Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – 2016 Farmers Insurance Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 Farmers Insurance Open

2016 Farmers Insurance Open Preview

Well, that was easy!  Ok, perhaps not that easy, we’re just that good.

Time for a little pat on the back as we have now successfully picked the winner in the each of the first three events of 2016.  Needless to say, we’ve got the hot hand right now and you can bet we’ll be gearing up to try and make it four in a row at an all-star packed Torrey Pines this week.  We’ll break down last week’s triumph (and brag a bit more) later, but first let’s prepare you for the 2016 Farmers Insurance Open this week.

Many will remember that this was the scene where the new Jason Day reemerged on the PGA TOUR.  It was his 2015 victory that pushed the young Aussie to a new level and soon his name would end up on the top spot in the Official World Rankings—until Jordan snatched the title back.  The returning champion hasn’t played since his Top 10 finish in Maui three weeks ago but still looks to be a powerhouse contender this week.

In other news, have you seen how sharp Rickie Fowler’s game was in Abu Dhabi?  Yes he’ll have to make a trip around the world to get back to California but this kid’s game is in top form right now.  He will be a serious contender and will certainly carry a hefty price tag in salary cap leagues this week.

Current 2016 winners Fabian Gomez (Sony Open in Hawaii) and Emiliano Grillo (Frys.com Open) will also be in the field on a course that they can potentially dominate in the mid-tier fantasy picks spot.

With so much talent in the field there certainly are no easy answers this week so we’ll be digging deep to keep our win streak alive and help try to fill up your pockets with some DraftKings and other league fantasy cash.

 Last Week’s Fantasy Results

In case you missed it, we had both Lingmerth and Dufner in our picks to win.  With the win, we have now successfully picked the last three straight winners as well as going five out of the ten in winners picked for events played this wrap-around season.  Yep, that’s a 50% win rate YTD!

But don’t take our word for it, here’s just one happy Premium Member singing our praises for helping him build his winning rosters:

Congrats Nathan!  It’s always nice spending $39 bucks and winning $448!  Needless to say, our Dufner pick had a lot of people returning to work on Monday with a smile on their face.

@Golficity Duf!! Yessir. Thanks for the ending a great week! No expectations for Farmers ha

— Will Newman (@will_newman4) January 25, 2016

Ok so remember this sample lineup we provided last week to our Premium Members?  If you ran with it, you may just be filthy rich right now.  Just to recap, we had you picking Dufner (1), Lingmerth (2), Lovemark (T6), Kim (T9), DeLeat (T42), Blair (MC).

Here’s a final recap on how all of our tiers fared last week:

Horse Pick:  Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar, or Zach Johnson?

Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 7/1 FPPG: 120.30 GPFP: 120.08 Salary:$12,400):  Reed (-10) ended up making the cut but finished in a disappointing T56 while Zach Johnson missed the cut and Matt Kuchar (-11) finished only 1-stroke better at T49.

Mid-Tier Pick I: Ryan Palmer, Jason Bohn, or Bill Haas?

Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 14/1 FPPG: 105.25 GPFP: 84.20 Salary: $10,100): This one hurt, but obviously our next two picks softened the blow big time.  Bohn missed the cut and Haas (T9) and Palmer (T17) played a bit better.

Mid-Tier Pick II: Leishman or Dufner?

Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds 24/1 FPPG: 76.60 GPFP: 61.28 Salary: $9,800): Obviously this was the “Call-of-the Week” since Dufner won the event and Leishman missed the cut, despite those “free” websites telling you to pick him over Dufner.

Low Tier Picks (2):  Lingmerth, Blair, and/or Henley?

David Lingmerth (Golficity Odds 38/1 FPPG: 79.50 GPFP: 80.00 Salary: $8,500): It was smart leaving Henley on the bench last week although the best combination would have been Lingmerth and Henley since Lingmerth finished solo 2nd after a playoff with Dufner.

Zac Blair (Golficity Odds 45/1 FPPG: 91.80 GPFP: 118.46 Salary: $8,300): Missed cut here, but if you had Lingmerth you definitely would have been bailed out here.

Sleeper Pick 1

Si Woo Kim (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 67.6 GPFP: 68.26 Salary: $7,400): Solid sleeper pick this week with a T9 finish and as nice chunk of DraftKings points.

Sleeper Pick 2

Jamie Lovemark (Golficity Odds 66/1 FPPG: 68.50 GPFP: 87.00 Salary: $7,200): This guy was a solid contender even though we fought some hard criticism about this selection all week.  Lovemark made a bad double bogey mid-round on Sunday which bumped him back down the stretch—were it not for this small mistake he could have won the event.  Jamie ended up finishing T6 and helped us round out our biggest cashing DraftKings roster in history!

The 2016 Farmers Insurance Open Field

Prepare for more studs joining the field this week as defending champion and OWGR No. 2 Jason Day makes his second experience of the season.  Day will be joined by the red hot recent Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship winner Rickie Fowler and hometown boy Phil Mickleson who played pretty well last week at La Quinta.  This will mark Phil’s 20th trip to Torrey Pines for the Farmers and he’ll be looking to win his first overall event since 2013.

Speaking of Mickelson, Australian teenager Ryan Ruffels who took some cash off of Mickelson in a friendly wager not to long ago, will make his professional debut this week.

For more, here is the full field for this week’s 2016 Farmers Insurance Open.

The Course

Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) measures in at a lengthy 7,698 yards and will play as a par 72.   This track presents a Pebble Beach feel being carved into picturesque cliffs facing the Pacific Ocean.

Known to most as “Tiger’s course” (he’s won here an amazing eight times in his career) Torrey Pines went through an upgrade in 2001 which helped it land the 2008 U.S. Open.

This week’s event will be played on both the South and North Courses (7,052/72) with players seeing each course once before the weekend.

torreypinesgolfshop on Instagram: “Ranked America’s 20 Toughest Golf Courses by Golf Digest. Rees Jones created a tremendous challenge for the @farmersinsopen just days away and the upcoming #usopen2021 #TorreyPines #torreypinessouth @golfdigest #golfdigest Photo: Stephen Szurlej”

torreypinesgolfshop shared a post on Instagram: “Ranked America’s 20 Toughest Golf Courses by Golf Digest. Rees Jones created a tremendous challenge for the @farmersinsopen just days away and the upcoming #usopen2021 #TorreyPines #torreypinessouth @golfdigest #golfdigest Photo: Stephen Szurlej”. Follow their account to see 240 posts.

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Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA

Rain will threaten the final round on Sunday with a 60% chance of rain moving in that afternoon.  The rest of the week should look a lot like last week in La Quinta just with a little bit cooler temperatures all around.

Last Year’s Results from the Farmers Insurance Open

Jason Day started his dominant 2015 campaign here at Torrey Pines last year with his impressive playoff victory over J.B. Holmes.  Keep in mind that Day was coming off a thumb injury which he nursed in 2014.  Jason showed the golf world later last year how good he can really be when fully healthy.

It was however no walk in the park for Day who almost didn’t make it to the sudden death round with Holmes but ended up making a crucial par after his chip-shot ran through and off the green.  Day and Holmes both birdied 18 in the first sudden death hole which eliminated Harris English and 2014 champion Scott Stallings.  On the very next hole (the par 3-16th) Holmes wound up missing the green and Day stuck it to within 15-feet which ultimately set him up for the victory.

Day went on to win four more times that year including claiming his first Major.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YM17BADymW4&end=180&width=742&height=419[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday (Jan 27, 2016) – Friday (Jan 28, 2016) 3pm-7pm (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday (Jan 29, 2016) – Sunday (Jan 30, 2016): 1pm – 2:30 pm EST (Golf Channel), 3pm-6:30pm EST (CBS)

• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM
  • Thursday (Jan 27, 2016) – Friday (Jan 28, 2016): 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
  • Saturday (January 29, 2016) – Sunday (Jan 30, 2016): 2:00 pm – 10:00 pm EST

• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra App for iOS and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Farmers Insurance Open this Week

While we’re starting to see some action from sites like Fantasy Feud and Stars Draft, the real big fantasy golf action is still on DraftKings, especially with this week’s “Winter Classic” kick off.

• PGA $200K Winter Golf Classic ($100 Entry or Jan Jam Entry Ticket): If you we’re one of the lucky players that used our picks last week and earned an entry to this big game, you’re set up for the potential to win the $30,000 first prize.  The payouts for 2nd ($20K) and 3rd ($10K) aren’t too shabby either.  What’s great about this event is that the odds are little more in your favor with the field being limited to only 2,222 players (max) and we’re sure it probably won’t even get that big.  The good news for you this week is that this game pays up to double your entry if you finish in the final payout placing of 475th.

• PGA $130K Medium Winter Golf Classic ($130K Guaranteed): For 1/5th the cost of an entry into the big Winter Classic event, you can play in a field with 7500 other players for a chance to win the top prize of $15,000.  Payouts will be distributed to places up to 1,493rd.

• PGA $450K Drive The Green ($100,000 to 1st!):  So here’s the biggest take this week.  First prize here gets $100K but the field can stretch to as much as 172,500 players.  But at a $3 entry, you can win $5 back if you finish in 37,705th place.  The odds here a much smaller when it comes to winning the big prize given a field this size but you can run a few rosters at $3 each to take a crack at a nice payout.

Know of more exciting fantasy golf contests this week that we might have missed?  If so, be sure to let us know in the comments below.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2016 Farmers Insurance Open

The big question is, can we make it four weeks in a row?  It goes to show you that your horse pick doesn’t always have to win the race.  Reed was our top pick last week and he finished T56, but if you have a solid sleeper and mid/low tier pick, you dodged that “favorite” bullet and still came out ahead.

Yardage wise, this will be the longest track on schedule so far this season so distance off the tee will be helpful, but it doesn’t mean everything.  Regardless, be sure to hone in on a few key distance scoring stats such as Par 3 efficiency at 200+ yards (three of the par 3’s at Torrey Pines are long) and obviously driving distance and accuracy.

Torrey is a tough track and it usually ranks in the Top 3 toughest par 72’s on TOUR.  Also, it consistently ranks inside the top 10 in the category of most challenging fairways to hit, greens in regulation and scrambling.

As we attempt to successfully pick our 6th winner (of 11 events) this season, we’ll be considering the following key stats in detail:

• GIR
• Scrambling
• Scoring Average
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
• Driving Distance

It’s certainly a wise play to also dive into those distance stats when you build your roster this week.

We’re feeling pretty good about this week, so let’s keep the streak alive!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

(Note: Keep in mind most of these 2016 statistics are a result of only one or two events for most of these players and are therefore limited in their predictive capacity.)

Horse Pick: Jason Day, Rickie Fowler,  or Dustin Johnson?

Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 8/1 FPPG: 106.75 GPFP: 135.57 Salary:$11,600): Really tough call here, but we need to weigh all the options and really dive into the stats for this one.  Rickie’s game was on point last week in Abu Dhabi and it seems like he’s firing on all cylinders and about to headline an event hosted by one of his biggest sponsors.  Day didn’t look bad at the Hyundai TOC and he won here last year so he’d obviously be a solid pick as well, but Rickie just has the momentum and experience so far in 2016 and that’s where we’re putting our money this week.  Dustin Johnson has the long ball to consider, but he hasn’t looked sharp enough to outplay Day and Fowler right now.

Rickie’s win last week doesn’t contribute to his PGA TOUR stats below since it was a European TOUR event, but needless to say, it shouldn’t matter.  He pummeled a field that contained the likes of Spieth, McIlroy, and Stenson and he could be trending towards becoming the #3 player in the world.  Fowler comes in this week with a hefty GPFP (135.57) and can even spare you some salary money ($400) by opting for him over Day.

• GIR Rank: 29th
• Driving Distance: 58th
• Scrambling: 36th
• Scoring Average: 26th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 67th

* Most Notable Stat:  All-Around Ranking: 2nd

Mid-Tier Pick I: Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker, or Patrick Reed?

Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 16/1 FPPG: 99.5 GPFP: 123.38 Salary: $10,900): Rose will make his 2016 debut on the PGA TOUR this week and sure it’s a bit of a gamble to pick a new face over two trending players who have some West Coast golf under their belt already.  But Rose is never to be counted out.  He finished T6 in his only FedExCup points event this season (Frys.com) and followed it up with a 13th place finish a month and half later at the Hero World Challenge.  Justin hasn’t played competitive golf in a while, but neither did Jason Day before notching a Top 10 in Maui a few weeks ago—just because they’re not playing on Tour doesn’t mean they are not grinding out practice sessions like crazy.  Rose managed to finished T7 or better (including a win) in six of his last seven events on the European TOUR and we like his power and accuracy at Torrey Pines this week.

(Justin doesn’t have enough events played on the PGA TOUR this to yield any stats)

• GIR Rank: NA
• Driving Distance: NA
• Scrambling: NA
• Scoring Average: NA
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: NA

* Most Notable Stat:  NA

Mid-Tier Pick II: Charles Howell III, Bill Haas, or J.B. Holmes?

Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 26/1 FPPG: 85.60 GPFP: 107.05 Salary: $9,400): You can coin flip this one to death because all three of these guys have been stellar as of late.  That said, we have to pick one and we think Haas is overpriced and Holmes is a big question mark.  At least with Howell you’re likely going to grab a made-cut with a solid finish.  Charles has played in seven events this season and if you ignore his Shriner’s finish (70th), he’s finished no worse than T17 in the other six appearances.  He has plenty of power off the tee as of late and possesses a really aggressive and consistent short game.  He might not be the sexiest pick but just take a look at some of his stats:

• GIR Rank: 33rd
• Driving Distance: 21st
• Scrambling: 27th
• Scoring Average: 10th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 51st

* Most Notable Stat:  Scoring Average: 10th

Low-Tier Picks (2): Gary Woodland, Harris English, and/or Jamie Lovemark?

Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 40/1 FPPG: 79.67 GPFP: 87.63 Salary: $8,700): Woodland is a long ball hitter who knows how to locate the greens in regulation.  Perhaps even more importantly Gary has never missed a cut in five attempts here with his best finish coming in 2014 where he took home a T10.  Sure Harris English could be a solid contender here as well but Woodland has better numbers as of late, so he’s worth the extra $200.  His biggest enemy this week will be scrambling.  If he can bring this A-game when scrambling this week on this long course (with his booming drives), Gary can find himself in contention for the win on Sunday.

• GIR Rank: 16th
• Driving Distance: 1st
• Scrambling: 168th
• Scoring Average: 75th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 1st

* Most Notable Stat:  Scoring Average: 10th

Jamie Lovemark (Golficity Odds 44/1 FPPG: 76.86 GPFP: 96.84 Salary: $8,300): We took a chance on Lovemark last week after his stellar play at the Sony and he certainly did not disappoint us.  The 28-year old is one of the longest hitters off the tee on TOUR (11th in total driving distance) and has posted some solid rounds over the last three events (T9, T7, T6).  Like Woodland, he can hit the long ball but his scramble game is certainly less questionable than Woodland.  In fact, we might even lean towards probably picking Woodland over Lovemark (if we had to), but essentially its a coin flip between the two.  That said, try to get them both on your squad if possible.

• GIR Rank: 103rd
• Driving Distance: 11th
• Scrambling: 25th
• Scoring Average: 12th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 30th

* Most Notable Stat:  Scoring Average: 10th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

Fabian Gomez (Golficity Odds 60/1 FPPG: 95.20 GPFP: 107.58 Salary: $7,700): Gomez is coming into Torrey Pines fresh off of his win at the Sony, and right after his T6 in Maui.  He’s a different golfer as compared to last season with a new attitude and a different swing, so don’t put too much emphasis on his missed cuts here over the years.  Gomez has OK power off the tee with some decent accuracy and but what he lacks in total distance he makes up for in his ability to hit greens and scrambled when needed.  He also currently ranks 10th on Tour in Total Strokes-Gained and it doesn’t seem like he’a about to slow down anytime soon.  As with Lovemark, we’re back on the Gomez train this week.

• GIR Rank: 12th
• Driving Distance: 75th
• Scrambling: 25th
• Scoring Average: 8th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 15th

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes Gained Total: 10th

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open

Smylie Kaufman (Golficity Odds 75/1 FPPG: 91,79 GPFP: 111.06 Salary: $7,300): What a season this 25 year old is off too!  Kaufman is part of the 2016 rookie class and he’s already racked up a win, four total Top 25s, and a perfect 7 for 7 in made cuts.  As far as stats go, Smylie is a decent ball striker with power off the tee and a solid approach game.  He’s a rookie when it comes to Torrey Pines experience, but that doesn’t bother us at all.  Any way you slice it Kaufman is a great pick here for just 7,300 bucks.

• GIR Rank: 50th
• Driving Distance: 47th
• Scrambling: 96th
• Scoring Average: 28th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 32nd

* Most Notable Stat:  Birdie Average 10th

Sample DraftKings Roster with Fowler

Sample DraftKings Roster without Fowler

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the CareerBuilder Challenge

• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 7/1): T56 ($12,540)
• Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 14/1): MC
• Jason Dufner (Golficity Odds 24/1): WINNER ($1,044,000)
• David Lingmerth (Golficity Odds 38/1): 2nd ($626,400)
• Zac Blair (Golficity Odds 45/1): MC

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the CareerBuilder Challenge

• Si Woo Kim (Golficity Odds 50/1): T9 ($162,400)

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Career Builder Challenge

• Jamie Lovemark (Golficity Odds 66/1): T6 ($194,300)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

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Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 Farmers Insurance Open with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Flickr