Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 PGA Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 PGA Championship
The 2021 PGA Championship Fantasy Preview
At a golf course that few in the field had seen before, it was always possible that fine margins might make all the difference.
And perhaps the biggest difference-maker of all was Brett Waldren, a former grinder who finished T14 in PGA TOUR qualifying at TPC Craig Ranch way back in 2010.
What’s our point? Well, Waldren is now a caddie and has been on bag duties for K.H. Lee, who – you’ve guessed it already – went on to win the Byron Nelson Championship on Sunday at TPC Craig Ranch.
It helped of course that the Korean delivered a career-best tee-to-green performance, but having someone with knowhow in your corner never hurts and Waldren’s influence was clear for all to see – Lee was as cool as a cucumber as the wind blew in Dallas.
It was wetter than the proverbial otter’s pocket at Craig Ranch, but Lee overcame a lengthy weather delay on Sunday to clinch a nerve-less maiden PGA TOUR triumph – if he continues to strike the ball as well as this, you suspect it won’t be his last.
One of the Korean’s immediate rewards for victory is a place in this week’s PGA Championship, although a repeat of his -25 winning score last time out seems to be an impossibility given the challenge presented by the Ocean Course on Kiawah Island.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
We’re proud to report that all seven picks from last week’s segment and five from our Tuesday Sleeper Report made the weekend!
With the 12/12 made cuts, our best result was Patton Kizzire and Charl Schwartzal both with a T3 finish.
The 2021 PGA Championship Field
The 156-man field is set, and all eyes will be on Rory McIlroy, who set a tournament record when he won by eight strokes at Kiawah Island in this event back in 2012. Fresh from victory in the Wells Fargo Championship, the Irishman will be one to watch.
As ever, a major brings together the best in the business, and South Carolina is set to be hit by a wave of them – Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, defending champion Collin Morikawa and many more besides.
Jordan Spieth is looking for the career grand slam, while the likes of Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau and Viktor Hovland are all trying to win their first.
This being a major, there’s a runabout for some former champions too, and it’s always fun to see the likes of John Daly – who seems to be winning his battle with ill health – and Rich Beem tee it up.
This Week’s Course Preview
History will be made this week – the Ocean Course will officially be the longest venue in the annals of major golf.
What’s more, it’s a design that has been described by Golf Digest as the hardest course in America.
Measuring 7,876 yards at its tips – yes, you read that correctly, the plot thickens when we note the names of the Ocean Course’s designers; Mr P. Dye and Mrs A. Dye.
So, as if the mammoth length wasn’t enough, the players can also expect lots of bunkers – not traditional, but collections of sand that can be light and fluffy or compact and clay-like – false fronts, forced carries, shaved run-offs and more demons from the Dye playbook.
Interestingly, the greens are seeded with Paspalum, which is a pretty grainy and slow grass often found in South America, the Caribbean and parts of Asia. It will be intriguing to see which players adapt the best this week.
Just writing about the Ocean Course is exhausting, so imagine playing it – aside from Rory’s magnificence nine years ago, second place was secured with a score of -5 and the cutline fell at +6.
Weather Forecast for Kiawah, SC
If nothing else, the players will enjoy getting some sun on their backs at Kiawah Island.
That is the prevailing weather pattern, and temperatures could top 82˚F as the tournament concludes on a sultry Sunday.
The early forecast suggests minimal chance of rain, and even the wind – which can blow furiously – is expected to top out at 13mph, but as ever keep a close eye on the localized forecast as close to the start of the event as you dare.
Last Year’s Results from the PGA Championship
It’s been barely nine months since Collin Morikawa was crowned king of TPC Harding Park and clinched the PGA Championship crown.
He bettered Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey by two strokes to land his maiden major, and that was despite starting the Sunday two shots behind DJ.
But an outstanding round of 64 – aided by some bold shot-making which included a drive to within 7ft of the Par 4 sixteenth – propelled the youngster above an unusually sluggish Johnson.
In the end, the 129 shots Morikawa took over the weekend equaled the PGA Championship record low – this was the most deserved of major victories.
No Title
Collin Morikawa, a former Cal Bear, put together a historic back-9 charge to win the PGA Championship at Harding Park. Dennis O’Donnell reports. (8-9-20)
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the PGA Championship this Week
The majors bring with them an outstanding slate of contest quality and variety, and so this is as good a week as any to explore ways in which we can maximize the return from our investments – or just have some fun with the milly maker, if you prefer.
- PGA $3M Fantasy Millionaire: There’s a dual prize on offer in the big one – a handsome $1 million cash prize – yes please – but also a free ticket into the Tournament of Champions contest in January, where you will have a chance to win another milly. Of course, there’s lots of handy consolation prizes too.
- PGA $600k Drive the Green: If your milly maker entries have made a dent in your bankroll, this $5 entry contest could top your account back up – the top 25% of players will take home a prize.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 PGA Championship
Well, where do we even begin!?
It seems almost a given that being long off the tee will be a major advantage, although remember that the rough is expected to be up – there has to be a happy medium, you suspect.
As with most Dye layouts, strategy will also come into play, and hitting approaches into the right part of these raised greens will be essential – tee-to-green mastery will be a major part of the puzzle.
Few in the field will have much competitive experience on Paspalum, and note that these surfaces do tend to run slower than average – that can catch plenty out.
This is an exposed windy layout too, so that’s another consideration, and winning a major is hard enough anyway – that is a tale as old as time!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 PGA Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 PGA Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 86.5, GPFP: 94.24 Salary: $11,300)
It will be interesting to see by the end of the week what difference previous form on Paspalum greens truly makes.
One player who does have a fondness for the surface is Justin Thomas, who has won a hatful of events in Asia on Paspalum greens – albeit quite probably a different strain.
In addition, JT is a winner at another Pete Dye layout (TPC Sawgrass) and loves these squally, coastal tests – triumphing at the Sony Open and the Tournament of Champions already.
One of the most prolific winners on the planet, Thomas always gives his backers a shot at victory and in conditions that particularly suit, you’d like to think that he can go close once again.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 100-125 yards – 17th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 19th
- Birdie Average – 45th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Viktor Hovland (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 86.2, GPFP: 68.94 Salary: $9,300)
A former winner on Paspalum, Viktor Hovland should feel at home on the greens of Kiawah Island and, all being well, will enjoy the wider conditions too.
The Puerto Rico Open is about as far removed from a major as you can imagine, but the Norwegian won that event in excellent fashion and has previous at Pebble Beach too remember – these coastal conditions are of no concern.
Hovland opened his Masters account with a seven before closing out an excellent T21 finish, and since then he’s also finished T3 at both the Wells Fargo and the Valspar Championship, so this is a supremely gifted young man at the peak of his powers.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 1st
- Total Driving – 9th
- SG: Approach – 23rd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Tony Finau (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 78.4, GPFP: 101.14 Salary: $8,600)
He’s not somebody you’d necessarily seek out at the top-tier prices, but when stuck somewhere in the middle like this Tony Finau is always an interesting play.
His form is a bit wobbly, but sandwiched in-between all of those is a top-10 at The Masters and solo second at the Genesis Invitational – further evidence, perhaps, that Tony only truly gets revved up for the big tournaments.
Contradicting ourselves somewhat, Finau is a former Puerto Rico Open champion and has other Paspalum form in the tank as well, and a guy who finished solo third at the British Open in 2019 at a breezy Royal Portrush is not going to be inconvenienced by wind and Links-style conditions.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 10th
- SG: Approach – 13th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 28th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Matt Kuchar (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 55.6, GPFP: 44.46 Salary: $7,000)
There are signs that Matt Kuchar is getting somewhere near his solid best, and in the most ‘Kucher-esque’ conditions he has to be on the radar.
Three top-20s in his last four PGA TOUR starts signal a return to the consistency he has been famed for, and while he hasn’t contested for honors in those his chances will increase if the conditions are really tough on Kiawah Island.
A former winner at Dye’s Sawgrass, Kooch’s record on coastal tracks has few equals – he’s won the Sony Open, RBC Heritage and Mayakoba Classic, with a runner-up spot in the British Open to throw into the mix too.
A lack of length may be an issue, but few will keep their ball in play as often as Kuchar this week.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 17th
- SG: Putting – 68th
- Greens in Regulation – 85th
Low-Tier Pick:
Ryan Palmer (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 80.7, GPFP: 64.54 Salary: $6,900)
A renowned wind player and an excellent driver of the ball, Ryan Palmer comes gift-wrapped at a very agreeable price this week.
You have to go back six months or more to find the last time the Texan last missed a cut, and his success has come from some excellent all-round performances.
It’s been a while since he contested the thick end of a tournament, but T17 at Sawgrass and T34 at Augusta confirm that Palmer is on the brink of something more substantial in the near future – that’s the hope, anyway.
If nothing else, you will struggle to find any player at a sub $7,000 price with such a strong formline over the medium term.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 21st
- Scrambling – 40th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 48th
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 PGA Championship
Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 69.8, GPFP: 55.86 Salary: $7,000)
While it would be a huge surprise if Emiliano Grillo was to win the PGA Championship, we can still ride the coattails of his recent excellent form to achieve maximum sleeper returns.
The Argentine has served up finishes of T21 or better in five of his last seven PGA TOUR outings, and even if that is because of a carefully curated schedule then we shouldn’t bemoan the fact – he should also thrive on Kiawah too.
A long, straight driver of the golf ball, Grillo is also excellent with irons in hand and as such is well placed to tackle Pete Dye golf courses – he boasts some decent performances on Paspalum greens too.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 11th
- SG: Approach – 17th
- Scoring Average – 19th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 PGA Championship
Stewart Cink (Odds: 170/1, FPPG: 69.6, GPFP: 89.08 Salary: $6,900)
Reach into the deepest, darkest recesses of your mind, and you may just recall the time that Stewart Cink won the British Open back in 2009.
That’s a long time ago and the veteran is a different style of player these days, but he still loves exposed, Links-style conditions – that was evident when he won the RBC Heritage earlier this season.
Cink has added plenty of length to his game in recent years, and he might not need every yard of that at Kiawah Island – having the best season of his career so far, he should relish the challenge.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 1st
- SG: Approach – 19th
- Driving Distance – 23rd
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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