Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – The US Open

2019 US Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

For a few years now, it is generally accepted that the US Open has been in the doldrums.

The USGA have not got their course set-up right at a series of venues that, to spare the blushes of those involved, haven’t quite hit the mark as far as a host of this iconic tournament goes.

Happily, that trend comes to an end this week.

The Pebble Beach Links is a historic layout that offers both eye-catching beauty and head-scratching complexity, and as golf courses go they don’t come much better than this.

Phil Mickelson hits his tee shot on the fourth hole during the second…

Phil Mickelson hits his tee shot on the fourth hole during the second round of The Memorial Tournament Presented by Nationwide at Muirfield Village Golf Club on May 31, 2019 in Dublin, Ohio. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

And then you factor in the weather conditions too. There will be a meaty old breeze blowing in from Carmel Bay, which lines nine of the holes, and that will only add to the difficulty on offer to the players.

No-one is saying that a US Open course should be unplayable, but it should do this fine event the justice it deserves by making life uncomfortable for the players. Pebble Beach should do exactly that.

It will play as a Par 71 this week, as opposed to the normal Par 72 used in the traditional pro-am event in the springtime, with a 505-yard Par 5 transformed into a long old Par 4 for this week only.

Everything else remains the same, although the rough is up – it is usually trimmed back for the AT&T – and the greens will run a lot quicker and firmer in this later timeslot. They’re tiny as it is!

Pebble Beach might be one of the most picturesque venues on Tour, but the players aren’t out on the West Coast for a jolly: we’re expecting the winning score to be around even par, so this is a grind rather than a birdieathon – exactly how the US Open should be.

And what a fantastic bunch of storylines we can look forward to. Will Brooks Koepka manage to achieve an incredible three-peat in this tournament? Can Rory McIlroy cash in on his staggering performance at the Canadian Open last week? Can Tiger add another major to his collection? Can Dustin Johnson or Phil Mickelson capitalize on their fine records at Pebble Beach?

It’s dizzying just thinking about it, and we can’t wait for the action to get underway.

Another point worth noting: any time a tournament becomes tough, the usual bomb-and-gouge merchants fall by the wayside. There could be an unusual leaderboard come Sunday, and that lends itself nicely to a sleeper winner.

So, without further ado, here’s our sleeper picks for the US Open 2019.

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US Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

Phil Mickelson – 50/1 – In his last seven trips to Pebble Beach, Phil has won twice and finished runner-up on two other occasions.

Yes, the AT&T Pro Am features the course set up rather differently, but the general concept required to succeed here remain the same and Lefty has them in abundance.

He will miss fairways, we know that, but we suspect that many others will too, and it’s the second half of holes where his short game skills will come to the fore.

His form is not great by any means, but this isn’t a week where that will be cruelly exposed by young guns making birdie left, right and centre. The US Open winner needs to have plenty of craft and the smarts to know when to take risks and when to buckle up, make par and move on.

The experience of Phil will be a huge advantage this week, and as somebody who has gone to the well at the Pebble Beach Links in the past there is no reason to fear his shaky recent form.

Paul Casey – 55/1 – We’ve been her before, of course: backing Casey, one of the most talented players never to win a major, to finally get the job done.

The Englishman is a proven Links player that has banked a pair of top-10s in each of his last two starts at Pebble Beach, including a runners-up spot earlier this season.

The wind won’t be any trouble to him, and his precise tee-to-green game should yield some dividends in approaching these tiny Poa Annua greens.

Shane Lowry – 80/1 – Although he’s enjoyed plenty of success in his career, the 2016 US Open is perhaps where Shane Lowry is most remembered from.

He owned a four-shot lead heading into the final round at Oakmont, and really he should have completed the job despite pressure from Dustin Johnson and co.

The Irishman has a pair of toop-10s in the US Open, was T8 in the PGA Championship a few weeks ago and is somebody who clearly enjoys the spotlight of the big occasion.

A winner in the desert and on the Links in Ireland, Lowry is comfortable with a breeze knocking his ball around, and his excellent short game really could come to the fore at Pebble Beach.

He doesn’t have a huge amount of strong history at Pebble Beach, but the major set-up will suit him far more than the knockabout pro-am.

Kevin Na – 125/1 – With two PGA TOUR wins in the past year, Kevin Na is – rather belatedly – starting to cash in on his undoubted talent.

Maybe he’s ready to mount an assault on a major then; he’s only ever knocked on the door before, as opposed to looking likely.

Na has banked a pair of top-fives at Pebble Beach and it feels like a course that suits his game: he’s one of the better players around at approaching small greens with confidence.

A proven performer in the wind and in coastal Links tests, Na finally has the psychological toughness of a winner to go with his unquestionable skill on the course.

C.T. Pan – 200/1 – A player that has knocked on the door for a while, C.T. Pan finally popped his PGA TOUR cherry at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago.

Harbour Town isn’t all that dissimilar to Pebble Beach, and so we make a note of that, and in his last start he was T3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Inside the world’s top 50 players now, the time is right for the Chinese Taipei star to make his mark on a major. Pebble Beach could be an ideal venue, given that he’s comfortable playing in an ocean breeze and – ranking inside the Tour’s top-50 for Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance – is not afraid to battle out a score.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the US Open here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2018-2019)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”6.75%” bar_text=”10 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”16.89%” bar_text=”25 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”35.13%” bar_text=”52 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”6.67%” bar_text=”2 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”20.00%” bar_text=”6 out of 30 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”64.19%” bar_text=”95 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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