Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the Crowne Plaza Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the Crowne Plaza Invitational May 22nd – 25th, 2014

Last Week’s Fantasy Notes

It was a decent cash finish in a few of our DraftStreet leagues with Woodland (T7), Senden (T11), and Kuchar (T7) taking home a nice amount of prize money. Sadly, our seven picks fell short of achieving a third consecutive $2.4 million dollar week, however they did manage to come in just north of $730,000. In all, we added a couple of Top 10s and continued to make cuts, recording yet another 7 for 7 cuts made week. With last week’s Byron Nelson Championship in the books our cut-made percentage is now 88%, which means out of twenty tournaments to date and 140 players picked, only sixteen of them have missed the cut – a key stat showing why we’re averaging over $1.3 million in fantasy earnings per tournament.

This Week’s Tournament Preview

This week the TOUR heads 32 miles southwest to one Fort Worth’s most premier golf clubs, Colonial Country Club for the 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational. All eyes will be on Adam Scott this week as the Aussie superstar is back in action and making his first career start at the World No.1 ranking – a position he’s been chasing for months. Scott is determined to get back on a hot streak as he sets out to become the first to complete the “Texas Grand Slam.” A win here in combination with his wins at the Shell Houston Open in 2007, the Byron Nelson in 2008 (Dallas), and the Valero Texas Open in 2010 will close the door on that feat. With the much talked about new ranking, Scott will certainly have a lot more media attention to contend with this week, but we’re pretty confident he’ll handle it well.

This event marks the first of three tournaments before the world’s elite meet at Pinehurst for the 2014 U.S. Open.

Memorable Moments: Crowne Plaza Invitational

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The Field

Jim Furyk, perhaps one of the hottest players as of late, comes to Colonial after notching consecutive runner-up finishes at the Wells Fargo Championship and THE PLAYERS. Furyk had back-to-back weeks of amazing final rounds, putting him in the position to win both times before ultimately felling short by one stroke in each event. Furyk is no stranger to Colonial as he’s been runner-up here twice including one playoff loss back in 2007.

This week’s field will look similar to the HP Byron Nelson with the addition of a few names. Jordan Spieth will again opt to play this week although the 20 year old is overdue for a much-needed week off – make sure to check out our picks below for more on Spieth’s chances this week. FedExCup leader Jimmy Walker is a major favorite this week, although he’s cooled since the west coast swing. Walker will be just one of fifteen of this season’s twenty one tournament champions partaking in this event.

Ironman Matt Kuchar, who has been making his presence felt all season, has yet to miss a cut in seven visits to Colonial, and finished second here last year and ninth in 2008.

The Course

Colonial Country Club measures in at 7,204 yards and plays as a par 70. The course was designed by Perry Maxwell and John Bredemus and has consistently proven to be one of the toughest tracks on TOUR. Loaded with tight fairways and doglegs, this course has been wreaking havoc on golf games for many years.

The 1941 US Open was played here and to give you a little history lesson, it was the very first time the Open was played south of the Mason-Dixon Line. The PGA TOUR has been back to this site every year since 1946 and it has been a regular stop for this particular event since that date. Along with the U.S. Open, Colonial also played host to the second edition of THE PLAYERS Championship back in 1975, as well as the 1991 U.S. Women’s Open. The event (then called the Bank of America Colonial Tournament) also made history back in 2003 when Annika Sorenstam became first woman to play a PGA TOUR since 1945. Unfortunately, the female golf legend missed missed the cut at +5.   The historic moment also raised a lot of controversy, as many of the tour’s top names withdrew claiming she had no right competing on the PGA TOUR.

Photo via CrownePlazaInvitational.com

Weather Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (May 22) 85 degrees, 20% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 2: Friday (May 23) 86 degrees, 30% chance of rain, partly cloudy.
• Round 3: Saturday (May 24) 86 degrees, 20% chance of rain, isolated T-storms.
• Round 4: Sunday (May 25) 85 degrees, 30% chance of rain, partly cloudy.

2013 Results

Last year southerner Boo Weekley snapped a 5-year winless drought with his victory at Colonial, out-dueling Matt Kuchar with a 4-under-par 66. Weekley finished with a a one-stroke victory, helped along with three consecutive birdies starting at No.8, which propelled him ahead of Kuchar. A 22-foot birdie at No.13 was all Weekley needed to seal the deal.

The win marked Weekley’s third PGA TOUR victory. Meanwhile, Kuchar carded a final round 68, and two-time champion Zach Johnson (66) was just one more stroke back in third.

Round 4 Recap: 2013 Crowne Plaza Invitational

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Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. (GC), 3:00 – 6:00 p.m. (CBS).

• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday- Sunday, noon -6:00 p.m. ET (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra mobile app by Golf Channel.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

In last week’s Fantasy Predictions segment we, as we’re accustomed to doing, thought outside the box and ignored the popular Jason Dufner (T48) and Keegan Bradley (T29) picks that everyone was high on. Instead we opted for Gary Woodland (T7) and John Senden (T11) as we felt they have both been more consistent this season. The TOUR’s unpredictability did however rear it’s ugly head last week as we failed to grab a Top 5, thus finally snapping our two week streak of banking over $2.4 million. The good news is that even with last week’s turbulence, we still managed to pocket over $730,000 in fantasy earnings and we’re excited to come back strong again for Thursday’s Crown Plaza Invitational kickoff.

So far this year, our fantasy staff has picked six winners in twenty tournaments, along with 54 Top 10s, 17 Top 3s, and we’re still loving our 88% “made-cut” ratio – since this is what really brings in the fantasy cash.  We’re going to study the field a little more this week, taking out some of the top players that we feel won’t be in contention based on current play and past performance. Try our picks this week to gain an edge over the competition and use our sleeper picks to help win your DraftStreet or other cash prize leagues.  Don’t forget to take a look at our stats below…we still have more Top 3’s picked than players who missed the cut out of 140 picks YTD!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational

• Jim Furyk  (Golficity Odds 12/1): In his last two starts, Furyk has lit a fuse in both final rounds, coming just short of winning the Wells Fargo Championship and THE PLAYERS Championship. These two strong runner-up showings were a shot in the arm for Jim’s confidence, and on top of that he hasn’t missed a Top 20 finish in his last 6 consecutive starts. With the 2014 Ryder Cup solidly on his mind, Furyk wants, and needs, more Top 10s – and he looks poised to win a tourney any day now. When making your picks, don’t overlook the seven Top 10s he has in his career at Colonial. He’s our horse this week.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 15/1): You’ll most likely continue to see us ride the Kuchar train as we enter the mid-season stretch. Since the Florida swing back in March, Kuch has turned up the heat and now sits at third in FedExCup standings. A win this week could put him in striking distance of Walker on that list, but like Furyk, the Ryder Cup is a big factor fueling these guys’ fire right now. This extra bit motivation certainly helps earn Top 10s for guys like Matt Kuchar. With a TOUR high nine Top 10s this year and a solo second here last year, Kuchar’s chances at Colonial couldn’t be much better. He’s more expensive than Furyk in most salary cap leagues this week, so he may not be the best choice for those contests. Regardless, Kuch is a definite pick on regular roster leagues.
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 22/1): You’ll see a lot chatter about Graham DeLaet or a Paul Casey in this spot, but honestly, we’re not ready gamble on DeLaet’s inconsistency. Palmer is a much more steady choice here as he already has four Top 10s this season and landed a T14 or better in his last two years at Colonial. If Gary Woodland was in the field this week he may have found himself in this spot over Palmer, but with Woodland out we love Ryan’s chances of getting within striking distance and earning some serious cash.
• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 22/1): We  were tempted to finally set Speith asside this week and scoop up Zach Johnson but we’re going to give Jordan one more chance. It’s not the most scientific stat but the Texas native has an amazing record at debut events (Masters, PLAYERS, Colonial in 2013). Most talking heads are saying how he needs a week off to rest since he’s been a workhorse lately, but we’re not buying it. Speith is only 20 years old, he’s hungry, and his name is echoing throughout the PGA TOUR as he begins to take on a path similar to McIlroy in 2012. We can easily see an impressive week coming from Jordan at Colonial this week.
• Adam Scott  (Golficity Odds 25/1): Adam Scott will be playing in his first career start sitting in the World No. 1 spot (Scott was crowned the first place spot today, May 19, 2014). Granted that Scott hasn’t played at Colonial since 2011 but he’s made 33 consecutive cuts, a stat that is entirely to hard to overlook when selecting your fantasy team. Keep an eye on your salary cap though as Scott may be a bit too expensive to be a wise choice in some leagues.

Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Crowne Plaza Invitational

• Charlie Hoffman (Golficity Odds 50/1): Charlie has played in fifteen events this season and only missed one cut. He’s 5-for-5 in cuts made at Colonial and has a couple of Top 20s in his last two tries. Hoffman is a sleeper pick for sure, but he’s decently priced in salary cap leagues this week (he’ll definitely be on ours).
• John Senden (Golficity Odds 50/1): We’re sticking with Senden again this week partly due to his nine consecutive cuts made streak and his excellent showing last week (T11 at the HP Byron Nelson). Senden also knows the course well, owning two top 10s at Colonial. Since his breakout win at the Valspar, he’s been climbing leaderboard.
• Bonus Pick (For Salary Cap Leaguers): In honor of Memorial Day Weekend approaching, we’d like to throw our Premium Members a bonus pick as a sleeper alternative.  Chris Kirk is a solid mid-salary ranked player this week. Although he’s priced higher than normal this week, we still think his fantasy salary value is ideal for your team. Kirk and Hoffman together would free up some spending and allow you to grab a few more names above. Kirk, is no slouch either. He’s 4-for-4 at Colonial and comes into this event with 18 consecutive cuts made. If you can’t quite pull the trigger on the Senden pick, this would be a good replacement, but we’re sticking with Senden.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship

• Jordan Spieth(Golficity Odds 10/1):  T37 ($30,403)
• Jimmy Walker (Golficity Odds 14/1):  T37 ($30,403)
• Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 20/1):  T7 ($207,862)
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 20/1): T7 ($207,862)
• Martin Kaymer (Golficity Odds 25/1): T29 ($43,944)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship

• John Senden (Golficity Odds 50/1): T11 ($146,280)
• Ryan Palmer (Golficity Odds 60/1): T22 ($64,055)

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $26,629,963 (Average tournament winnings of $1,331,498).
• Winners picked: 6 winners selected out of 20 tournaments (30% winners picked in 2014).
• Top 10s: 54 out of 140 players picked (38.57% of players picked finished in Top 10).
• Top 3s: 17 out of 140 players picked (12.14% players picked finished in the Top 3).
• Missed Cuts: Only 16 out of 140 players (88.57% of the picks made the cut in 2014).
• Major Winners Picked: 1 out of 1 (100%)

What are your fantasy picks and predictions for this week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Country Club? Let us know by leaving your comments below.

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