Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 TOUR Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the TOUR Championship
TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview
And then there was 30….and what a fantastic way to usher in the PGA TOUR season finale at the BMW Championship.
Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau, of whom you couldn’t meet two more contrasting personalities, did battle in a fascinating duel on a low-scoring Sunday at Caves Valley GC.
The duo traded birdies on the front nine and could not be separated down the closing straight, with Bryson’s clutch putt at the 72nd hole – and Cantlay’s nerve-less birdie – sending us into a playoff for what feels like the hundredth week in a row on TOUR.
Fittingly, it took six extra holes to separate the pair as they exchanged blows in an attempt to clinch the trophy, and in the end it was Bryson who blinked first to enable Cantlay to claim his fifth PGA TOUR title, his third in the past calendar year and his second of 2021.
Such consistency has taken Cantlay to the top of the FedExCup standings….but can he convert his lead at the season-ending TOUR Championship?
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Oh so close with our guy Bryson!
Last week we had the 1-2 punch of JT and Bryson and unfortunately for us, JT faded to 22nd and Bryson lost in a LONG playoff to Patrick Cantlay.
The shining star from our Tuesday Sleeper Report was Sungae Im, who finished solo third.
TOUR Championship Field
Hundreds have tried but only 30 remain to contest the big bucks finale of the FedExCup race. Since 2019, the TOUR Championship has taken on its ‘staggered’ starting leaderboard to reflect the standings, and so this is how the field will kick off on Thursday:
- Patrick Cantlay -10
- Tony Finau -8
- Bryson DeChambeau -7
- Jon Rahm -6
- Cameron Smith -5
- Justin Thomas, Harris English, Abraham Ancer, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns -4
- Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, Sungjae Im, Viktor Hovland, Louis Ooosthuizen -3
- Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Brooks Koepka -2
- Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, Stewart Cink, Joaquin Niemann, Scottie Scheffler -1
- Daniel Berger, Erik van Rooyen, Sergio Garcia, Billy Horschel, Patrick Reed E
At the time of writing, Patrick Reed hadn’t long been out of hospital after battling pneumonia, but the consensus is that he will be well enough to start on Thursday.
This Week’s Course Preview
A seasonal finale needs a fitting send-off, and East Lake Golf Club is perhaps the perfect venue for such a prestigious billing.
Neither a birdie-fest nor a US Open level of difficult, East Lake is the ideal host course in that it rewards exceptional ball-striking….most would agree that’s exactly what the TOUR Championship should represent.
Measuring 7,319 yards for its Par 70, East Lake is a long old stretch, and with some dense tree-lines it really does take an excellent driver of the golf ball to succeed. And the layout is routinely described as a ‘second shot course’, and you can see why – any slightly errant approaches can be lost by the fast Bermuda greens which feature tightly-mown edges.
With the yardage and the fact that there’s only two Par 5s, you know instinctively that the Par 4s are long and testing – especially with lots of sand and water in play on six of them.
Many of the great and good of golf design have their fingerprints on East Lake, with Tom Bendelow’s original build supplemented by renovation work from the likes of Rees Jones, Donald Ross and George Cobb.
The result? A tough but fair test of golf that is befitting of the PGA TOUR’s seasonal curtain call.
Weather Forecast for Atlanta, GA
It’s been a freaky couple of weeks on TOUR for weather conditions, but the good news – whisper it – is that the forecast for Atlanta is holding up quite nicely.
There are some thunderstorms in the early part of the week, but the early predictions suggest that Thursday should be a belter – warm sunshine, low winds and temperatures around the 82˚F mark.
It should only serve to get better from there, with sunny spells interspersed with cloud and wind speeds that remain in the single digits throughout. By Sunday, the mercury could hit 87˚F too.
Last Year’s Results from the TOUR Championship
Under the new format, there are two contests to watch out for at the TOUR Championship.
The first is to see who wins the traditional ‘strokeplay’ event, i.e. if no head starts were given to the players. By that token, the 2020 champion would have been Xander Schauffele, who powered his way up the leaderboard and made four shots on Dustin Johnson, who started in pole position at -10.
But DJ would not be denied, whose weekend of 64-68 was enough for him to consolidate his advantage to win by three shots from Schauffele and the fast-finishing Justin Thomas.
Dustin Johnson’s winning highlights from the 2020 TOUR Championship
At the 2020 TOUR Championship, Dustin Johnson claimed his 23rd victory of his PGA TOUR career and the FedExCup with rounds of 67-70-64-68 to finish at 21-under at East Lake Golf Club. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh The PGA TOUR heads to East Lake Golf Club, where the TOUR Championship brings the 2019-2020 PGA TOUR season to a close.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the TOUR Championship this Week
The 2020-21 season comes to a dramatic end this week at East Lake, and there will be some DFS gamers keen to make hay while the sun shines. But some caution is advised – with just 30 players in the field, duplicate line-ups and shared prize money is a given, and that could impact on your ROI.
- PGA $150k Up and Down: We wouldn’t ordinarily advise this strategy, but both our contests this week are single or low entry encounters. The multi-entry is capped at 93 in this $55 entry game, where the winner trousers a handy $50k.
- PGA $200k Driver: It costs a not-inconsequential $200 to enter this contest, but the upside is that it is single entry and so you can really make your draft count. Besides, the winner again takes home a cool $50k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the TOUR Championship
It’s perhaps easy to get bogged down in the starting leaderboard at the TOUR Championship, rather than focusing on the basic profile of players that can succeed at East Lake.
These are famous last words, but this is not a venue that necessarily suits Patrick Cantlay’s natural game – instead, we’re looking for long, straight drivers of the golf ball whose approach play is also of an elite level.
That’s why Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele have won here twice in the past five years, and why Tiger Woods prevailed in 2018 – East Lake is a ball-striking paradise.
If you can find quality drivers who shine with their irons then you won’t go far wrong, because they have a clear edge over those who might miss greens on approach and leave themselves in all kinds of mess.
Of course, we’re still looking for strong putters on fast Bermuda greens, but all things considered the edge at East Lake is found from tee-to-green – and that is a formula we will be following with some interest this week.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win TOUR Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the TOUR Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Bryson DeChambeau (Odds: 5/1, FPPG: 84.0, GPGP: 94.02 Salary: $12,300)
It’s okay saying that East Lake is not a natural fit for Cantlay, but given his considerable lead at the top of the standings we still don’t want our top picks to be giving too many shots away to him.
Tony Finau is a winner now, and he is certainly of interest just two shots adrift of Cantlay, but it’s Bryson DeChambeau – just three back – who appeals the most.
Bryson has been playing outstanding golf lately. He seems to have got his radar back off the tee, giving him a better chance of finding the short grass to go with his distance, and his iron and wedge game has been much sharper too.
His link-up with new caddie Brian Zeigler seems to be paying dividends, and he may even be able to convince Bryson to keep the driver sheathed from time to time – that will certainly aid his chances on some of the holes at East Lake.
The three-shot deficit means that DeChambeau is something of an ‘underdog’ this week, and you sense he will wear that tag with relish.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
- Scoring Average – 4th
- SG: Approach – 53rd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Rory McIlroy (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 74.0, GPGP: 89.49 Salary: $9,300)
Sportsbook dwellers will love the 12/1 about Rory McIlroy winning the classic strokeplay portion of this event, and we reckon he will fire his way up the FedEx leaderboard too.
His ball-striking was absolutely immaculate at TPC Southwind a few weeks ago, and those following his game closely will have noticed how much more accomplished he looked on the greens at Caves Valley.
The switch to speedier Bermuda may enable him to get even more out of his flat stick, and allied to the fact he perennially plays well at East Lake – few golf courses enable his driver to shine quite like this – McIlroy is a smart option this week with a top-three finish a possibility despite his shot deficit.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 4th
- Scoring Average – 19th
- SG: Approach – 33rd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Brooks Koepka (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 70.0, GPGP: 89.56 Salary: $7,800)
There are those who believe that Brooks Koepka needs a big incentive to really bring his best golf – hence why he’s won so many majors and little else, relatively speaking.
But if the thought of overturning an eight-shot deficit, banking some big bucks and being crowned FedExCup champion doesn’t get Brooks’ blood pumping, nothing will.
Either way, his game was so good at Caves Valley that he will still surely bank plenty of DFS points for his backers, with long courses laid to Bermuda his stock and trade. Could Brooks complete the unlikeliest of victories come Sunday?
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 7th
- Scoring Average – 10th
- SG: Approach – 21st
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Sungjae Im (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 72.7, GPGP: 72.68 Salary: $7,300)
Talking about value and the possibility of high finish points bonuses, Sungjae Im heads into the TOUR Championship just one shot shy of the top-10 and two adrift of the top-five in the standings.
And so the Korean looks to be very much a value proposition in the salary cap – and especially as he is playing so well right now.
Outstanding tee-to-green golf swept Im to solo third at the BMW Championship, and that followed top-20s at the Wyndham and NORTHERN TRUST for much the same reason.
While handy on all surfaces, there is a case to say that Im is at his best on Bermuda – if that heralds an improvement on the greens to go with his ball striking, the results could be spectacular.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
- Scrambling – 30th
- Scoring Average – 30th
Low-Tier Pick:
Corey Conners (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 71.2, GPGP: 71.95 Salary: $6,200)
At the -1 mark, we’re looking for players who can push on up the leaderboard rather than, as seems highly unlikely, going on to win the whole thing.
Corey Conners fits the bill, and in the fullness of time you suspect East Lake is a layout he will grow to enjoy very much.
An outstanding ball-striker, much of the Canadian’s best work comes on Bermuda, and in closing out with a round of 65 here last year he marked his territory for a performance that could far outdo this $6,200 position.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 8th
- SG: Approach – 9th
- Scoring Average – 18th
Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship
Sam Burns (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 70.8, GPGP: 76.44 Salary: $8,500)
With so many classy operators available at sub $6,000 prices this week, we can be creative with how we spend our salary cap and dip once more into the middle of the market.
Surrounded by illustrious company there, Sam Burns might get overlooked – and low ownership % will be key to your success this week.
What you will get is an excellent tee-to-green performer who is reliable enough with the flat stick, and with his best work coming on Bermuda we can certainly expect a decent return from our outlay on the Louisianan.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 18th
- SG: Putting – 20th
- Scoring Average – 25th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship
Erik van Rooyen (Odds: 350/1, FPPG: 56.1, GPGP: 63.45 Salary: $5,000)
Well, why not?
Erik van Rooyen won’t win the TOUR Championship, but if his recent momentum is anything to go by then he can quickly streak up the leaderboard.
The South African has followed up his Barracuda Championship win with top-10s at THE NORTHERN TRUST and BMW Championship, and in contrasting fashion too – he putted extremely well at Liberty National, and ranked first for Ball Striking at Caves Valley.
All of which bodes rather nicely….
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 57th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 60th
- SG: Approach – 82nd
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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