Fantasy Golf Predictions – 2013 Tampa Bay Championship

Fantasy Golf Predictions for the 2013 Tampa Bay Championship at Innisbrook March 14 – 17, 2013.

The Course:  Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead), measures 7,340 yards and plays as par 71. The fairways are engulfed in trees and the course has rolling terrain with picturesque landscaping.  Designed in 1972 by Larry Packard, this track offers a different visual as opposed to the flatter layouts found on most surrounding Florida courses.  Double doglegs present significant challenges on two par-5s, demanding accuracy and skill to reach the green in two. The final three holes have been named the “Snake Pit,” (like PGA National’s “Bear Trap”) with two tough par-4s wrapped around the 215-yard 17^th par 3. The Copperhead Course has been a regular stop for this tournament (known as the Transitions Championship last year) since 2000. Striking in beauty and challenge, the surrounding lakes and ponds are home to abundant wildlife; including fox squirrels, bald eagles, alligators, blue herons, and many other types of water fowl. With the fairways and greens mostly free of residences, Copperhead provides the opportunity to enjoy golf the way nature intended.

Innisbrook Resort. Photo byDan Perry

The Weather in Palm Harbor, FL (from Weather.com):

• Round 1: Thursday (Mar 14) 65 degrees, 0% chance of rain, sunny
• Round 2: Friday (Mar 15) 72 degrees, 0% chance of rain, mostly sunny
• Round 3: Saturday (Mar 16) 77 degrees, 0% chance of rain, mostly cloudy
• Round 4: Sunday (Mar 17) 80 degrees, 10% chance of rain, partly cloudy

2012 Results: Luke Donald burst through a four-man playoff with a birdie on the first extra hole to win this event in 2012. The victory returned Donald to No. 1 in the world rankings after two weeks behind Rory McIlroy, who eventually wrestled the title back later in the year. Donald carded a 5-under 66 to get into the playoff with Jim Furyk, Robert Garrigus and Sang-Moon Bae.  These three shared runner-up honors on a day in which six players were tied for the lead at one point coming down the stretch. The biggest disappointment belonged to Ernie Els, whose bogey-bogey finish cost him the lead, a spot in the final playoff berth, and eventually an invite to the Masters.

Notes:  Donald, who lives right in the Palm Beach Gardens, will be going for his third Florida victory in the past three years. Winning at Disney to end the 2011 season, Luke locked up the PGA TOUR money title and hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in his past seven Florida starts. Although he played poorly at Doral last week (the 18^th hole just ate him up) we’re still putting him in our picks this week.

Look out for Robert Garrigus, who was in that 2012 playoff.  Garrigus has five runner-up finishes in the past 14 months. Another 2012 playoff contender here, Jim Furyk, is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2012 that also included a late collapse at the U.S. Open, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and Ryder Cup. His 2010 victory at Innisbrook was one of three on the way to his FedExCup crown. He certainly knows this course well.

Top 5 Fantasy Golf Picks/Odds to Win:

• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 8/1): Scott shared third place at the WGC-Cadillac and tore it up in the final round. Adam scored progressively lower in every round, capping off his week with a field-low 64. Scott also led the field in total driving and ranked T13 in greens hit.  He looked good at Doral and we think he will carry that momentum into this week.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 11/1): Kuchar didn’t look good at Doral where he didn’t deviate from par until a Sunday 71. Matt hit half of his greens in regulation for the week but we like his play so far this year and we can’t forget his T12 at Copperhead in 2009 and T10 last year.
• Luke Donald (Golficity Odds 15/1): The defending champion led last year’s field in strokes gained-putting and ranked sixth in scrambling. Although the Blue Monster ate him up and spit him out last week, he led the field in proximity to the hole and ranked T13 in greens hit. Plus, Luke knows this track well…
• Sergio Garcia (Golficity Odds 222/1): Garcia is coming off a T3 at the WGC-Cadillac after putting one in the water on 18 in Round 4. Without the penalty Sergio could have had a T2 and otherwise played great.  Doral was his 12th straight top 25 dating back to his Wyndham win last season. Overall Garcia ranked T2 in greens in regulation at TPC Blue Monster in Miami. With top 20s in his last two starts at Copperhead Sergio looks to have his game in tune for 2013.
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 27/1): After finishing 3^rd at Dove Mountain, Day was challenged at Doral with a T33 at the WGC-Cadillac. Although he had a second-round 66, he ranked 13th in strokes gained-putting for the week. Day posted a career-best T20 at Copperhead last year and placed T3 in par-3 scoring average.

Sleeper Fantasy Golf Picks/Odds to Win:

• Michael Thompson (Golficity Odds 45/1): Thompson quietly charged up the leaderboard last week at Doral immediately following his first PGA win at The Honda Classic.  Finishing T8 at the WGC-Cadillac, Thompson carried over the momentum, but his best scoring didn’t show up until the later rounds. Michael ranked second in fairways hit and T9 overall in greens in regulation at Doral. Keep in mind however that Thompson has only played this track once professionally and tied for 16th there in 2012.
• Robert Garrigus (Golficity Odds 66/1): Garrigus finished runner up in the playoff here last year and has 2 top-10s in 2013 but is coming off a tough 65^th at Doral where he played very poorly.  Other than Doral, Garrigus has 5 top-25s out of 6 events played. Long shot in way, but he certainly could surprise this week and is definitely worth a look.

Last Week’s Fantasy Golf Predictions Results (The WGC-Cadillac Championship)

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win:

• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 10/1):  T35
• Charl Schwartzel (Golficity Odds 14/1): T16
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 19/1): T8
• Lee Westwood (Golficity Odds 25/1): T25
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 33/1): T33

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win:

• Charles Howell III (Golficity Odds 50/1): T12
• Michael Thompson (75/1):  T8

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