Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the HP Byron Nelson Championship May 15th – 18th, 2014

Last Week’s Fantasy Notes

With Furyk and Speith working their way into the mix on Sunday we found ourselves fixated on a possible four winners picked in the last five weeks, but with Jordan’s fourth round struggles and Furyk (once again) left waiting in the clubhouse for a potential playoff, we’ll just have to settle for yet another $2+ million dollar week in fantasy earnings with four Top 6 finishes out of our 7 picks (2, T4, T4, and T6). So, no winner, but overall, another strong week, totaling roughly $2.5 million in total fantasy earnings and making a huge splash in a few of our DraftStreet leagues.  With a little bit of an ‘easier’ task ahead of us this week, we’re looking forward to racking up even more cash and prizes for our premium members.

This Week’s Tournament Preview

The HP Byron Nelson marks the start of a four event stretch before the world’s elite head back east for the 2014 US Open at Pinehurst come June. Last year’s winner, Sang-Moon Bae will be in the field this week to defend his title along with 151 other contenders (and 10 potential alternates). Weather will not be an issue all week as sunny skies and southern warmth should fill the Texas air from Thursday to Sunday.

Signature Moments: HP Byron Nelson Championship

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The Field

It’s been an impressive run for Dallas native Jordan Spieth who, in just his second PGA TOUR season, has moved up to the No. 8 spot in the official world rankings. Spieth came up short again at the PLAYERS last week, which brings about a degree of concern regarding his ability to close but proves that he can hang in big events. The 20 year old now has six Top 10 finishes this season in just fourteen events and will join up with recent HP Nelson winners Jason Dufner (2012) and Keegan Bradley (2011) in a field that includes nine of the top 25 in this week’s rankings. Matt Kuchar who ranks 5^th in the rankings will be fighting for a chance to move closer to the No. 1 spot with a win this week, but look out for big names like Dustin Johnson, Jimmy Walker, and 2014 PLAYERS Champion Martin Kaymer who be fighting to stop him.

The Course

TPC Four Seasons Resort measures in at a (relatively) short 7,166 yards and plays as a par 70. This course was originally designed by Jay Morrish in 1983 but underwent a major face-lift seven years ago that included the addition of larger, more undulating greens, which will force players to astutely utilize slopes to nestle their approach shots closer to the cup. A lot of penalties are recorded on this course as mishits will often lead to runoffs into areas of disaster – approach shot precision is key to success here. The new layout also included extensive tree landscaping that brings more water hazards into play, and the 18th hole features a “water cascade” that extends from the landing area to the green, opening up the potential for yet another exciting finish this weekend.

Weather Forecast for Dallas, TX (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (May 15) 79 degrees, 0% chance of rain, mostly sunny.
• Round 2: Friday (May 16) 79 degrees, 0% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (May 17) 83 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 4: Sunday (May 18) 84 degrees, 0% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.

2013 Results

In what was a crazy final day ended with  Sang Moon Bae picking up his first PGA TOUR win, but only after giving up a four-shot lead with half the round to play. The South Korean beat out Keegan Bradley by burying four birdies in a five-hole stretch of the front, but began to crumble with a double bogey at No. 9 and another bogey one hole later. After he dropped a much needed birdie on 16,  Bae’s finally broke the tie and he went on to finish with a 1-under-par 69. Bradley, who led each of the first three rounds after an opening 60, closed with a 72.

Round 4 Recap: 2013 HP Byron Nelson Championship

In the final round of the HP Byron Nelson Championship from TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas, Sang-Moon Bae shot a 1-under 69 to win his first PGA TOUR title. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. (GC), 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. (CBS).

• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday- Sunday, noon -6:00 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

In last week’s Fantasy Predictions segment we told you to stay hot on Furyk, who coincidently could be picked up at a significant discount in most DraftStreet and other salary cap fantasy leagues. Needless to say, we’re glad we picked him. Other picks, including Spieth and Rose, also managed to pull in some significant fantasy cash.

A solid strategy this week would be to select the top two players in our “Picks to Win” segment below and tie in the sleepers to help round out your lineup. As mentioned earlier, this week we’ll be looking specifically for players with a history of success at TPC Four Seasons, and who have the ability to stick pins close and avoid the putting hazards this track is notable for.

So far this year, our fantasy staff has picked six winners in nineteen tournaments, along with 52 Top 10s, 17 Top 3s, and we’re still sitting pretty with an 88% “made-cut” ratio. It’s easy to throw a dart at any of the Top 5 players Las Vegas has to win this week, but we both know that doesn’t work in golf.   Try our picks this week to gain an edge over the competition.  When deciding whether to opt in, take a look at our stats below…we have more Top 3’s picked than players who missed the cut out of 133 picks YTD!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship

• Jordan Spieth(Golficity Odds 10/1): Momentum is the key to Top 10s, and Spieth currently has plenty of it. For this reason we’re going to stay with the hot-handed Spieth as he returns to his Texas home turf after an impressive showing at TPC Sawgrass. Although he was unable to close again last week, we’re considering that to be a non-issue – if you remember people were saying that same thing about Kuchar heading into the RBC a few weeks back and he came out with a win. This kid is only 20 years old and he already has six top 10s in fourteen events this year, and on a home track, he’s even more valuable this week.  We’d suggest making him your top $$ guy if your playing a DraftStreet league this week.
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 14/1): A lot of people out there are picking Keegan to win this event, and far too many are basing that solely on the fact that he carded a 60 in Round 1 last year. We’re going to be a little more reasonable here by selecting a guy who continues to impress us. Although Walker’s T6 was considered a “back-door Top 10 finish” at the PLAYERS last week, his 65 on Sunday put him in a spot to secure 95 more FedExCup points to pad his already comfortable lead. All told, Walker has ten top 25s in his last twelve starts and leads the TOUR in strokes gained-putting. As an added bonus, Walker is about $4,000 cheaper than Spieth in some salary cap leagues this week.
• Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 20/1): Surprised?  Most golf fans shouldn’t be. We agree that there are better golfers in the field than Woodland this week, but its our job to bring you the overlooked guys who can really help boost your fantasy cash. Gary finished T11 at THE PLAYERS which marked his 12th consecutive cut-made – eight of them were top 20s. As far as his history goes, Woodland made the cut here in his last four visits to TPC Four Seasons. He’s got a big price tag this week in salary cap leagues, but if you’re in a pick’em league, definitely consider having him on your roster.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 20/1): Same old story, new week with Kuchar. Besides being a cuts-making machine, Kuchar is a proven winner and lurks around the Top 10 often. Admittedly he feel off last week in the end, but he never really took off at Sawgrass. Regardless, his T17 finish last week marked his first finish outside a top five in five starts. Keep in mind that he’s 6-for-6 at this event with two top 15s.
• Martin Kaymer (Golficity Odds 25/1): You should know by now we’re not big on the back-to-back winner picks, but this one goes back a few tournaments. Kaymer is 9-11 in cuts made this season and began to show signs of life two weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship before falling off with a 75 on day 4. Martin changed a key mental part of his game and now looks to be firing on all cylinders. We wouldn’t bet against him this week, especially since he’ll be riding a high into Dallas.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the HP Byron Nelson Championship

• John Senden (Golficity Odds 50/1): Total crapshoot here, but Senden has been playing some excellent golf. Already with a win this year (Valspar) and total of three Top 10s (T8 Masters) and 13 of 15 cuts made so far this season, he’s quitely been making waves in 2014. We were torn between him and Bradley this week in the top sleeper spot, but we’re sure he cost much less in a salary cap league.
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 60/1): The Texas native has come alive since March with a P2 at the Honda Classic and a T7 in April at the Shell Houston Open. Palmer is a solid choice for a cheaper priced player this week. Note that he lost a playoff at this event three years ago and tied for ninth the following year.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship 2014

• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 14/1): T17 ($135,333)
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 18/1): 2^nd ($1,080,000)
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 20/1):  T38 ($38,000)
• Rory McIlroy(Golficity Odds 22/1): T6 ($313,000)
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 25/1): T4 ($440,000)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship 2014

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 40/1): T4 ($440,000)
• Luke Donald (Golficity Odds 40/1): T38 ($38,000)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $25,899,154 (Average tournament winnings of $1,363,113).
• Winners picked: 6 winners selected out of 19 tournaments (31.57% winners picked in 2014).
• Top 10s: 52 out of 133 players picked (39.09% of players picked finished in Top 10).
• Top 3s: 17 out of 133 players picked (12.78% players picked finished in the Top 3).
• Missed Cuts: Only 16 out of 133 players (87.96% of the picks made the cut in 2014).
• Major Winners Picked: 1 out of 1 (100%)

What are your fantasy picks and predictions for this week’s HP Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Four Seasons Resort? Let us know by leaving your comments below.

(Cover Photo Credit)