Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The 2014 BMW Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks and Predictions for the 2014 BMW Championship

This Week’s Tournament Preview

As we wind down to the second to last event of the 2013-2014 wrap-around season, the remaining 70 players will compete for a chance to make a final push for the Top 5 spots heading into East Lake. Remember, the FedExCup points will reset before next week’s event but the top five are guaranteed the FedExCup title if they win in Atlanta (more on how the FedExCup Playoffs work here).

The remaining Ryder Cup players will be selected before Round 1 commences on Thursday morning, so the only thing left to play for this week is a chance to get to the TOUR Championship. We’ll filter through the remaining 70 players to pick our best 5 to win along with 2 sleeper picks to help you make that final push in your annual fantasy leagues.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week’s fantasy squad combined for two T7 or better finishes and a grand total of $810,896 in fantasy earnings. With week 35 in the books, our total fantasy earnings this season now total $41.97 million with an an average of just one missed cut per week (sleepers included).

For last week’s Deutche Bank a number of our premium members asked why we didn’t choose Stenson or Fowler at TPC Boston – where we opted Furyk and Day in their place. Looking back, Furyk and Fowler both finished T23 and earned the same fantasy money, but in DraftKings fantasy leagues, Furyk earned 1.50 more points than Fowler. Although not much, when playing in a league with thousands of entrants, it could mean the difference of a lot of winnings!

Day finished T7 and earned $258,000 while Stenson finished T26 and earned $61,600. A whopping 16 points separated the two in salary cap league final points.

The Field

Last week’s winner Chris Kirk, heads heads up a field containing the remaining 70 players as the tour moves to Cherry Hills Country Club in Colorado. McIlroy, Mahan, Walker, and Kuchar sit closely behind last week’s winner in second through fifth place respectively.

Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose both took a week off after the Barclays to rest up for the BMW and McDowell sat the week out to return home to Florida for the birth of his first child.

The remaining 70 golfers will now fight make the exclusive 30 player cut line and earn an invite to East Lake next week for a crack at the $10 million dollar prize and the coveted FedExCup trophy.

Any one of the 70 can push into the top spots before next week with a win and 2500 FedExCup points, but who has the best chance to win on this tough course? More on that in a minute…

The Course

Cherry Hills Country Club measures in at a whopping 7,466 yards and plays as a challenging par 7o. The course opened in 1922 right outside of Denver and has hosted an array of large events since that date.

Some of us may recall that the historical 1960 U.S. Open was played at Cherry Hills where Arnold Palmer drove the Par 4 green on the first hole to come back and erase a seven shot deficit to win.

Other events held here over the years include the 1941 and 1985 PGA Championships and the 1993 U.S. Senior Open where Jack Nicklaus emerged victorious.

Photo by CHCC.com.

Weather Forecast for Cherry Hills Village, CO (from weather.com)

• Round 1: Thursday (Sept 4) 76 degrees, 20 chance of rain, mostly sunny.
• Round 2: Saturday (Sept 5) 76 degrees, 40% chance of rain, PM T-storms.
• Round 3: Sunday (Sept 6) 76 degrees, 40% chance of rain, PM showers.
• Round 4: Monday (Sept 7) 79 degrees, 20% chance of rain, mostly sunny.

2013 Results

It was Zach Johnson’s day in the sun last year at Conway Farms when he overcame a three-shot deficit, ultimately posting a crucial 4th round 65.

Johnson beat out Nick Watney with two birdies in his final three holes during an exciting Monday finish. It was Johnson’s 18-foot birdie at 16 that moved him ahead of Jim Furyk who, earlier in the tournament notched the first 59 in FedExCup Playoffs history and sixth in PGA TOUR history.

Furyk had a one-shot lead into Sunday, but fell sharply after carding a 71 the next day.

For more, here is wrap-up of Round 4 from last year’s edition of The BMW Championship:

No Title

Rains on Sunday force a Monday finish where Zach Johnson claims his 10th career PGA TOUR victory with birdies on 16 and 17. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR. Here you can find everything you need to stay up to date with the world’s foremost golf tour..

Media

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday – Friday 4:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m. EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday 1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. EST (Golf Channel), 3:00 – 6:00 pm (NBC)
  • Sunday 12:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. EST (Golf Channel), 2:00 – 6:00 pm (NBC)
• Radio Broadcasts
  • Thursday – Friday, 2:00 pm – 8:00 p.m. EST (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Saturday-Sunday, 12:00 pm – 6:00 p.m. EST (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on the Golf Live Extra app for iPhone and iPad.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The boys on TOUR will see a different style of course this week in Colorado. The Par 70 track has only two Par 5s which are both on the back nine, one of which will stretch to as long as 630 yards. Both Par 5s should see very limited eagle chances this week and the testy Par 5 17th island green could shake up the leaderboard as it will inevitably taunt some of the field to try and fly it there in two.

As for the greens, the 11.5 speed on the Stimpmeter should test even the PGA TOUR’s most skilled putters. Taking these stats into play when making selections this week, be sure to look out for putting warriors and long ball hitters, but scrambling will be he key to success again this week. We’ll break all of this down further in our fantasy picks segment below.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win The 2014 BMW Championship

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2014 BMW Championship

• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 6/1): Day is coming in as one of the hottest players in the field this FedExCup playoffs. With a T2 and a T7 in his first two playoff events, Day’s game looks ideal for this type of course. He led the field in putting inside ten feet last week and is an animal when it comes to scrambling. We feel he’s due for a win and this could be his week.
• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 8/1): Although he’s gone a few weeks without a win McIlroy is still on fire coming off a T5 at TPC Boston. The World #1 currently leads the TOUR in strokes gained tee-to-green and has the long stick to crush this lengthy track. Simply put, Rory is playing some of the best golf of his life right now so it’s hard to overlook him this week.
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 14/1): Cherry Hills is a course that Kuch can tear up. Although he struggled in Boston last week, Kuchar still ended up stringing together a T29 and remains in the Top 5 in FedExCup points. Kuch is on his way towards finishing up an amazing season with eleven Top 10s and a Ryder Cup spot and a legitimate chance to win the $10 million in Atlanta next week.
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 18/1): It came down to Fowler or Scott in this spot and we’re going to steer clear from Scott for now. After losing his World No. 1 spot to McIlroy, Scott has begun a downward trend whereas Rickie has been significantly trending upwards (despite his T23 last week vs Adam’s T16).  This course plays to Fowler’s strengths and his putting stroke could be the difference for him this week. With so many close finishes it’s only a matter of time before Fowler comes out on top and a win here could put him squarely in the FedExCup hunt.
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 22/1): Rose took a week off to rest and in the process fell to 27th in playoff points. Hovering so close to the cut line for East Lake shouldn’t worry Rose too much as he has what it takes to jump into the top 5 heading to Atlanta with a strong finish this week. He currently ranks 4th in strokes gained tee-to-green which is a crucial stat on this course. For what it’s worth we like him over Sergio at Cherry Hills.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The 2014 BMW Championship

• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 33/1): We stayed away from Stenson last week but we’re going to hop back on the Swedish train this week going into Colorado. He leads the TOUR in total driving and closed out TPC Boston with a strong 65, but fell short of defending his crown after carding a 73 in round 3.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win The 2014 BMW Championship

• Zach Johnson (Golficity Odds 38/1): Zach is a decent price in most salary cap leagues this week (approx. $7,700). The defending champ has found a great putting form as of late which could give him the edge at Cherry Hills this week. He plays very well at the site of past victories and is coming into Cherry Hills with back to back playoff Top 25s.

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Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Deutsche Bank Championship

• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 3 /1): T29 ($59,867)
• Rory McIlroy (Golficity Odds 8/1): T5 ($304,000)
• Jim Furyk (Golficity Odds 10/1): T23 ($76,800)
• Adam Scott (Golficity Odds 15/1): T16 ($112,229)
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 33/1): T7 ($258,000)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the 2014 Deutsche Bank Championship

• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 33/1): MDF

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the 2014 Deutsche Bank Championship

• Kevin Na (Golficity Odds 33/1): MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions Stats: Season to Date

• Total Fantasy Dollars: $41,971,579 (Weekly average = $1,199,187)
• Total Top 10s: 83 out of 245 players picked (33.88%).
• Total Top 3s: 25 out of 224 players picked (10.20%).
• Total Missed Cuts: Only 35 out of 245 players picked (85.71% made the cut).
• Total Major Winners Picked: 2 out of 4 (50%)
• Total WGC Event Winners Picked: 2 out of 3 (66.67%)

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2014 BMW Championship with other Premium Members.

(Cover Photo Credit)