Fantasy Golf Predictions – DP World Tour Championship

European Tour Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the DP World Tour Championship

The 2016 DP World Tour Championship Fantasy Preview

The conclusion of the 2016 European Tour season is upon us as the top-60 players from the Race to Dubai are invited to Jumeriah Golf Estates to crown a champion at the DP World Tour Championship.  The venue has hosted this prestigious event since the Race to Dubai began in 2009 and features 7,675 yards of par 72 golf with nearly 100 bunkers featured on the course.

When all is said-and-done there will be an overall winner in the race who will earn a nice bonus of $1.25 million with the remaining top-10 taking home a share of the remaining $3.75 million prize pool.

While the top-60 players in the race are invited, there are a couple names that cannot make the trip, including No. 35 Russell Knox and No. 60 Graeme McDowell.  This has allowed for both Raphael Jacquelin and Felipe Aguilar to earn an invite.  They will not have a shot at the over top prize, though, as there are only four players given that distinction heading into the week.

The man controlling his destiny will be No. 1 Henrik Stenson who is followed by Masters Champion Danny Willett, Alex Noren, and FedExCup Champion Rory McIlroy.  Finishing off the top-10 are players from four different countries in No. 5 Tyrell Hatton and No. 9 Chris Wood out of England, No. 6 Branden Grace and No. 8 Louis Oosthuizen from South Africa, No. 7 Rafa Cabrera Bello from Spain, and No. 10 Torbjorn Olesen who hails from Denmark.  The total of six countries which are represented in the top-10 is just the tip of the iceberg as 22 different countries will be featured throughout the week.  Watch out for the likes of Bernd Wiesberger, Lee Westwood, Andy Sullivan, and Martin Kaymer who attempt to make the leap from just outside the top-10 into the prize pool.

With this being an event that features the best players over the course of the year, it is no surprise that the past four years has been dominated by Rory McIlroy (2012, 2015) and Henrik Stenson (2013, 2014) who are both in the top-four again this year.  In McIlroy’s two victories, he combined to defeat runner-up Justin Rose (2012) and Andy Sullivan (2015) by three strokes while Stenson defeated his closest competition in Ian Poulter (2013) and the trio of Victor Dubuisson, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Rose by eight strokes.

McIlroy was able to hold off Sullivan by just a single stroke in last year’s installment of the tournament as he capped off his third season being named the European Tour’s top player.  Stenson’s win by six in 2013 matched Lee Westwood in the tournament’s first year (2009) as he earned the best aggregate (263) and score to par (-25) in the event’s history.

With a mere 60 players in the field, it will be important once again to differentiate your lineup in daily fantasy.  This does not mean just taking players who will be low owned because they have little chance to perform well, but rather to look at the most optimal lineups and see where the trends are tilting.  Once you can do this you can pinpoint players who may be under-owned across the board.

Now let’s dive into a few names for both cash games and other DFS contests who we believe will perform well in the upcoming week.

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The DP World Tour Championship Fantasy Picks and Predictions

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The DP World Tour Championship Fantasy Picks

Charl Schwartzel – $9,100 – Before we start with Schwartzel, we want to be clear that we think McIlroy is the clear top dog here with Stenson following closely behind, but we believe an approach of high-end talent at what seems like discounted prices could be the way to go in a more contrarian approach.  Schwartzel is a player who is used to competing in events that are high pressure and over the last calendar year has been able to rank in the top-25 at two WGC events and two major tournaments.  He does not venture overseas often, but tends to put up tremendous performances when he does, and he hit double-digits in career European Tour victories with two earlier this season.  Over his 11 European Tour sanctioned events in 2016, Schwartzel ranked in the top-30 in stroke average (70.71, 24^th on Tour), driving distance (302.3 yards per, 13^th on Tour), greens in regulation (71.9%, 29^th on Tour), and putts per GIR (1.752, 30^th on Tour).  The former Masters Champion checks off every box you’d like to be competitive here thanks to his fourth last year and could see a repeat showing in the coming week.

Francesco Molinari – $8,900 – Molinari tied Schwartzel last year with a fourth-place finish, following up a strong 16^th in 2014.  He has been consistently putting up huge weeks in his limited time this year, and over a mere seven events has vaulted up to 17^th in the standings.  A career-best average finish of 20.33 has been aided by a win in the Italian Open and a runner-up in the Open de France while he is fresh off a sixth at the HSBC Champions and fourth at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.  His elite stroke average (69.54, 2^nd on Tour) comes from an incredibly accurate driver (74.6%, 2^nd on Tour) and the best putter over the year (1.658 putts per GIR, best on Tour).  Molinari is keeping his outings limited and should be fresh as he tees it up in Dubai.

Sergio Garcia – $8,700 – At 36-years-old, the 15^th ranked player in the world continues to be competitive each and every week he is out there.  Over his last 10 outings, Garcia has a victory at the Byron Nelson Classic and four other top-10s.  He steps it up in the most important times as evidenced by a fifth at both the U.S. Open and Open Championship while representing his country with an eighth at the Rio Olympics.  In total he has been in the top-10 at seven of his 12 European Tour events played, leading to a ridiculous average finish of 17.58.  Overall his putting hasn’t been strong, but all other parts of his game are elite and should allow him to be near the top when Sunday rolls around.

Bernd Wiesberger – $8,500 – Weisberger has had one of the best seasons in 2016 despite not being able to get over the hump and earn a win.  Over the course of his 26 tournaments, the 31-year-old out of Austria has tallied seven top-10s and has been the runner-up at both the KLM Open and British Masters since the start of September.  He is coming off another strong showing last week with a solo fourth thanks to a 70 or better in all four rounds of the Turkish Airlines Open.  His two visits to Dubai have resulted in a 16^th (2014) and 17^th (2015), so experience will not be an issue.  Watch for Wiesberger to nail nearly every green in regulation (75.4% GIR, 7^th on Tour) and continue scoring at a torrid pace (70.31 scoring average, 6^th on Tour) over the four rounds this week.

Richard Bland – $7,400 – Bland has yet to let us down and is simply the most consistent golfer playing on the European Tour right now.  His low salary allows some relief to stack the top of your lineup and with it comes a nearly guaranteed top-25.  Now with 60 players, that may not be exactly what you want as his ceiling is nowhere as high as many others in the field, but as a cash game play or money saver he is pure gold.  Bland has made it into the money at 26-of-29 events (90%) and has scored no worse than 69.5 on DraftKings in his last 10 tournaments.  The late bloomer has yet to earn a win over his nearly 400 events, but it’s hard to argue with an average finish of 26.93 and 70.36 stroke average (8^th on Tour) at this price point.

Thongchai Jaidee – $7,300 – Jaidee is one of the best players to come out of Asia and although he is past his prime, the 47-year-old is playing at a high level and comes into this final event ranked 18^th in the Race to Dubai.  He proved he still has what it takes to win earlier in the season when he topped the leaderboard at the Open de France and comes into Dubai on the heels of five consecutive top-30s.  Despite not possessing the length he once had with his clubs, he remains one of the best putters with 1.746 putts per GIR (19^th on Tour) and 28.7 putts per round (18^th on Tour); leading to the 25th-best scoring average (70.78).  Jaidee could still win an event such as this one and may put up the consistent performance needed to do so.

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Cover photo via Instagram