Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Open Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 Open Championship
The 2021 Open Championship Fantasy Preview
There’s no other tournament like it in golf, and DFS gamers and bettors alike will be salivating at the prospect of the return of the British Open.
Make no mistake, there are some tenets of Links golf played on the PGA TOUR from time to time, but this is classic British golf in unforgiving conditions – for club hackers, it’s fantastic to watch the best in the world struggling!
And we expect them to at Royal St George’s in Kent, England. The last time this venue hosted the British Open in 2011, Darren Clarke won with -5 and just a small handful of players finished the week under par. Plenty has changed in the decade since, of course, but the same test will remain.
To mark your card on events that took place over the weekend, our sleeper pick Lucas Glover prevailed in the John Deere Classic by two shots from Kevin Na and Ryan Moore, while in the Scottish Open some notable names featured – the Australian, Min Woo Lee, won, but PGA TOUR regulars Matt Fitzpatrick, Ian Poulter, Ryan Palmer, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele all finished in the top-10 as they stepped up their British Open prep.
But without further ado, let’s take a look at what’s in store this week.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
We’ll admit, we were totally saved by our Tuesday Sleeper Report last week. We had three Top-11’s over there including the winner Lucas Glover.
Along with Glover we had Kizzire (T11) and Lebioda (T8) to offer up some strong DFS fire power.
Here’s what we said about Glover heading into the John Deere Classic:
Lucas Glover – 55/1 – He’s not a glamorous pick nor a prolific winner, but if Lucas Glover is to cash in on his undoubted talent then this is the kind of week it will happen.
An excellent ball-striker, putting has long been a mystery for the veteran – however, there are some caveats to note.
The first is that he plays well at TPC Deere Run – 10-25 in his last two visits, in fact. That suggests he likes how these greens are cut.
Glover has been putting better lately – he ranked 28th for SG: Putting in Detroit – and it will only take a slight improvement from that to contend this week.
…and he made it happen. Boom!
The 2021 Open Championship Field
This is a major standard field, as you would expect, but there are some notable admissions to fill you in on.
Obviously, Tiger Woods won’t be in the field – we await further details of his progress with interest.
For Covid-related reasons, Hideki Matsuyama and Bubba Watson have decided not to travel to the UK – the former is desperate to represent Japan in the Olympic Games in Tokyo, so you can’t blame him really. Sungjae Im and David Duval has also withdrawn.
Otherwise, it’s as high-class you’d expect with the vast majority of the world’s top-50 in Sandwich, the appropriately-named host town, with Shane Lowry finally getting a chance to defend the Claret Jug he won in 2019.
This Week’s Course Preview
It’s a trip to the quintessential British seaside this week, and the players may just want to pack their bucket and spades.
Royal St George’s features swathes of sand, from the traditional deep bunkers you’d expect on a Links layout to dune land that will gobble up errant tee shots and approaches.
Playing at 7,204 for its Par 70, the course features just two Par 5s and some meaty Par 4s too – the routing of Royal St George’s is in a figure-of-eight shape, and so the players won’t have a consistent wind direction to master….as such, some of these holes will play mightily long in the breeze.
This is classic Links golf by the coast, and so we’re expecting the fairways and greens to have plenty of run in them – aided by a decent weather forecast by all accounts. That will test the field through the bag, and particularly on the Bentgrass greens, where the wind and firm ground can make reading more difficult than normal.
With long fescue grass in the rough, shaved run-offs on the greens and some blind approaches, Royal St George’s will provide the kind of test befitting a golf course that first hosted this major back in the 1800s….and hasn’t been overly tinkered with ever since.
Weather Forecast for Sandwich, Kent, England
It’s very much a week of two halves down in the south coast of England.
Monday through Wednesday will see some rain, and cooler temperatures into the bargain.
However, the good news is that Thursday should – according to the forecast – be sunny and with a low chance of rain, and that theme continues throughout the week with sunny spells and top temperatures of around 70˚F. Not blisteringly hot, but not too bad.
But one item of note is definitely the wind speeds. According to the predictions, a conservative estimate of 13-16 mph is in place – that’s likely to be higher at ground level. It’s certainly going to be blowy!
SANDWICH WEATHER
Last Year’s Results from the 2020 Open Championship
While the 2020 edition of the British Open was wiped out by the pandemic, you may just recall Shane Lowry’s emotional victory on home soil.
Royal Portrush was the host of the event for the first time in more than 50 years, and it did not disappoint – putting on a week of typically Irish conviviality.
And Lory must have felt right at home, posting a course record 63 in the third round. Despite a nervy final turn of 72, the local hero was far enough clear to keep a handsome gap to Tommy Fleetwood in solo second and Tony Finau in third.
Lee Westwood and Brooks Koepka, who became only the fifth player in history to finish inside the top-five of all four majors in a single season, were locked at T5.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Open Championship this Week
If you’ve been playing DFS golf for a while now you know what this week brings – stacks of different contests, and some with huge, life-changing prizes to be won. Managing your budget is a key aspect of major week, so here’s two contests to get you started.
- PGA $2.5m Fantasy Golf Millionaire: Well, it would be rude not to, right? The big play this week is this $10 contest, which rewards the winner with $1 million and a ticket to the Tournament of Champions event. There’s stacks of consolation prizes too.
- PGA $500k Drive the Green: You wonder what percentage of gamers have cottoned on to the unique machinations of Links golf, and in a deep field that lack of understanding could be their undoing. You don’t have such concerns, of course, so let’s accumulate some handy payouts in this $5, multi-entry contest.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 Open Championship
It’s impossible not to stress enough the importance of Links form and history when drafting for the British Open.
It’s amazing that more PGA TOUR pros don’t take the chance to play in the Irish or Scottish Open, the perfect precursor events to the major, and those that do have to be respected alongside those who have shown their class in these unique conditions in the past.
It’s not just about the wind on Links layouts, there’s other factors to consider. Club selection is key, because these fairways and greens simply run and run – what start out as quality tee shots can actually turn to dust as the ball rolls into the first cut of rough and beyond.
And approaching these greens with a nice high trajectory can be advantageous, as can hitting bump-and-runs and other ‘runner’ style chips from around the surfaces.
In essence, Links golf requires a skillset that is almost exclusive to these golf courses – hence why some prosper in these conditions and others routinely fail.
With the high winds and tightly mown edges to the greens, scrambling and chipping will be vital as the players look to grind out a winning total – as little as a couple of strokes under par could be enough to get the job done at Royal St George’s.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 Open Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 Open Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jordan Spieth (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 74.3, GPFP: 59.46 Salary: $9,700)
For a player whose game is almost purpose-built for success in the British Open, it’s no wonder that Jordan Spieth has such a fine record in this event.
A winner in 2017, he also has two other top-10s on the Links and finished T20 back in 2019 – that was at the stop of his descent to the doldrums.
But Spieth has battled back remarkably well, and since his redemptive victory in the Texas Open his form has held with a solo second turn the Charles Schwab Challenge matched by T3 in The Masters, a top-10 at the Byron Nelson and top-30s in the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship.
His excellence through the bag helps on Links golf, and while Spieth may be wayward off the tee he retains that element of grit and determination that is so vital in these conditions.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 8th
- SG: Approach – 19th
- Scoring Average – 20th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 78.9, GPFP: 102.60 Salary: $9,600)
Spieth’s old chum Justin Thomas is available at a very generous salary this week.
A mediocre record on the Links is perhaps the reason, but JT seemed to find a way at Royal Portrush in 2019 and opted to play in the Scottish Open last week – finished in T8.
He was outstanding off the tee and around the greens there, and if his iron game returns to its baseline of being rather good then Thomas has the tools at his disposal to challenge for the title.
A prolific winner, we know that JT has the stones to close out a major too,
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 5th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 13th
- Scrambling – 37th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Tommy Fleetwood (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 61.5, GPFP: 49.79 Salary: $8,000)
A loss of form appears to have been righted by Tommy Fleetwood since his return to European soil.
A solid 17-26 return at the Irish and Scottish Opens indicates that his game is moving in the right direction, and for a player who thrives in the Links environment we have to be bullish about the Englishman’s hopes.
A sublime chipper and scrambler, it’s little wonder that Fleetwood’s last three attempts at the British Open have ended 2-12-17, and as a self-confessed lover of the wind he will be in his element in Kent this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 6th
- SG: Total – 79th
- Total Driving – 80th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 63.1, GPFP: 50.50 Salary: $7,400)
Here’s a nod to a player that is still largely unknown in the United States.
But Christiaan Bezuidenhout is firmly in the world’s top-50 after winning three times worldwide since the start of 2019, and he too has the ideal game for Links golf.
Able to keep his ball in play in all weathers, the South African is a useful scrambler on the odd occasion that he can’t, and his chipping game is as good as any that has graduated from the European Tour in recent years.
In his last five PGA TOUR starts, Bezuidenhout has finished no lower than T40 – a run which includes The Masters, U.S. Open and PGA Championship, so he is certainly capable of mixing it with the best in the world.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 3rd
- SG: Around-the-Green – 4th
- Scrambling – 86th
Low-Tier Pick:
Alex Noren (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 57.5, GPFP: 46.04 Salary: $7,200)
T4 in his penultimate start at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he closed out with a round of 64, we have to give Alex Noren a chance this week.
The Swede may have missed the cut at the John Deere, but he will be in comfortable surroundings this week given his penchant for Links golf.
Noren is a former Scottish and French Open champion, both of which are played in correlating conditions, and has won at Celtic Manor too.
With a British Open top-20 to his name, this is the perfect event for such a noted wind player, and with good form in the bank Noren is an interesting pick this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 37th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 54th
- Scoring Average – 71st
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Open Championship
Jason Day (Odds: 85/1, FPPG: 54.8, GPFP: 43.81 Salary: $7,700)
Australians have a habit of playing well in the British Open, with the conditions seeming to suit their bump-and-run style.
Indeed, Jason Day has an excellent record in this major, with only one missed cut in his last eight attempts and a best of T4 in 2015.
A player known for his proclivity for withdrawing in the middle of events, Day has been more reliable of late and head to the UK on the back of T10 and T14 finishes respectively at the Travelers Championship and Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 19th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 21st
- Scoring Average – 55th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Open Championship
Matt Jones (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 63.6, GPFP: 80.75 Salary: $6,800)
It’s surprising that Matt Jones hasn’t done better in the British Open thanks to his outstanding short game.
But the Australian does have a top-30 to his name on the Links, and we expect more of the same this year given the improvements in his play.
Jones ended a long title drought with victory at the Honda Classic a few months ago, and while his form has been patchy since we expect him to enjoy the test presented by Royal St George’s.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 25th
- SG: Putting – 38th
- Scoring Average – 38th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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