Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – Arnold Palmer Invitational

2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report

For every week on the PGA TOUR where one of the big names obliges for punters who have backed him with one of the sportsbooks, there’s the other side of the coin where a completely unexpected result occurs.

Keith Mitchell was a 200/1 shot to win the Honda Classic, and for good reason: he’d missed the cut in four of his previous six starts and had another T73 finish to his name.

He was a no hoper then, right? Well, perhaps not, as he claimed the first professional title of his career on a leaderboard full of surprise names.

Keith Mitchell wins the Honda Classic during the final round at PGA…

Keith Mitchell wins the Honda Classic during the final round at PGA National Resort and Spa on March 3 in West Palm Beach, FL. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

The 27-year-old navigated the Bear Trap with aplomb on Sunday, and while the likes of Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka were chasing hard Mitchell held his nerve at the last to sink a 15 footer that would secure one of the most unlikeliest wins in quite sometime on the PGA TOUR.

So the Florida Swing is well underway, and the action continues on the East Coast this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a fantastic love letter to ‘The King’.

Arnie purchased the Bay Hill Club, which has acted as the host since the mid-1970s, and spent the last few decades of his live tinkering with a track that became something of a labor of love for the multiple major champion.

For many years it was a devilish track that separated the wheat from the chaff, but in 2014 some changes were made that saw some trees removed, fairways widened and new, softer sand added to the bunkers, which made sand saves a whole bunch easier.

Naturally, scoring has improved ever since, and now a winning mark in the late teens is expected.

This being golf in Florida, the wind is the main source of defense for Bay Hill, but with the breeze expected to be minimal this week – and with rain early in the week set to soften the greens – this could, and we must stress that word *could*, be a much easier edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational than we are accustomed to.

Does that lend itself to a sleeper winning this week, like Mitchell in Palm Beach? Only time will tell, but here are five sleeper picks who could flourish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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The Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report

Billy Horschel – Vegas Odds 50/1 – When analyzing a player’s form, typically it is smart to value their long-term ball-striking numbers over the often short-term nature of a hot putter.

But with B-Ho, we’re willing to make an exception as we know the class he brings to the table.

The Floridan loves playing on home soil and is totally at home on Bermuda; as evidenced by his rank of first for SG: Putting at PGA National.

Horschel has never missed a cut at Bay Hill and has a pair of top-20s to his name, and if he drives a bit better than he has of late – and maintains his hot run on the greens – you would expect him to post a personal best at this layout this week.

Ian Poulter – Vegas Odds 50/1 – A rich vein of form brings Ian Poulter to mind this week.

The Englishman has recorded four back-to-back top-ten finishes, including T3 last time out at the WGC-Mexico.

He’s striking the ball as well as he’s ever done, and at a venue that appeals – eight straight cuts made, including five finishes of T21 or better – that bodes well.

Poults has been driving the ball particularly well this term, and if he makes some of his trademark putts in Florida then he cold add another top-10 to his collection at the very least.

Charles Howell III – Vegas Odds 60/1 – In ten trips to Bay Hill, Chucky has never missed a cut.

That’s a fine record in itself, and when you add into the conversation just how well he has been playing of late that adds to the intrigue.

You may recall him winning on the Bermuda of the Sea Island club earlier in the season, and a couple of his most beloved events – THE PLAYERS Championship and the Sony Open – are also played on the surface.

Long and straight off the tee and a decent putter by anybody’s measure, Charles Howell III is a sound play this week.

Keegan Bradley – Vegas Odds 66/1 – After a slow start to the campaign, Keegan Bradley is just starting to go through the gears.

An opening round of 66 at the Genesis Open was matched by a closing 65 in the WGC-Mexico, and so you might surmise that the world number 32 isn’t a million miles away from his best form.

The Eastern side of the country holds many good memories for Bradley, with his PGA Championship victory coming in Georgia and his career-resurrecting triumph in the BMW Championship up in Pennsylvania.

Another with strong course form in the bag (six straight cuts made, two top-three finishes), Keegan holds plenty of appeal this week.

Jason Kokrak – Vegas Odds 66/1 – The layout at Bay Hill allows Jason Kokrak to show off the highlight of his game: those long-range approaches that plop gently into the centre of the green.

One of the best in the business from 175-225 yards, Kokrak is also long and straight off the tee too, and he just looks perfect for this layout; evidenced by a pair of top-10s here.

The 33-year-old heads to Bay Hill on the back of a top-ten at the Honda Classic too, so everything looks in place for another strong showing.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.61%” bar_text=”3 out of 83 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”13.25%” bar_text=”11 out of 83 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”40.96%” bar_text=”34 out of 83 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”5.88%” bar_text=”1 out of 17 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”5.88%” bar_text=”1 out of 17 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”66.26%” bar_text=”55 out of 83 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover photo via Instagram