Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Sony Open in Hawaii

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 Sony Open in Hawaii

2016 Sony Open Preview

The first event of 2016 is officially in the books and we’re off and running on what looks to be another exciting year.  Last week we successfully picked Spieth as our “horse pick” over a dozen or so other contenders, all of who had the chops to pull out a win in Kapalua.  Hindsight being 20/20 some may say that Spieth was the “obvious” pick to win but remember, in salary cap fantasy leagues you can only have one “horse” on your roster and with DJ, Watson, Day, and Fowler in last week’s field you’d be kidding yourself if you think Spieth was a “sure thing.”   We’ll talk more about last week’s success in the next section, but first let’s preview this week’s 2016 Sony Open in  Hawaii.

We had our eyes and ears glued to the television this past week as we observed Sony Open defending champ Jimmy Walker’s play and his coach Butch Harmon’s comments about him.  Although he kept up with most of the field in Maui (T10), it was obvious to both us and Butch that Jimmy is lacking some confidence with his putting thus leaving us a bit unsure of his ability to put up a three-peat this week.  PGA TOUR aficionados will note that the last time a player went back-to-back-to-back was when Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic in 2009, 10, and 11.

Here’s an interesting stat: In Kapalua’s 16 year existence on the tournament schedule, eleven winners of the Sony Open won after playing the Hyundai in the prior week.  Keep that in mind as you look through this (and last) week’s field to build your roster on DraftKings, FantasyFeud, StarsDraft, and others.

Besides Walker look for Charles Howell III to be another ‘Horse-for-the-Course’ this week as Howell has posted an impressive seven top-5 finishes here but has never come out on top.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

What an exciting week it was as we kicked off the 2016 calendar year with a strong fantasy victory from our top pick of the week Jordan Spieth.  Although the OWGR #1 ranked player might seem like the obvious choice now after hearing about his dominant 8-stroke victory  over Patrick Reed, it was actually a pretty tough call going into the week considering how much talent we saw in the Hyundai field.  In fact, all 32 champions of last season could have easily dominated a low wind, short, highly-scorable Plantation Course at Kapalua.

In total for the week we finished with three Top 10 finishes including the Winner, 5th, and a T10 for a total weekly purse earnings of $1.9 million which brings our eight event average for 2015-2016 to $1.003 million per week.

For more, here’s a breakdown of how we fared in each fantasy tier:

Horse Pick:  Jordan, Bubba or Jason?

Salary cap leagues leave only enough room for one of these premier names on the roster so on our must have pick of the week for your fantasy lineup, we chose Spieth in the top spot and left Day and Watson out.  The result ended up with a Jordan win ($1,180,000), Bubba (T10 $148,000) and Jason Day (T10 $148,000).  It’s safe to say we grabbed the right horse pick.

Mid Tier I Pick: Fowler or Dustin Johnson?

This was a tough pick simply because DJ has won here in the past and has an amazing long game good enough to dominate the Plantation Course with it’s reachable par 4’s.  In the end Rickie proved to the the right choice as he dialed it up on his last 9 holes Sunday to finish in 5th ($274,000) while DJ came in at T10 ($148,000).

Mid-Tier Pick II: Kevin Kisner, Brooks Koepka, or Justin Thomas?

Although JT looked good at times this pick burned us a little bit as Thomas carded a disappointing 73 on Friday which dropped him to T21 for the week ($78,333) while Koepka (T3 $381,000) and Kisner (9th $178,000) played better than expected.

Low-Tier Picks (2): Jimmy Walker, Emiliano Grillo, or Russell Knox?

The Walker and Grillo picks over Knox were a big help this week as Russell fell to a disappointing 27th ($66,000) while Walker (T10 $148,000) and Grillo (T18 $90,000) earned us a few more points on our DraftKings roster suggestions.

Sleeper Report Picks

Our Tuesday “Sleeper Report” included Brandt Snedeker as our Top Sleeper Pick of the Week and Sneds beat out his 55/1 Vegas odds to finish T3 ($381,000) this week which certainly helped our Premium Members rake in the cash with a Spieth-Snedeker one-two punch on DraftKings.

The 2016 Sony Open Field

The field this week will go from a limited field event of just 32 players to a full field event with over 140 players attending, so its time to get a little more strategic when making your picks.

A lot of talent, both new and old, will enter the grounds of Waialae CC this week with names like Adam Scott, Jason Dufner, Matt Kuchar and 2016 favorite Tony Finau all taking a crack at the top spot.  In all, there will be just seven players among the OWGR Top 30 participating this week and all will be gunning for this week’s favorite and defending champion, Jimmy Walker.

Some of the spill over from Maui will include names like Zach Johnson, Kevin Kisner, Danny Lee and Graeme McDowell, just to name a few.

For a full list of this week’s field, click here.

The Course

Waialae Country Club will measure in this week at 7,044 yards and play as a par 70—three strokes less than less week’s host. Known for replicating famous holes around the world—like the “Road Hole” at St. Andrews’ Old Course just to name one—Waialae CC will require a completely different game plan than that of Kapalua’s Plantation Course.    

Waialae’s primary defense is the wind, which, aside from maybe Friday, is not expected to be a major factor this week.  So, at just 7,044 yards, scoring figures to be low yet again.  After ranking as the easiest par 70 in 2013, it sat second behind Sedgefield in scoring among all par 70s in the last two seasons.  

Last year’s field average with light-to-moderate breezes in Honolulu was 69.007 and primarily dry and seasonable conditions fill out this week’s forecast so look for scoring averages to go even lower.

A photo posted by BAUMER (@djbaumer) on Jul 17, 2015 at 4:45pm PDT

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Weather Forecast for Honolulu, HI

There will be a little less sun with a few more clouds than last week in Maui, but essentially the weather conditions will be mostly the same.  Expect 80 degree days, little to no rain, and very little wind.

Players shouldn’t have an issue going low this week in these near-perfect weather conditions.

Last Year’s Results from the Sony Open

It was only six days after blowing a huge lead at Kapalua that Jimmy Walker came back to slam the door on his opponents with a romping at the 2015 Sony Open.  The 9-shot win was a strong statement after losing to Reed in playoff the week before in an event that looked to be his pretty much the whole week before he blew it on Sunday.

Walker shot 62-63 on the weekend and took just a two-shot lead into the final day before dropping an ridiculous seven birdies in his last 11 holes.

Here’s more on Jimmy’s 2015 Sony Open dominance:

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbbab9i6ARo&end=149&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (Jan 14, 2016) – Saturday (Jan 16, 2016): 7:00 pm – 10:30 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Sunday (Jan 17, 2016): 6:00 pm – 10:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Saturday: 6:00 pm – 11:00 pm EST
  • Sunday: 5:00pm – 10:00pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra App for iOS and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sony Open this Week

With 2016’s first full-field event it’s safe to say that fantasy golf is officially back in full swing.  That said, here are a few of our favorite fantasy golf contests this week:

• PGA $200K BIRDIE [$200,000 GUARANTEED]: Like last week, this seems to be the best event for the cheapest entry.  It’s no $1.4 billon Power Ball but this $3 dollar entry event will pay the winner $15,000!
• PGA $125K FAIRWAY [$125,000 GUARANTEED]: Here’s a game with a slightly higher entry ($27) but a much smaller field (it caps at only 5300 players).  First prize here will get slightly less ($12,000) but it’s still a solid payday with less competition versus the bigger contests.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2016 Sony Open

Last week’s big stat to focus on was Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and this week, although important, we’re putting a little more emphasis on GIR.  Wind will not be much of factor this week, which is really the only obstacle at Waialae, so scoring is expected to be low again—not as low as Jordan’s unbelievable -30 last week, but it should still be pretty low.

Other than that, we’ll be keying in on guys with solid a history on this course and certainly on green finders that are playing at the top of their game right now.  If Spieth was in the field this week he’d be our horse pick easily, but he’s not, and we’re unsure if Jimmy Walker has the confidence right now to win this event a third time this week.

Tip of the Week: If you’re building a salary cap roster this week, like every week, have a strategy to picking your squad.  Start with your sleepers first, pick two solid choices and then pick your horse (see our Tuesday Sleeper Report segment for more help selecting your sleepers this week).   You can then fill in the cap with the best mid-tier you can assemble for your money!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sony Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open

(Note: Keep in mind most of these 2016 statistics are a result of only one or two events for most of these players and are therefore limited in their predictive capacity.)

Horse Pick: Jimmy Walker, Adam Scott, or Kevin Kisner?

Kevin Kisner (Golficity Odds 10/1 FPPG: 105.90 GPFP: 127.08 Salary:$11,700): It kills us not to pick the back-to-back defending champ who is coming off of a T10 the week before and we’re struggling to leave Scott on the bench, but…we have to go with Kisner here.  He’s a winner and he proved it recently with a win at the RSM which he backed up with 9th place finish at Kapalua last week.  Prior to his win in November, Kisner had a solo 2nd the week before at the HSBC.  He comes in 5-for-5 in cuts made and ranks 8th in strokes gained: total.   He finds the green 75% of the time and he has the short game needed to post a low score here at the Sony.

• GIR Rank: 65th
• Scrambling: 72nd
• Putting Average: 11th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 30th

* Most Notable Stat:  All – Around Ranking: 1st

Mid-Tier Pick I:   Matt Kuchar, Zach Johnson, Justin Thomas?

Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 16/1 FPPG: 100.70 GPFP: 124.87 Salary: $10,800): We we’re going to roll the dice on Kuchar this week with all of his success in past years at Waialae, but instead we’re going to put our money on a bounce-back week from a less expensive guy with a longer tee shot.  JT shot a career-low 61 in the second round as a rookie last year which put him in the co-lead after day 2.  He also ranked T2 in the all-around for the week.  His pair of 70s on the weekend finished him at a T6 and we know that his booming drives and accuracy can help him dominate this short course.  With a staggering 124.87 GPFP the numbers and the momentum just seem right for Thomas to really break out at this week’s event.

• GIR Rank: 55th
• Scrambling: 177th
• Putting Average: 67th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 46th

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: 7th

Mid Tier Pick II: Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Na, Russell Henley?

Russell Henley (Golficity Odds 22/1 FPPG: 84.70 GPFP: 98.21 Salary: $10,300): Here’s our struggle with this tier:  Snedeker had a great week in Kapalua and Kevin Na had such a red hot start to the season, thus making either a wise choice in this price range, but instead we’re running with Henley this week.  The once Sony Champ (2013) hasn’t played a competitive round of golf since his T6 at the RSM Classic but that shouldn’t stop him from coming on strong this week.  A month prior to that Henley notched a solo 10th at the Shriner’s and he now begins his 2016 quest for FedExCup points and a Ryder Cup in the USA.  If you need to shave some salary money in this spot you can get also away with Lee or Grillo.

• GIR Rank: 59th
• Scrambling: 74th
• Putting Average: 107th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 33th

* Most Notable Stat:  Scoring Average: 4th

Low Tier Picks (2): Gary Woodland, Tony Finau, or Scott Piercy?

Scott Piercy (Golficity Odds 35/1 FPPG: 79.50 GPFP: 80.00 Salary: $8,500): Woodland’s going to find his way onto a ton of rosters this week and because of that and his inconsistent play, he’s staying off of ours.  Piercy made our squad last week at Kapalua and it will be a smart play to give him another chance after what we saw.  Scott has 4 of 4 made cuts this season with no finish worse than a T35 including a T7 at the CIMB.  Granted that he couldn’t quite find his groove last week in Maui but this is course is an entirely different animal.

• GIR Rank: 84th
• Scrambling: 49th
• Putting Average: 102nd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 116th

* Most Notable Stat: All-Around Ranking: 31st

Tony Finau (Golficity Odds 48/1 FPPG:91.80 GPFP: 118.46 Salary: $8,300): Finau is back and he’s sporting his new Nike gear after his crisp new sponsorship contract.  Who knows, maybe some of that Tiger and Rory swoosh magic will rub off on him.  But in all seriousness,  Finau could be a FedExCup contender this year.  This fall he had a T32, T16, and a T9 but he hasn’t played a competitive round since November 1st.  He ranks 2nd in driving distance which should make this short course even shorter.  You have to keep those 16 Top 25s from last year in mind as he begins 2016 on a course that he can tear up.  Any way you slice it Finau is solid pick here at Waialae CC.

• GIR Rank: 89th
• Scrambling: 80th
• Putting Average: 79th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 56th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 2nd

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Sony Open

Peter Malnati (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 175.92 GPFP: 60.73 Salary: $7,500): Here’s a 27-year old with his first career win a couple of months ago and a total of three Top-10s already on the young season.  Malnati comes into this week fresh off of a T6 in Maui where he played exceptionally well with a total score of 17-under on the week.  A good sleeper pick is a name most people won’t think of adding to their roster but can sneak up and bank a ton of points to put you over the competition.  With a “weaker” field this week your sleepers will be by far the most important part of your roster, and we think Malnati (and Kelly) are it.

• GIR Rank: 73rd
• Scrambling: 135th
• Putting Average: 49th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 158th

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Putting: 5th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Sony Open

Fabian Gomez (Golficity Odds 66/1 FPPG: 75.92 GPFP: 60.73 Salary: $7,500): Some would argue that Jerry Kelly would be a solid super-sleeper this week and with his 8 Top 10s (winner in 2003) they may just be correct, however, Gomez has strung together a nice campaign so far this season with 4 of 4 made cuts and 3 Top 25s including his T6 last week in Maui.  He has a great price tag this week and fits in well in this slot.  Gomez’s only enemy is his putter, so let’s hope it stays hot from last week.

• GIR Rank: 27th
• Scrambling: 13th
• Putting Average: 209th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 20th

* Most Notable Stat:  Ball Striking: 4th

Sample DraftKings Roster with Kisner

Sample DraftKings Roster without Kisner

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 3/2): WINNER ($1,180,000)
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 8/1) 5th ($274,000)
• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 18/1): T21 ($78,333)
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 32/1) T10 ($148,000)
• Emiliano Grillo (Golficity Odds 40/1): T18 ($90,000)

Last Week’s Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

• Scott Piercy (Golficity Odds 50/1): T24 ($70,000)

Last Week’s Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Hyundai Tournament of Champions

• Chris Kirk (Golficity Odds 66/1): T24 ($70,000)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”16.98%” bar_text=”9 out of 53 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”28.30%” bar_text=”15 out of 53 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”37.50%” bar_text=”3 out of 8 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Sleeper Report Winners Picked” percent=”12.50%” bar_text=”1 out of 8 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”25.00%” bar_text=”2 out of 8 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”84.90%” bar_text=”45 out of 53 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked (TBD)” percent=”0%” bar_text=”0 out of 0 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Sony Open in Hawaii with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram