Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 PLAYERS Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 PLAYERS Championship
The 2021 PLAYERS Championship Fantasy Preview
Bryson, bloody Bryson.
The thing with DeChambeau is that there is always a story within the story, and so when he plays really good golf and does something fantastic – i.e. winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational – it tends to get overshadowed.
So when he’s attempting – and failing, it should be said – to drive Par 5s, it somehow erodes his otherwise excellent achievement, and while it builds Bryson’s brand as a meat-headed powerhouse you do wonder what it does to his golfing legacy….that’s eight PGA TOUR wins by the age of 28, by the way.
Maybe it will get people talking about golf again….and that can only be considered a good thing.
And it’s not as if the game has gone to rack and ruin. While Bryson was pumping his guns, Lee Westwood was plodding his way around Bay Hill and producing an almost equally-strong performance, falling one shot shy of ending a PGA TOUR trophy drought that dates back to 2010.
You see, the best golf courses are such that all manner of characters can win on them….which brings us nicely on to TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship this week with some nice action being offered by FanDuel this week for the season’s “5th Major.”
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Unfortunately there was no Bryson on our squad last week and our two top picks, McIlroy and Fitzpatrick both ended up T10.
Our mid-tier pick Lanto Griffin offered up some solid DFS points, but fell short on Sunday.
The 2021 PLAYERS Championship Field
The fifth major, if you want to call it that, is a highly sought-after piece of silverware, and that’s perhaps why 48 of the world’s top 50 players will be teeing it up at Sawgrass.
Rory McIlroy is the defending champion, technically, given that the 2020 edition was cancelled after one round as the enormity of the COVID pandemic began to hit home.
He will be joined by a preening Bryson, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and the 2018 victor Webb Simpson, and that is a mere snapshot of the class on show this week.
A spate of recent PGA TOUR winners – Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed, Daniel Berger and Max Homa – are also staying on in Florida, and perhaps the only absentees of any note are Brooks Koepka, who is nursing a knee injury, and Tiger Woods, who misses out for obvious reasons.
This Week’s Course Preview
Some golf courses are so iconic that they somehow take on a life that is greater than the tournament that they host.
Pete Dye could have a few entries into that canon, truth be told, but TPC Sawgrass remains his masterwork and is a much looked forward to date on the schedule.
It’s a firm but fair test of golf, and for all its complexities the fact that the winning score here is routinely in the teens under par shows that it is neither too easy to dissect nor an impossibility to master.
At just 7,189 yards for its Par 72, the suggestion is that Sawgrass could be overpowered – it will certainly be interesting to see how Bryson 2.0 tackles the layout, and in 2019 McIlroy won this event despite finding just 58.9% of fairways….the sorts of stats that have purists wringing their hands in horror.
But that’s not the only way to skin this cat, and with Jim Furyk finishing second in that 2019 renewal and Webb Simpson winning the year prior clearly length is not the be all and end all at Sawgrass.
What does count is having a canny short game though. These postage stamp greens (Bermuda but overseeded with Poa Annua) are typically Dye-ish in their small size, so GIR will be missed, and worst still there’s devilish waste areas where short siding yourself becomes an occupational hazard.
With dozens of bunkers on the real estate and lots of water to avoid, TPC Sawgrass lives up to its reputation as an extremely fair test of all-round golf. There’s more to this beast than just the famous seventeenth island green….
Weather Forecast for Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
It’s pretty much business as usual in Florida this week.
There will be plenty of sunshine, with warm enough temperatures ranging from 69-75˚, and that will be enough to soothe the cockles of all involved.
The chance of rainfall is minimal, according to the early forecast at least, and it’s the wind that is the other factor that the players have to consider – a breeze of up to 12 mph is considerable enough to change shot selection at times.
Last Year’s Results for THE PLAYERS Championship
Even though there was only one round of THE PLAYERS Championship last year, there was still something to report as Hideki Matsuyama tied the course record of 63 as he flew into an early lead.
In 2019, it was McIlroy who pipped Furyk – a duo that shows the versatility of a golf course – to the post down the closing straight on a Sunday in which Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood both fluffed their lines.
Despite a double bogey on the front nine, Rory rallied – playing the last ten holes in -4 – to assert his dominance over Furyk, who might just have fancied booking his spot in a play-off when holing out for a birdie on the 72nd hole.
Alas, it was not to be, and McIlroy added another PGA TOUR title to his collection.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for THE PLAYERS Championship this Week
Given its unofficial status as the fifth major, you won’t be shocked to learn that there’s a first-class slate to savor this week!
In particular, make sure to have a look at the $300K Thu PGA Eagle ($100K to 1st).
For only $7.77 you can join a smaller field with a better chance to cash in on the 1st prize $100,000. Cash Prizes will be paid out to the top 10,575th place! Will this contest even get a player field that high?
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 PLAYERS Championship
Now then, how to shortlist picks for THE PLAYERS Championship….
We’ve had powerhouses (McIlroy), plotters (Simpson), iron wizards (Si-Woo Kim), gritty grinders (Jason Day) and little Rickies (Fowler) all win this event in recent times, and there’s not a huge amount of correlation to join the dots.
And here’s a fun fact – in 2019, four of the top six on the final leaderboard were priced at $7,100 or less on DraftKings, and the optimum line-up was McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Jim Furyk, Eddie Pepperell, Brandt Snedeker and Jhonattan Vegas.
Respect if you drafted that magic six….
Of course, we’re not completely down a blind alley. This Pete Dye golf, and so we’re looking for guys who can shape the ball both ways off the tee. It seems as though missing fairways isn’t the end of the world, and actually approaching these tiny greens with a nice high ball flight will achieve the best result on the firm greens – from the short grass or the rough.
There will be missed greens, that’s inevitable given their size and the wind, and so a combination of precision iron play and a reliable chipping action is sought after.
While the greens are Bermuda, note that these have been overseeded with Poa – generally, that creates a ‘neutral’ kind of surface where typically strong Bermuda specialists don’t have as much of an edge. If you like betting on pure putters, there’s no discernible edge to be had here.
If you look hard enough you will find Pete Dye ‘specialists’ out there, and it’s perhaps no coincidence those come to the party often at his signature layouts even when they have been short of form recently.
Conversely, some top-quality players have pretty ordinary records at this track, so that’s also a factor to consider!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 PLAYERS Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 PLAYERS Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 86.0, GPFP: 110.94 Salary: $9,900)
Stop what you’re doing, because one of the best prices you will see on DK is now available.
There is absolutely no way that Justin Thomas, a player perfectly built for Pete Dye golf, should be less than $10,000. It’s an absolute steal.
A formline of 35-11-MC-3 perhaps doesn’t describe JT’s suitability for Sawgrass that well, but we can assure that you that he has all of the tools of the trade to become a multiple-time winner here.
Maybe it’s a lack of recent form that has persuaded the number-crunchers to serve up such a bargain, but it’s not as if he is stinking the place out – solo third at the Tournament of Champions was followed by three round excellence at the Phoenix Open – a Sunday 72 halting his progress.
But $9,900 for one of the most prolific winners on the PGA TOUR at a layout that suits him down to a tee? Thanks very much.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 1st
- SG: Approach – 6th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 23rd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Patrick Reed (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 77.7, GPFP: 62.14 Salary: $9,000)
If you wanted to go with Collin Morikawa for this pick then we wouldn’t fault you – the ball-striking magician has improved his short game markedly last time out, and he has previous of following one win closely with another.
But we’re going to opt for Patrick Reed, whose above-average approach play and stellar short game should stand him in great stead this week.
Oddly, he’s never really blown Sawgrass away, and so the lower-than-expected price is justified, but you still think it’s the kind of layout where ultimately he will thrive at some point.
A missed cut at Bay Hill will have set tongues wagging, but that came on the number and he didn’t play all that badly, and medium-term remember this is a guy who won a high-class Farmers Insurance Open renewal just three starts ago.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 2nd
- SG: Putting – 2nd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 60th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Matt Fitzpatrick (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 64.2, GPFP: 51.36 Salary: $8,200)
It’s a second dance around the fountain for us with Matt Fitzpatrick, who we expected to go very nicely at Bay Hill last week.
And he did, kind of, finishing inside the top-10 without really contending.
He is cheaper this week to draft than he was last despite now compiling three consecutive finishes of T11 or better, and at another venue that should suit the Englishman is on board once more.
Excellent in all departments of the game, Fitzpatrick’s own improvement should mesh nicely with a better showing at TPC Sawgrass than he ahs delivered in the past.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 29th
- SG: Putting – 37th
- Birdie Average – 41st
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Francesco Molinari (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 56.4 GPFP: 47.36 Salary: $7,600)
It’s one of golf’s great mysteries – why does a single missed cut see you disposed of in the bargain bin in both DFS and betting?
We’re not complaining – we’ll take $7,600 about a guy who has delivered four top-15 finishes within his last seven starts gladly – but it does make the mind boggle.
Regardless, with three top-10s in his last five trips Francesco Molinari clearly enjoys it at TPC Sawgrass, and nothing else needs to be said about a major winner in pretty decent form right now.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 18th
- Scoring Average – 64th
- SG: Approach – 77th
Low-Tier Pick:
Chris Kirk (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 73.6, GPFP: 75.09 Salary: $7,000)
While not necessarily a Pete Dye specialist, Chris Kirk has delivered some fine performances on the architect’s signature layouts, and his neat approach game is clearly a good fit for Dye’s design eye.
Indeed, in his last nine trips to Sawgrass if you discount one withdrawal Kirk hasn’t missed a single cut, with three top-15 finishes in that span.
You can make a case that Kirk is playing some of his best golf right now, and a formline that features top-10s at the Sony Open and Arnold Palmer – plus three other top-20s within his last seven starts – sets the scene nicely.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 35th
- Scoring Average – 40th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 69th
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 PLAYERS Championship
Ian Poulter (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 53.1, GPFP: 45.67 Salary: $7,100)
Now here is a Pete Dye specialist.
He may now have the silverware to back it up, but Ian Poulter tends to play Dye courses as well as anybody, and a solid run of form at Sawgrass – including a pair of runners-up finishes – is confirmation of that.
While his current form is nothing to write home about, we’ll take a top-20 in the European Tour’s Saudi International, a T25 at The Masters and a top-30 at the Arnold Palmer last week as a hint that his game is in reasonable shape.
A return to Sawgrass should hopefully frank that rather nicely.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 5th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 16th
- Scoring Average – 82nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 PLAYERS Championship
Doug Ghim (Odds: 220/1, FPPG: 68.8, GPFP: 55.02 Salary: $6,200)
It could be a $6,200 dud, of course, given that Doug Ghim will make his Sawgrass debut this week.
But he is a far better player than this lowly salary, and we like to think his natural style will be well suited to this test.
Unlike many 24-year-olds, Ghim is willing to grind out a score, and if you can overlook an 81 in the final round at Bay Hill he is fine fettle – six top-25s in 12 starts this season is confirmation that a $6,200 salary is an absolute steal.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 31st
- SG: Approach – 32nd
- SG: Putting – 71st
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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