesn’t have enough starts under his belt in 2015 to have any significant stats, but in only two starts he’s averaging 315 yards per drive; a fact that can certainly help him navigate Riviera.  At $13,700 we like DJ as our horse pick this week.
• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 8/1): Bubba has been largely preoccupied with charitable work and fun antics off the course since his last start in Phoenix, but that hasn’t stopped him before.  There is something about Bubba being the defending champion that gets us excited, and yes, we had him as our horse pick for the 2014 Masters too (for a lot of the same reasons).  Bubba has taken two weeks off and again, this isn’t why Dustin is our horse pick.  We simply feel that DJ has a better game for the course then Bubba this week.  Regardless, Watson ranks 4th in the All-Around and 1st in Driving on TOUR, he also sits 3rd in the World rankings and 5th on the FedExCup points leaderboard.  Put him on your squad with DJ if you have the room in your salary cap.
• Bill Haas (Golficity Odds 28/1): There are a few better picks than Haas in the 3rd spot, so if your not playing salary cap and straight pick’em like GolfZing, you can get away with adding Walker and Spieth, but we have to stick to our theory of picking two top priced players in a salary cap.  Haas is a good bet to fill in the blanks at $9,500 this week and he knows the track well.  Billy won this event back in 2012 and has top 25s in the last four editions here.  Add that to his recent win at the Humana four weeks ago followed by his T19 at Torrey and you have yourself a great recipe for some solid fantasy points.  He’s not exactly a stat pick here, but knowing and having watched his game for years, we can certainly say that Billy is a solid choice this week.
• J.B. Holmes (Golficity Odds 33/1): This guy is heating up and now he’s sitting pretty in the Top 50 in World Ranking and getting ready to compete at a WGC event in March.  Holmes has been making noise over the last two weeks with his T10 at Pebble Beach, including firing an impressive 65 on Sunday.  Prior to that event he finished T2 at Torrey Pines, falling just short to our horse pick Jason Day in a playoff.  As far as his history at the Northern, Holmes finished no worse than T12 at this event from 2008-2012 and for the price, we think he’s a stellar pick this week.
• Charl Schwartzel (Golficity Odds 40/1): We were going to pick Furyk in this spot but his failure to slam the door with his 54-hole lead made us gun shy.  Charl is priced a bit below Furyk anyway which gives us an added discount, and with his knowledge of the course and recent play abroad, we like his chances this week.  The South African  comes into Riviera with a history of quality finishes (T3 in 2013 and 5th in 2014).  He also has a second place finish in South Africa and a T9 in Abu Dhabi so far this year.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Northern Trust Open

• Robert Streb (50/1): Streb took a break from his hot start to be with his wife for the birth of their first child.  At $7,400 we think he’s a steal in most salary cap leagues.  He has 5 Top-10 finishes in 8 events played this season and ranks second in the All-Around.  Streb can find GIRs no problem, and his putting skills are ideal for the course.  Although he hasn’t played since a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open, we still love his value for the price tag this week.  Overall, a great sleeper pick if you need one.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 Northern Trust Open

• Charlie Beljan (Golficity Odds 66/1): We thought about Henley or Todd here, but Beljan was screaming our name after his solo third finish at the AT&T last week.  It’s also worth noting that in 2013 he lost in a playoff at Riviera to John Merrick and finished T12 last year.  As far as stats go, Beljan ranks second in both Driving Distance and Total Driving this year and has the ability to control the ball around tight turns like the ones Riviera poses.  For $7,200, he makes a solid super-sleeper pick this week and if your a straight-up gambler, at 66/1 Vegas Odds you could score a nice pay day from Charlie this week.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 7/1): T4 ($281,067)
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 12/1): MC
• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 18/1): T4 ($281,067)
• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 20/1): T29 ($44,200)
• Chris Kirk (Golficity Odds 45/1): MC

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2015 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

• Jason Kokrak (Golficity Odds 50/1): MC

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2015 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

• Bryce Molder (Golficity Odds 80/1): T34 ($33,611)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats: 2014-2015 Season

• Tournaments Played 2014-2015: 12 (84 picks).
• Total Fantasy Dollars for the Season: $11,117,069 ($926,422 weekly average).
• Total Top 10s: 25 out of 84 picks (29.76%).
• Total Top 3s: 12 out of 84 picks (15.58%).
• Runner-Up Finishers: 4 in 12 events (33.33%).
• Total Winners Picked: 2 in 11 events (16.67%).
• Total Missed Cuts: 11 out of 84 players picked (87% made the cut).

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 Northern Trust Open with other Premium Members.

Want more fantasy golf picks for the 2015 Northern Trust Open?  Check out our Tuesday Sleeper Report for more great long-shot selections coming off 50/1 or greater odds.

(Cover Photo Credit)