Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2015 U.S. Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2015 U.S. Open

The 2015 U.S. Open Preview

It’s events like this that really get us amped up for fantasy golf.  With the U.S. Open week in full swing, fantasy players all over the world will be looking for ways to cash in on DraftKing’s highly publicized $1 million prize—that payout is more then the second place player’s take in the actual U.S. Open!

The big stage will be taking place on the West Coast this week, so be prepared for some entertaining evening TV for those of us in a different time zone, with tournament broadcasts up until almost 11pm EST all week.

This week you truly have a phenomenal event to watch, as the U.S. Open is the only event that amateurs can qualify for.  Here’s how Wikipedia breaks down the qualifying process:

The U.S. Open is open to any professional, or to any amateur with an up-to-date men’s USGA Handicap Index not exceeding 1.4.  Players (male or female) may obtain a place by being fully exempt or by competing successfully in qualifying.  The field is 156 players.

About half of the field is made up of players who are fully exempt from qualifying. As of the most recent U.S. Open in 2014, the exemption categories are:

• Winners of the U.S. Open for the last ten years
• Winner and runner-up from the previous year’s U.S. Amateur
• Winner of the previous year’s Amateur Championship
• The previous year’s Mark H. McCormack Medal winner for the top-ranked amateur golfer in the world
• Winners of each of Masters Tournament, Open Championship and PGA Championship for the last five years
• Winners of the last three Players Championships
• Winner of the current year’s BMW PGA Championship
• Winner of the last U.S. Senior Open
• Top 10 finishers and ties from the previous year’s U.S. Open
• Players who qualified for the previous year’s Tour Championship
• The top 60 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) as of two weeks before the start of the tournament
• The top 60 in the OWGR as of the tournament date
• Special exemptions selected by the USGA
• All remaining spots after the second top 60 OWGR cutoff date filled by alternates from qualifying tournaments.

 Source: Wikipedia

One big question this week will be whether Tiger play well or continue to struggle.  While Tiger’s performance at majors will always bring the buzz, other questions whipping up a media storm will be whether or not Rory will continue his dominance, or if Jordan Spieth will finally make that huge leap and dethrone McIlroy’s long reign atop the OWGR.

And of course the media and fans will be talking once again about Phil’s quest to win the only major he has never won, but does he deserve a spot on your roster this week?

The Field

This truly is one of the best lineups in golf as all the heavyweights come together for a chance to capture one of golf’s greatest trophies.

The clear favorite this week (and most expensive player in fantasy this week) will be World No.1 Rory McIlroy, who won this event back in 2011.  He has since gone on to win three more majors and own the top spot in World Rankings for the last 84 weeks (yes, that’s over a year and a half!).  Regardless of how Rory performs we think Tiger’s streaks of 264 weeks from 1999-2004 and 281 weeks from 2005-2010 will be safe for many decades to come.

2015 Masters winner Jordan Spieth will also be seeking out his second major both of the year and of his career.  The streaking Texas native is playing the best golf of his career and it could carry him quite far at Chambers Bay this week.

Last year’s victor Martin Kaymer will head a field that includes all top 60 in world rankings.  Undoubtedly we can expect some amazing pairings this week for sure with players like Day, Rose, Johnson, Mickelson, and Fowler.

Check out this week’s pairings courtesy of USOPEN.com.  These match-ups are defiantly something we’ll be focusing on when making our picks this week.  Playing partners can affect, alter, or sometimes even predict an individual’s performance, and for a shot at $1 million you can count on it that we’ll be dissecting every part of this week’s field when making our selections.

The Course

Chambers Bay is a gem of a golf course located in Washington State and it measures at an astounding 7,742 yards and plays as a par 70.  Imagine how far some of those par 4s will be with only two par 5s on the whole 7,700+ yard track!  With that in mind it should come as no surprise that we’ll be putting a premium on Par-4 scoring along with distance rankings this week from our stats team.

Certain players have better track records on links style courses and those stats could be critical for pick selection this week.  Here’s a great preview of Chambers Bay and what types of challenges lie ahead for the players in the field this week:

GW Destination: Chambers Bay

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Also be sure to check out our own first hand review of Chambers Bay by Golficity contributor Gord Montgomery here.

Weather Forecast for University Place, WA

The weather should be ideal all week as forecasts are showing temperatures in the low 70s with no threats of rain or heavy wind coming off the bay.  Winds could get as high as 12 mph some days (normal numbers for this Pacific coast course) but there are no signs of real gusting winds coming in this week.

Overall Chambers Bay should be dry and play in perfect condition for the 2015 U.S. Open.

Last Year’s U.S. Open Results

What a run Martin Kaymer had in 2014 with a clutch PLAYERS Championship win on Mothers Day and a U.S. Open win on Father’s Day.

Kaymer posted a record 65-65 start which leaped him into the a quick lead and left him with virtually no threat during the weekend.  In the end, the German youngster won on a tough new Pinehurst course by whopping 8 strokes.  If it weren’t for a late round bogey he would have joined the company of Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods as the only players to finish a U.S. Open at double digits under par.

The other story coming out of last year’s U.S. Open was Rickie Fowler’s runner up finish.  Rickie performed solidly in every major event of 2014 but ultimately came up short of the win in each.  After Rickie’s recent win at THE PLAYERS we’re all obviously wondering if this might just be Fowler’s year to come out on top.

Here’s a recap of Kaymer’s romping at Pinehurst:

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This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 12:00 pm – 8:00 pm EST (FOX Sports)
  • Thursday – Friday 8:00 pm – 11:00 pm EST (FOX)
  • Saturday 2:00 pm – 10:00 pm EST (FOX)
  • Sunday 2:00 pm –  10:30 pm EST (FOX)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 1:00 pm – 11:00 pm EST
  • Saturday 2:00 pm – 10:00 pm EST
  • Sunday 2:00 pm – 11:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the U.S. Open app for iPhone and Android

Where to Play Fantasy Golf this Week

Here is our suggestion for the best place to play fantasy golf for this week’s U.S. Open:

• Fantasy Golf Millionaire Maker: There is really only one place to play this week and even if you only play fantasy golf for major events this is the contest for you.  Why not throw $20 dollars at a chance to win a million?  That said, you have until this Thursday morning to grab a seat and DraftKings is still offering 100% deposit bonuses to first time depositors.

Inside Tip: Refer a friend to sign up and deposit to DraftKings as a new user this week and you’ll receive a free entry into the big game!  How easy is that!

This Week’s U.S. Open Classic Fantasy Notes

This is the big one folks!  Pick wisely and remember not to just pick the highest priced players.

Chambers Bay is a tough links style course so accuracy here will be key, but the 7,700+ yard track also requires players to have outstanding distance.  Also keep in mind that although the greens here are very large (8,700 square feet) they still offer some tough undulations.  Don’t believe us?  Just watch this:

Putting & reading the greens well so far!! Good read @jtedscott!!#USOpenChambersBay pic.twitter.com/9Iobm55qUS

— bubba watson (@bubbawatson) June 12, 2015

Simply put, the Chambers Bay greens will favor ball-strikers and allow guys with decent putting stats to score well.

The daunting fescue that covers the course from tee to greens is unlike any grass in the country as it was flown over from Scotland.  With some fairways as tight as just 18 yards across we’re sure to see plenty of balls find their way into the tall grass so scrambling is another stat we will focus closely on this week.

Perhaps the biggest question comes down to Rory or Spieth?  You can’t put them both on your roster so you have to pick wisely.  We’ll talk about which one we feel is your better horse in the picks segment below.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2015 U.S. Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the U.S. Open

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds: 3/2 FPPG: 89.4 GPFP: 113.59 Salary: $12,600): Everyone in the world has Rory McIlroy as there top pick this week, but lets be realistic, for the price tag you simply cannot have Spieth and McIlroy on your roster—if you do you’ll be left with names like Jason Palmer and Kurt Barnes on your roster and do you really want your shot at $1 million riding on that?  So, we have to choose between the two as our horse pick of the week and Spieth is the better pick in our opinion. Although Rory is rested and Spieth has been playing almost every other week, we have to rely on the numbers and what we have been seeing from both of these guys recently.  Jordan tops our list under the GPFP category with a whopping 113.59 and as an added bonus he costs $400 less then Rory this week which allows you to add more juice to your sleeper picks.  Although only 21 Jordan certainly isn’t lacking experience.  Spieth is major winner already this year and has been steam rolling ever since.  He leads the TOUR in a ton of categories including adjusted scoring, par-4 scoring—a crucial stat at Chambers Bay—as well as proximity from the rough.  Jordan has shown some stellar putting as of late and a natural born winner.  He’s the guy you need leading your team into battle this week.
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 8/1 FPPG: 69.5 GPFP: 55.56 Salary: $11,500): Justin is playing exceptionally well as of late and is a past US Open winner to boot.  He recently won in New Orleans and has two other second place finishes since his T2 at the Masters.  Rose is an amazing ball-striker and ranks second on TOUR in both birdie average and sand saves.  He’s a true contender in major events and he could find himself a second U.S. Open trophy pretty easily if everything is clicking this week.
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 14/1 FPPG: 69.5 GPFP: 55.60 Salary: $10,800): If we have Rickie in the lineup you can be sure that it’s either a major or a big event because those are the times when Fowler really shows up to play.  Rickie has proven many times over to play exceptionally well in big events and ever since the 2014 Masters he’s cashed in on top 15s in all five majors and all four WGCs—plus who can for get that he won THE PLAYERS last month (can golf.com take their foot out of their mouth yet?).  If there is ever a guy to step up on the big stage its this kid for sure.  His stats are nothing to applaud, but his big game mentality is priceless.  Try to stick Fowler on your roster if you can fit him.
• Jimmy Walker  (Golficity Odds  18/1  FPPG: 83.3  GPFP: 100.79 Salary: $9,100 ): Walker is easily your best bet in the low $9K range.  Jimmy is beginning to heat up again and it looks like he has put an ended to his dry spell.  Since his hot start he’s cooled off but the engine seems to be picking up steam at the right time.  Walker is coming off a T2 at the Byron Nelson and has proven to be a big game contender with top 10s in three of four majors in 2014.  It’s also worth noting that he currently ranks first in strokes gained putting, a key stat here at Chambers Bay for sure.
• Billy Horschel (Golficity Odds 24/1 FPPG: 63.8 GPFP: 71.41 Salary: $8,000): Speaking of heating up, it looks like Billy is beginning his campaign to defend his FedExCup title.  We love how underpriced he is this week at only $8K as he continues to climb up every leaderboard.  Since the match play event Billy has four top 20s in as four starts including a T8 in Memphis last week.  He looks confident on the course and his game is trending in the right direction at a perfect time.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the U.S. Open

• Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 70.7 GPFP: 56.58 Salary:$7,100): Like Rickie, Na steps it up at big events and we we’re pleasantly shocked to see his salary at $7,100 and not $8,100.  He has eight straight top 20s in stroke-play events, including all of the big tournaments.  Na ranks inside the top 25 in adjusted scoring and scrambling which are both key on links style courses.  He also had a decent run last year with a T12 at Pinehurst, but let’s face it, nobody was catching Kaymer.  In case you’r wondering we like Na over Palmer in the $7K arena.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the U.S. Open

• Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 69.4 GPFP: 86.01 Salary: $7,000 ): Our indicators have him ranked 6th in GPFP this week with 86.01 and that’s based largely on his excellent power rating and recent performance.  Charlie has also been known to step it up on the big stages and is putting together a career season on the PGA TOUR.  With a win already, he’s looking to add a major and possibly a FedExCup trophy run.  You simply have to love him at the $7K price tag this week!  He’s an all-around player, a great ball striker, and phenomenal tee-to-green hitter.  Grab him to round up your roster this week.

Sample Roster With Jordan Spieth as Horse

Sample Roster Without Spieth

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Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”12.75%” bar_text=”25 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”24.48″ bar_text=”48 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”25.00%” bar_text=”7 out of 28 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”39.28%” bar_text=”11 out of 28 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”81.12%” bar_text=”159 out of 196 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked” percent=”100%” bar_text=”1 out of 1 event” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2015 U.S. Open with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo by Gord Montgomery