Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Valspar Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 Valspar Championship
The 2021 Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview
After the fun and games of the Zurich Classic, it’s back to the serious stuff this week with the Valspar Championship.
It was ‘Team Mullet’ – that’s Australian duo Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith – that prevailed in the pairs event, seeing off a late challenge from Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel to lift the Zurich trophy.
That was a fun aside, but it’s back to the serious stuff as the Valspar Championship is followed by the Wells Fargo, the AT&T Byron Nelson and then the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.
There’s a strong field meeting at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook resort, so we can look forward to some ‘proper’ golf this week and all the excitement that brings.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
No love for the Aussie duo last week, with our high hopes riding on Tony Finau’s team and Scottie Scheffler’s.
Sheff’s team ended up finishing T8 while our top Sleeper Pick Richy Werenski finished in 3rd place.
The 2021 Valspar Championship Field
While they both have a win in their rear view mirror, you suspect that Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas aren’t quite firing on all cylinders right now, and that is perhaps why they are in the field this week.
They will be joined at a golf course that has more than a passing resemblance to Augusta National by Patrick Reed, a former Masters champion, and Paul Casey – another with a fine record in Georgia who also happens to be a back-to-back champion at Innisbrook too.
Corey Conners, Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler will add some youthful intrigue, while major champions in Bubba Watson and Justin Rose will be hoping to capitalize on better recent form.
And here’s a fun fact – Phil Mickelson will make his first visit to the Copperhead Course in 17 years!
This Week’s Course Preview
Those who play the Copperhead Course often remark upon its similarities to Augusta National both in its look and how it plays.
It’s doubtful all that much has changed since the PGA TOUR last stopped by in 2019, so again expect a long old slog up and down some big slopes and some heavily tree-lined, doglegging greens.
At 7,340 yards for its Par 71, this is a long old stretch too, and note the unusual routing – there’s five Par 3s, which typically all average over par, and four Par 5s.
Embed from Getty Images
Of the last five renewals, only one was won with a score of lower than -10, and the small Bermuda greens – that’s perhaps the only major difference between Copperhead and Augusta in terms of the grass that the greens are laid with.
There’s some sand, water and there is likely to be some wind, before a closing stretch of three holes known as the ‘Snakepit’. The eighteenth is perhaps the pick of the bunch – an uphill 445-yard Par 4 with a narrow chute of fairway and then a green that slopes viciously from one side to the other.
Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, FL
It’s a gorgeous week in Palm Harbour, with hot sun and none-too-powerful breeze.
The sun is shining all week leading into Thursday, with temperatures hitting 86˚F in a glorious start to proceedings.
Friday is pretty much the same – note that the wind is up to 14mph however – before we head into a slightly cooler weekend.
Even so, it’s still a more-than-agreeable 78˚F with little chance of rain and the wind hovering around the 10mph mark.
Last Year’s Results from the Valspar Championship
While the 2020 edition of the Valspar Championship was one of the events that fell victim to the coronavirus pandemic, in 2019 there was a familiar name at the top of the leaderboard.
Paul Casey clinched a second successive title at Innisbrook, and that means that in the last two editions of this event he has beaten Tiger Woods, Patrick Reed, Louis Oosthuizen and Jason Kokrak by one stroke – that’s further evidence of the Augusta link.
In tough conditions, it only needed one stellar round of 66 for Casey to prevail in 2019, and otherwise he consolidated to finish on -8 – clear of Oosthuizen and Kokrak and two strokes ahead of Bubba Watson, whose Sunday 68 was incredibly the joint-lowest round of the day in blustery conditions.
Paul Casey’s winning highlights from Valspar 2019
In the 2019 Valspar Championship, Paul Casey claimed his third victory on the PGA TOUR with rounds of 70-66-68-72 to finish at 8-under par at Innisbrook. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh The Valspar Championship is held on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valspar Championship this Week
A week away from ‘proper’ DFS golf has probably served to boost your appetite for a big week, and with a nice set of shortlisting tools available to us maybe we can afford to be a touch more cosmopolitan in our staking for the Valspar Championship.
- PGA $750k Flop Shot: Here’s your weekly DFS golf lottery ticket, with the winner scooping $200k from this contest for their $15 entry. The top 24 players trouser a minimum of $1,000.
- PGA $60k Dogleg: A $33 single entry contest is a risk, but the reward comes in the shape of a $10k bounty for the champion. There’s consolation prizes too with the top 85 teams earning a minimum of $100.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 Valspar Championship
While it’s hardly rare for that to be the case, Paul Casey led the way in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green when he prevailed in 2019, and that is what you’d expect at such a layout as Copperhead.
Ideally, you’d like to find plenty of fairways but that’s not always easy with some sharp, doglegging angles off the tee, and while it’s not a disaster if you end up in the rough on some holes having the right angle in to the flag is crucial.
These are small greens and some are hard to hold too, so some soft approaches from a high angle are a good idea – those who try to blast their ball under the wind may find themselves in plenty of bother around the greens.
The Bermuda greens – most of the Poa has now reportedly ‘grown out’ – run at 12 on the stimp and will provide a speedy test, particularly given how dry and windy the conditions are expected to be, and again that is another Augusta-like character trait to consider.
And here’s the most intriguing angle – Casey won at -8 in 2019 as we know, but he played the Par 5s in -15….you don’t need to be a math genius to know that means he played the rest of the holes in +7! Making hay on the scoreable holes is absolutely paramount at Innisbrook.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 Valspar Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 Valspar Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Viktor Hovland (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 84.2, Salary: $10,500)
If you cast your mind back to the featured groups on the first morning of The Masters, Viktor Hovland made a seven on the opening Par 4 hole.
So to bounce back and land a top-25 at Augusta was an astonishing performance, and shows how the Norwegian should be well suited to the Copperhead Course too.
He dragged Kris Ventura into contention at the Zurich Classic last week as well, and with two PGA TOUR titles to his name at the age of 23 this is a young man with the brightest of futures.
Key Stats:
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 7th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 8th
- Scoring Average – 19th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Patrick Reed (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 77.8, Salary: $10,300)
Given the Augusta vibe – and considering how fast and dry we’re expecting conditions to be in Palm Harbour – Patrick Reed immediately springs to mind.
He loves it here – twice finishing second – and as we know he enjoys life at Augusta too, and with some decent form in the tank he is a major player this week.
A winner at the Farmers Insurance Open, Reed has followed up with top-10s at The Masters and in a WGC, so clearly he is playing well enough to compete once again.
If he performs well off the tee, Reed’s scoring shots can come into their own at Innisbrook and he should love life on these fast, pure greens.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 2nd
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 9th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 58th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Talor Gooch (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 62.9, Salary: $8,000)
These pure tests of all-round golf seem to bring the best out of Talor Gooch, who in the past few months has recorded a T5 at TPC Sawgrass, T12 at Riviera and opened with a round of 66 at Torrey Pines.
While a sole trip to Innisbrook has yielded a missed cut, there’s a chance that the Copperhead Course will actually suit a young man who is solid off the tee and excellent with irons in hand.
A slightly below-par chipping game is a concern whenever the greens are smaller than average, however Gooch is an excellent grinder who has a happy knack of making hay on the Par 5s.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 29th
- SG: Approach – 48th
- SG: Putting – 57th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Charl Schwartzel (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 51.2, Salary: $7,100)
South Africans have a habit of doing well at Augusta and they have an excellent record at Innisbrook too – Charl Schwartzel lifted the trophy here in 2016.
He would have enjoyed competing at the business end of the event at the Zurich Classic last week, and that franked some improved form of late for the former Masters champ – a top-20 at Torrey Pines was backed by T26 at Augusta.
A solid pro when at his best, Schwartzel couldn’t find a more suitable golf course to play on than Copperhead if he tried.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 10th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 50th
- Scrambling – 63rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Henrik Stenson (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 32.8, Salary: $7,000)
There are some intriguing bargains available this week – or potential bargains anyway – and there’s enough juice in the $7,000 here to see if Henrik Stenson can continue his recent improvement.
The Swede ground out a top-40 at Augusta, which when you consider he had missed four consecutive cuts prior that was a massive sea-change in form.
Stenson then played a full role in his and Justin Rose’s temporary ascent to the top of the leaderboard at the Zurich Classic – they eventually dropped down to T11, but that is still another step in the right direction.
As the good vibes return, Stenson will probably enjoy a return to Innisbrook far more – he’s 24-MC-7-11-4 here, which is an excellent formline at such a difficult golf course.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 20th
- SG: Approach – 43rd
- SG: Around-the-Green – 77th
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Valspar Championship
Erik van Rooyen (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 50.1, Salary: $7,600)
Another South African who should enjoy a course that he would naturally be comfortable on is Erik van Rooyen.
Thick tree-lines and Bermuda greens are par for the course in South Africa, and a decent enough tee-to-green performer like Van Rooyen should be able to thrive in such familiar surroundings.
His strokeplay form might not be the best, but a top-20 last time out at the Texas Open should at least offer some hope.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 70th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 74th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 79th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Valspar Championship
Phil Mickelson (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 59.4, Salary: $7,200)
Even at the age of 50, you can still find a bit of form when the mood suits and Phil Mickelson is hitting the ball much better right now.
The leftie finished T21 at The Masters, and that backs up T25 at the Honda Classic and T35 at the PLAYERS Championship, and so Phil is still able to mix it with the young bucks.
The fact that he hasn’t played at Innisbrook much is a concern – presumably he doesn’t fancy it much, however this layout should suit his game in much the same way as Augusta National has down the years.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 95th
- SG: Approach – 115th
- SG: Putting – 130th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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