Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – WGC Mexico Championship

2018 WGC Mexico Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Lips are starting to be licked with TV ads for The Masters starting to be shown, and this first WGC event of the year is a nice little warm up for the Augusta test.

We’re off to Mexico this week for the World Golf Championship’s tournament south of the border, and a high-quality field will assemble at Golf Club de Chapultepec to battle it out for the big prize.

Justin Thomas will have a strut in his step after taking the honors at the Honda Classic last week. Another fascinating test – just seven days after the punishing conditions at Riviera, JT triumphed on the first hole of a playoff over Luke List, a young talent who is surely getting closer to a first PGA TOUR title.

As it was, the experience and winning mentality of Thomas proved too much as the FedExCup champion lifted his seventh trophy in just over a year.

Justin Thomas reacts after a putt on the 18th green during a playoff…

Justin Thomas reacts after a putt on the 18th green during a playoff hole in the final round of the Honda Classic at PGA National Resort and Spa on February 25, 2018 in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

What do we know about this Chapultepec test? Well, not too much, to tell you the truth as last year was the first instance in which they had hosted an elite-level event. But we do know that the picturesque setting offers a healthy test to the world’s best players, with the densely tree-lined fairways offering a unique assignment and unique sighter just a matter of weeks shy of Augusta.

Measuring 7,267 yards for its Par 71, the parkland-style layout is made up of Kikuyu fairways and Bentgrass/Poa greens….not all too dissimilar to Riviera, then!

So who are the outsider plays that you should be looking out for this week?

Tony Finau – Vegas Odds 50/1 – We have hinted at correlating form between this event and that of the Genesis Open, given that Riviera seems to be an idea rehearsal for this test at Chapultepec. If that trend is proven to be correct, then Finau could be another powerplay this week.

He finished T2 behind Bubba in the Pacific Palisades, ranking first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and perhaps playing on a course with several holes framed by trees suits Finau. He is often wayward off the tee, and yet he was as strong as anybody with the big stick in hand at Riviera. That is something to note for the future.

The main issue for Finau is the flat stick, which often leads him to a path of self-destruction out on the course; if you rank sixth on Tour for SG: Tee-to-Green and have been consistently good for 18 months or so, then clearly there is a reason why he has just one minor-level PGA TOUR title to his name.

The good news is that the 28-year-old tends to save his best performances for Poa/Bentgrass events: second at Silverado, T6 at Torrey Pines and T2 at Riviera already this term is testament to that.

You sense that Finau is knocking on the door of the PGA TOUR elite; he just needs that one defining win to act as confirmation. Maybe it will come this week?

Xander Schauffele – Vegas Odds 60/1 – It has been a rather tawdry start to the 2018 campaign for the Rookie of the Year, but the signs are that just lately Schauffele has started to find his groove again.

T17 at the Phoenix Open was followed by T9 at Riviera, the latter of which featured a pair of closing 68s to confirm that the TOUR Championship winner is back to somewhere near his best.

The 24-year-old won his first PGA TOUR title on the Bentgrass of the Old White TPC (Greenbrier Classic), and with his tee-to-green game improving at Riviera there are some nice converging trends to follow with Schauffele.

Webb Simpson – Vegas Odds 66/1 – A phrase we did not think we’d be writing any time soon: Webb Simpson’s putting is on fire!

He was one of the worst affected by the anchored putting ban, and went from a major winner to an also-ran in the blink of an eye, and it’s no surprise to learn that the four-time PGA TOUR winner hasn’t entered the winner’s circle since 2013.

But he is finally getting to grips with a traditional putting stroke, it seems, and he ranked second for Strokes Gained: Putting at PGA National on his way to a T5 finish.

In his last four starts, Simpson has two top-five finishes to his name. And of those 14 rounds (he missed the cut at the Phoenix Open) eight have been in the 60s, six have been 67 or lower and there have been none worse than 72.

Those stats are only of minor relevance based upon the ease of scoring at the events mentioned, but it shows that Simpson is playing consistently well at the moment no matter whether it is a birdie-fest (T4 at the Sony Open) or more of a grind (T5 at the Honda Classic).

Chez Reavie – Vegas Odds 66/1 – A quite remarkable stat: Chez Reavie sits second in the Total Birdies count for the 2018 season.

For such a short hitter, that shows how dialled-in Reavie’s long irons have been, and if he can continue that approach this week he should deliver some fantastic returns for gamers.

The 36-year-old created chances to win both the AT&T Pebble Beach and the Phoenix Open, and while his lack of length was penalized at Riviera he should be back on more comfortable ground here.

Dylan Frittelli – Vegas Odds 70/1 – The South African offered a mere hint of his talents at the Honda Classic last week, finishing solo eleventh and not shooting a round of higher than 72 in what were supremely tough conditions.

Frittelli has emerged as a semi-prolific winner on the European Tour, and it is obvious he is brimming with confidence at the moment. He will target a full PGA TOUR card next season, and decent showings in the WGC events is a huge step in the right direction on that front.

This is his debut at Chapultepec, but there’s no reason why the layout won’t suit. It features the Kikuyu grass he is used to from his homeland, while the tree-lined, parkland style of the course is something that Frittelli is well accustomed to on the European Tour.

He has bagged top-tens at a couple of similar tracks – similar in profile, at least – in the Maybank Championship and Shenzhen International.