Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, & Predictions – THE PLAYERS Championship 2015

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship Preview

The top ranked players in the world clashed at the WGC-Cadillac Match Play event last week and it’s only fitting that the top ranked player came away with the prize.

From a fantasy standpoint, we’ve had our doubts about utilizing Rory on our rosters until he’s once again proven himself on U.S. soil—which he effectively did last weekend.  However, just because he won a bracket-style match play event doesn’t mean you should immediately place him on your roster this weekend.

We’re sure that Rory will have the most expensive price tag in a DraftKings salary cap league this week, so if you opt for him, make you sure you have some quality sleepers on deck to round out the roster.

McIlroy finished late on a Sunday on the West Coast and is celebrating his birthday today (Monday).  Tie that into a coast to coast flight and some media hustle in-between to discuss his victory and you have a recipe for someone not fully prepared to tackle TPC Sawgrass—check our picks below to see if we opted for the World No. 1 this week or if we chose to bench him.

Jordan Spieth is another player that has undeniable momentum despite an early exit from match play last weekend.  Spieth took the lead into the final round of the 2014 PLAYERS but fell short in the end, similar to what happened in 2014 at Augusta, and we all know what happened a year later.

You can bet on it that Rory and Spieth will be in the top 3 as far as most expensive in salary cap this week (if not 1 and 2).  On another note, Spieth looks to join Tiger Woods as the only player to win both the Masters and THE PLAYERS in the same year (Tiger in 2001).  So the question this week for salary cap players is, “Do you pick Rory or Jordan? …or is there a way to score both?”

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

We chose to sit out last week’s fantasy segment due to the lack of fantasy leagues participating in the WGC-Cadillac match play event.  It is worth noting however that we had an excellent showing for the Zurich Challenge in New Orleans the week prior.

For that tourney we decided to go with Justin Rose as our 2nd pick to win event and he did just that!  With the victory, we notched another $1.3 million in weekly fantasy earnings bringing our season average up to an impressive $1,033,380 per week!

The Zurich Classic marked our 6th winner picked in just 22 events this wraparound season which gives us a 27.27% “winners picked percentage” with another 8 runner-ups picked which is good for 36.36% on the season.

The Field

Another all-star field will grace our TV screens this Mother’s Day weekend and all eyes will be on Tiger, Rory, and Jordan.

Is this the week Tiger breaks out?

Will Jordan do what Tiger did in 2001?

And lastly, will World No. 1 Rory McIlroy stay hot and begin a new dominant win streak like he did in 2014 with two major wins?

Overall the field will consist of all of the top 50 in the current Official World Golf Ranking and 56 of the top 60.  Tiger will be playing in his first event since his comeback Masters appearance where he finished T17 during his first start since a two-month personal leave.

THE PLAYERS Championship is about as close to a 5th major as you can get so look for a packed field with plenty of guys bringing their A-game to the legendary TPC Sawgrass.

The Course

TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) measures in at 7,215 yards and plays as a par 72.  The course originated from over 400 acres of wooded wetlands which was later crafted by course architect Pete Dye to become one of the most notorious bucket list courses in America.

Here is a fun fact about TPC Sawgrass: no two consecutive holes play in the same direction.

Players will have to strategize with regards to wind direction.  Additionally, the doglegs were created in both directions and no hole gets more attention than its shortest one, the infamous 137-yard par 3 17th over water to a small island-style green that has decided the fate of so many at this event.

Here are some of our favorite moments on the 17th hole at Sawgrass and some interesting facts from Pete Dye himself.  Our favorites include Tiger’s “better than most” putt and the hard-way par by Freddie Couples.  Enjoy…

Memorable Moments: The 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass

Through the years the 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass has showcased some great shots and memorable moments. Check out a birdie of a different kind, Paul Azinger, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Fred Couples, Sean O’Hair and Tiger Woods make history at the infamous par-3. For complete coverage of the 2009 PLAYER Championship, visit PGATOUR.COM.

Weather Forecast for Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Overall the forecast for the week looks to be dry with temperatures in the low 80’s—despite a few potential afternoon showers on Friday and Saturday.

There is always the threat of precipitation in Florida, but this week’s big stage event looks to be on the drier side.  Expect great course conditions for TPC Sawgrass this week and always expect a few “water balls” on the 17th hole!

THE PLAYERS Championship 2014 Results

In 2014 Martin Kaymer ended a 28-month winless stretch when he beat out Jim Furyk by just one stroke as the sunset at TPC Sawgrass.

Kaymer led by three when the weather forced a 1-1/2 hour delay with only four holes to play.  The delay did not soften the German pro as he was able to regain his momentum which proved to be just enough to keep him out of a playoff with Furyk.

It was Kaymer’s first win anywhere since the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa at the end of 2012 and he went on to win the US Open at Pinehurst a month later.

Here’s a recap of what happened last year in case you missed it:

Martin Kaymer wins in dramatic fashion at THE PLAYERS | Highlights

In the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship 2014, Martin Kaymer survives a late double bogey after a weather delay thanks to a clutch 28-foot par putt on the 17th hole to capture his second PGA TOUR win. . SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts 
  • Thursday – Friday 1:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday 12:00 pm – 2:00 pm EST (Golf Channel)
  • Saturday – Sunday  Sunday 2:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST (NBC)
• Radio Broadcasts (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.COM)
  • Thursday – Friday 12:00 pm – 7:00 pm EST
  • Saturday – Sunday  1:00pm – 7:00 pm EST
• Mobile Broadcasts
  • Simultaneous coverage on The Golf Live Extra App for iPhone and Android.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf this Week

With another highly publicized PGA TOUR event coming up this week it should come as no surprise that there are plenty of fantasy golf leagues to choose from.  Here are just a few of our favorites this time around:

• DraftKings PGA $150K Medium Pressure Putt (Entry $20): For those of you eyeing a nice $20,000 first price for just a $20 entry fee, this event is a perfect place to put our picks to the challenge.
• DraftKings PGA $100K Mini Pressure Putt (Entry $3): For just $3, why not take a few cracks at winning the $10,000 first prize in this event? We like the idea of entering an event like this 3-5 times with different horses and sleepers with more entries to win.
• FantasyFeud $2k Guaranteed (Entry $22): $22 is a bit steep for an entry fee but what we like most about this event is that the prizes are guaranteed regardless of how many enter and these player pools tend to stay low.
• VICTIV $2500 The Players Local (Entry $2): VICTIV PGA leagues have been growing in popularity lately but are still small enough for you come away with a win without having to fight off a huge player pool.  Try this $2 league for a nice shot at winning a couple hundred bucks.

Reminder: DraftKings has officially opened the doors for their next Major event.  Given all the success of last major’s $2.2 million Masters contest, DraftKings is upping the ante for the U.S. Open with an even bigger prize pool set at $2.5 million dollars.  Grab an entry here and hop in an early satellite league to win your way in to the big event before it’s too late!

This Week’s THE PLAYERS Fantasy Notes

We love keeping our strategy simple for premier tournaments such as the majors, PLAYERS, and the WGC events.  This particular method performs best with event fields that contain almost all of the top ranked players in the world because you simply cannot just pick the best in the field—you won’t have enough cash.  Even in straight pick’em leagues, you’ll never win by picking the top 5-7 players in the field because it’s very unlikely that they will ALL finish in the Top 10.

Ok, so what’s the strategy?  We’re not giving up the secret sauce that easily!

But don’t worry, we’ll take care of the heavy lifting for you as we explore THE PLAYERS from every angle including course stats, GIRs, Strokes Gained, and about a dozen other statistics regarding both history of the course/event and current state of play on the PGA TOUR for this outstanding field.

One last note: the Par 4’s at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course are among the hardest on the schedule year after year, so we’ll be putting a lot of focus on that stat as well.

We hope you strike it rich this week!

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[alert heading=”15% Off New Memberships” type=”success”]THIS WEEK ONLY use coupon code “THEPLAYERS” at checkout to receive 15% off your new Golficity Premium Membership![/alert]

With our picks, this could be you!

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

• Jordan Spieth (Golficity Odds 6/1 FPPG 93.8 Salary: $12,800): Yup, we’re running with Jordan over Rory for the top spot this week.  Granted, Rory is coming off of a nice win out on the west coast but there is something about the Spieth/Sawgrass combination we like a lot better.  First, Jordan is priced a bit lower which allows you to add some more ammo to your line-up.  Second, he ranks 1st in scoring average, 2nd in total strokes-gained and 2nd in Par-4 scoring average (remember how important we said that would be this week).  Despite being knocked out at Match Play last week, he’s still a force to be reckoned with on the big stage.  Lastly, Jordan finished T4 here last year with a 67-66 in his first two days (-10 under total).  There is no contending that he is still by far the hottest player on TOUR.
• Henrik Stenson (Golficity Odds 12/1 FPPG 94.2 Salary: $10,400): We we’re a little surprised seeing Stenson’s value in this range as we thought he’d be up in the $11,000’s for sure.  The fact that he’s undervalued in salary cap leagues only makes us love this pick more.  Stenson has Top 20 finishes (including three top fives) in his last four stroke-play starts.  He also leads every player on TOUR in strokes-gained tee-to-green, putting, and total.  Plus, Stenson sits at 3rd in GIR and 7th in Driving Accuracy.  If those stats aren’t enough, he ranks 2nd in scoring average and 1st in ball-striking.  So yes, Stenson pretty much owns single digit rankings in over 25 different stat categories.  Oh, and did we mention that he’s also a past winner at this event in 2009 and he finished T5 here in 2013!
• Jason Day (Golficity Odds 14/1 FPPG 97.6 Salary: $9,900): Day is a fantasy machine.  In our preview we mentioned the importance of Par-4 scoring at Sawgrass, well guess what…Day ranks 1st in that category as well as the All-Around Ranking.  Day also holds the crown at DraftKings for Fantasy Points Per Game with the most at 97.6.  Regarding Sawgrass, Day is just 2-for-4 (made cuts) but both of those finishes were top 20s.  So far this year he has four top four finishes in 2015, including a T4 in New Orleans two weeks ago.  Along with that, he currently leads the TOUR in the all-around ranking.  Note here that we opted for Day over Furyk, despite Furyk’s hot play recently.
• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 6/1 FPPG 92.4 Salary: $9,200): We’re shocked more sites aren’t touting this guy this week.  Bubba has been a little quiet lately but that’s no reason to overlook what he can do on this course.  When it comes to winning on a course like TPC Sawgrass, you MUST tackle the par-5s and make them count.  Pars here feel like bogeys since the Par 4s are so difficult to score on.  That said, Bubba ranks 1st on TOUR in Par 5 scoring and 3rd in total strokes gained.  He can scramble better than anyone on TOUR and with his powerful drives he has the ability to shorten a lot of holes and score big.  Most will overlook him this week so sneak in and add him to your roster.
• Hideki Matsuyama (Golficity Odds 22/1 FPPG 80.5 Salary: $8,800): Allow us to explain ourselves here.  Sure you can take the easy way out for the same price tag and stick Jimmy Walker on your roster and sleep a little bit easier at night. But we know darn well that taking the easy way out is not always the right way in fantasy golf.  Disregard Rory’s romping over him during match play last week and you’ll see that he simply couldn’t be stopped by anyone else.  Matsuyama co-leads the TOUR with 7 Top 10s and even more importantly, his game matches up well here.  He ranks 3rd in Par-4 scoring average, leads the TOUR in scrambling from the fringe (important this week), and is an eagle making machine.  Again, the idea is to think outside the box to win big money in fantasy.  If you want to be like everyone else, go with Walker.

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

• Patrick Reed (Golficity Odds 35/1 FPPG 80.7 Salary: $7,600): Reed has been very quiet as of late but has a tendency to light up in these situations.  For a lot of reasons he’s arguably the best player to run with in the $7,500-$7,900 range this week.  His sand game is one of the best on TOUR and that is also crucial to a player’s success at the Stadium Course.  Ranking 11th in total strokes-gained Reed is a solid sleeper here for sure.

Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win THE PLAYERS Championship

• JB Holmes (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG 72.7 Salary: $7,500): Holmes is One of best on TOUR this year, evidenced by the fact that he currently ranks 3rd in the FedExCup standings.  He has four top 20s in eight appearances at Sawgrass, but hasn’t made much noise here since 2011 (T6).  Key stats to consider are that Holmes ranks 10th in strokes gained tee-to-green and 4th in birdie average.

[/membership]

Last Week’s Results:  Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic

• Dustin Johnson (Golficity Odds 8/1): T43 ($22,770)
• Justin Rose (Golficity Odds 14/1): WINNER ($1,242,000)
• Rickie Fowler (Golficity Odds 20/1): MC
• Morgan Hoffman (Golficity Odds 32/1): T36 ($31,099)
• John Peterson (Golficity Odds 40/1): T48 ($16,991)

Last Week’s Results: Sleeper Picks/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic

• Jason Bohn (Golficity Odds 50/1): MC

Last Week’s Results Salary Cap Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic

• Martin Laird (Golficity Odds 66/1): MC

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD Stats

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”13.64%” bar_text=”21 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”27.27%” bar_text=”42 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”27.27%” bar_text=”6 out of 22 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”36.36%” bar_text=”8 out of 22 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”83.12%” bar_text=”128 out of 154 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Major Winners Picked” percent=”100%” bar_text=”1 out of 1 event” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit the The Clubhouse and our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for THE PLAYERS Championship with other Premium Members.

Want even more fantasy golf predictions for THE PLAYERS Championship?  If so, be sure to check out this week’s Tuesday Sleeper Report for five more selections coming off 50/1 or greater odds.

Cover Photo by Craig ONeal on Flickr