Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2021 Valspar Championship

The 2021 Valspar Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

A fun spin at the Zurich Classic saw Team Mullet prevail.

There was a hair-raising finish at the pairs event as Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel took the clubhouse lead, but the mulleted Cameron Smith and the rather more tightly-shorn Marc Leishman showed steel and class to post a couple of late birdies and lift the trophy.

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We move back into the strokeplay arena this week and find ourselves starting the descent towards the PGA Championship in late May at Kiawah Island – the first stop is a look at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook resort for the Valspar Championship.

The 2020 edition was wiped out by the pandemic, and so you’ll have to reach into the deep recesses of your mind for memories of Paul Casey holding off Oosthuizen and Jason Kokrak to win by one in tough conditions down in Palm Harbour.

That was the Englishman’s second successive triumph in the event, and he had to show all of his battling qualities as the wind blew and the Copperhead Course showed its teeth.

And it has plenty of them. A long, undulating stretch at 7,340 yards, Copperhead bears more than a passing resemblance to Augusta National both in look and playing style – is it any wonder that some of the main protagonists in this event – Casey, Tiger, Patrick Reed and Oosthuizen – have also performed rather well in Georgia too?

We certainly don’t think so, and you’ll see what we mean when you take a look at the thick tree-lined fairways that dogleg this way and that.

The small greens are razer sharp too and run at a quick 12 on the stimp – assisted by a week of hot and windy conditions in this part of Florida.

Indeed, the only real difference is that the greens at Innisbrook are almost pure Bermuda – the previous Poa overseeding has now all but vanished.

With five Par 3s and four Par 5s, the Copperhead Course has unique routing, and the shorter holes typically play over par – when Casey won in 2019, his winning score of -8 was rather well assisted by a tally of -15 on the Par 5s. If you don’t do the business on the scorable holes here, you don’t have a chance of winning.

A tough old grind, a score of -10 has been enough to win four of the last five editions of the Valspar Championship, and the dry and breezy conditions suggest something similar will be in the offing this week too.

That should be something of a leveller, and so perhaps we will see a few long odds picks enter the frame – as a result, our Valspar Championship 2021 sleeper shortlist is published below with relish!

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The 2021 Valspar Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

Charley Hoffman – 50/1 – No stranger to decent success at Augusta National, Charley Hoffman has delivered five consecutive top-30s at Magnolia Lane.

It’s been surprisingly boom-and-bust at Innisbrook then, with three missed cuts matched by three top-25s in his last half-dozen trips.

But in the throes of some good form, with solo second at the Texas Open joining top-20s at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, PLAYERS Championship and RBC Heritage, we’re expecting one of Hoffman’s strong Copperhead efforts this week.

Ryan Palmer – 55/1 – While not a regular visitor to Innisbrook, Ryan Palmer does have the kind of game that can thrive at this stretch.

A decent shaper off the tee, Palmer is excellent with irons in hand and has a reliable putting stroke, and but for a questionable chipping technique he probably would have won more in his career.

It’s hard to argue the point that he’s in the best form of his life right now, with six top-20s in his last ten strokeplay events, including a T2 at Torrey Pines and solo fourth at the Tournament of Champions. It’s the kind of formline that can, often, precipitate a TOUR victory.

Chris Kirk – 55/1 – Another who is enjoying a fine run of form right now is Chris Kirk, who appears to be making up for lost time after a period away from the TOUR.

His last five starts have delivered a trio of top-10s, a T25 at the Honda Classic and a solid cut made at TPC Sawgrass, so Kirk’s good form is travelling across state lines and even course types.

His neat-and-tidy style can work at Innisbrook too, and he appears so comfortable in approaching greens right now – and chipping when he misses the surface – he seems as decent a play as any in this long-odds category right now.

Kevin Na – 55/1 – There’s definitely a ‘sleeper’ quality to Kevin Na’s form right now, and 55/1 is an excellent price on a player who loves it on the Copperhead Course.

A winner of the Sony Open a couple of months ago, Na has followed up with a variety of missed cuts and nothing efforts – but also T11 at the WGC-workday in excellent company and T12 at The Masters.

Three top-10s at Innisbrook in seven trips – including a T2 in 2014 – set the scene for a player who is becoming a more prolific winner as the years go by.

Bubba Watson – 60/1 – Another Augusta specialist, it’s surprising that Bubba doesn’t have his name on the Valspar trophy yet.

It’s not as if he hasn’t tried – in his last four trips, he has T3 and T4 finishes to his name, and this really is a golf course where Bubba can thrive.

He was up to his old tricks at Augusta last time out with a solid T26 showing – if he’d have made some putts, that could have been even better – so we have no qualms about adding him to the shortlist this week.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 2021 Valspar Championship here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2020-2021)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”1.48%” bar_text=”2 out of 140 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent= “9.63%” bar_text=”13 out of 140 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”25.18%” bar_text=”34 out of 140 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=0%” bar_text=”0 out of 28 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”7.40%” bar_text=”2 out of 28 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”69.62%” bar_text=”94 out of 140 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover photo via Instagram