Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Fantasy Preview
Valuable lessons have been learned by DFS gamers that have kept a close eye on the past couple of weeks of PGA TOUR action.
The principle learning is to give an extra edge in your handicapping to players who have something to prove – or, at least, plenty to gain – by playing winning golf.
And that’s not just in terms of shiny trophies or big paychecks….that also includes deeper, almost pathological reasons to succeed.
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Exhibit A was Rory McIlroy, who had plenty to prove to others and himself after the Ryder Cup debacle. Should we have been surprised that he won the CJ Cup next time out?
And exhibit B came in the form of Hideki Matsuyama at the ZOZO Championship. He’s made no secret of his desire to win for his Japanese fans on home soil, and with Narashino GC set up perfectly for his all-round game good things were expected.
And Hideki did not disappoint, winning by five shots in an even that he bafflingly was as long as 16/1 with the sportsbooks to win. We hope you benefitted just as much as Matsuyama did….you sense he could take some stopping in this tournament if the ZOZO stays at Narashino for the foreseeable future.
Onwards we go back to the Western hemisphere for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship – forgive us for calling it just the plain old Bermuda Championship from here.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
What a season so far! In just five events this new season, we have successfully picked the winner three (3) times.
So, with a 60% win percentage this year, it only makes sense that we ride these hot flames into Bermuda this week and keep it going.
We had Matusyama as our horse pick last week and in case you missed it, here is what we said about Hideki heading into the ZOZO:
There was a tremendous amount of pressure on the sizable shoulders of Hideki Matusyama at the Olympic Games.
The Japanese star was on home soil and one of his country’s best hopes for a medal, but it was pressure that he wore well – just missing out on the bronze medal.
Hideki will be back in his homeland this week, and few in the field will be as motivated as he is to win the events – happily, he has the class to do exactly that.
His current formline is misleading, to some extent. T6 at the Fortinet Championship, Matsuyama opened up with a 65 at the Shriners before hitting a spectator with a loose shot, which left them in a bloody heap – that seemed to affect him, as it would anybody.
T59 at the CJ Cup looks less than impressive too, but Hideki ranked eleventh for SG: Tee-to-Green and so all is far from lost. An improvement with the flat stick will see him back in contention on home turf.
If you used our GPFP model, you would have noticed Hideki was way up there with a booming 110 GPFP last week! Don’t miss out on some of these Expert Fantasy Tools.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Field
In all of our years of publishing this column, this could be the weakest field we have ever seen for a fully sanctioned PGA TOUR event.
That may sound like extreme hyperbole, but let’s take a look at the head of the betting market: Matt Fitzpatrick is a justifiable favorite, but then we have Cristian Bezuidenhout (one win outside of South Africa), the woefully out-of-form Patrick Reed and the club pro putting of Mito Pereira….all under 20/1!
The in-form Hayden Buckley is still an eye-wateringly short 25/1, Barbasol Championship winner Seamus Power and the talented Adam Hadwin next best.
Danny Willett is an interesting entry, while opportunity knocks – perhaps – for talented European Tour graduates Thomas Detry, Guido Migliozzi and Garrick Higgo.
Otherwise, it’s a field of PGA Tour journeymen, fresh Korn Ferry Tour graduates and the likes of Robert Allenby, who is a princely price of 2500/1!
This Week’s Course Preview
It’s always slightly curious that more top-tier pros don’t fancy the trip to Bermuda, a stunning island that plays host to the sumptuous Royal Port Golf Club.
Robert Trent Jones must have been pinching himself when he was commissioned to design this layout in the sun, and the result is one of his most aesthetically-pleasing tracks ever committed to blueprint.
But it does have that typically resort-style feel, with the course designed as much for wealthy business impresarios with a 15 handicap as it is for elite pros. That is also evidenced by the tiny dimensions – just 6,828 yards for a Par of 71.
That said, the wind provides plenty of defense at Royal Port – when it blows, winning totals like the -15 served up by Brian Gay last year are the norm. When it doesn’t, the -24 delivered by Brendon Todd is expected at a layout that will yield to good golf.
With minimal rough (apart from for the most errant), few bunkers and large greens, there’s little to trouble the players and this event will descend into something of a scrambling and putting contest.
There are some elevation changes, and the Bermuda greens have that slightly grainy quality to them you’d expect from a high wind environment, but otherwise there is nothing to fear at Royal Port.
Weather Forecast for Southhampton, Bermuda
Batten down the hatches….there’s a storm heading for Southampton, Bermuda.
Not in the Biblical sense, but in the wind so strong it will knock your hat and maybe even your eyebrows off your head sense.
Fire up your forecast of choice and you will see similar numbers for wind speed – 25 mph on Thursday, 13 mph on Friday, 17 mph on Saturday and 19 mph on Sunday.
Rain and scattered thunderstorms are also in the mix, as well as sultry, humid temperatures of 80˚F to consider. Maybe that’s why the best in the business have chosen to have the week off….
Last Year’s Results from the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
What do Brian Gay and Wyndham Clark have in common?
Not a great deal, on the face of it, and when playing partners they certainly wouldn’t have spent much time together given the 40-yard difference off the tee.
But there’s more than one way to skin a cat in golf, and both took their own paths to -15 and a playoff in this event 12 months ago.
In truth, they both shared one invaluable trait – a hot week with the putter, and that forced them into extra time. Gay would birdie the first playoff hole to add a fifth PGA TOUR title to his collection at the sprightly age of 48.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship this Week
It takes a brave soul to dive in deep to the Bermuda Championship, and with trips to the Mayakoba Championship and Houston Open in the next few weeks it’s perhaps savvy not to go crazy this week. That said, it’s simply very hard to craft a winning loneup, and that hands a clear edge to those who know their stuff.
- PGA $300k Flop Shot: For an affordable $15, you’ll get an entry into a contest that pays $100k to the winner. A couple of entries will certainly provide plenty of interest, especially with some sizable consolation prizes available too.
- PGA $30k Dogleg: It’s almost sado-masochistic to enter a single entry contest this week, but we really do expect well-informed gamers (such as yourself) to have a clear and obvious advantage. So….why not? There’s $3k to the winner of this $33 entry game.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
So where do we turn this week?
You could argue that less than 10% of this field have anything approaching ‘good form’ under their belts, and so we’re going to have to take a few chances with our line-ups.
What do we know about Royal Port Golf Club: it’s short, windy and features Bermuda greens. That’s a start, at least.
There’s no premium on driving distance nor accuracy – both Gay and Clark showed us that last year, and while quality iron play is welcome any time, any place it’s unlikely that there will be much of that given the wind expected.
And so long-range putting on Bermuda greens may end up as the most simple difference-maker this week. All we can do is play the percentages and opt for those that have shown quality on these surfaces before.
To really open the net a bit wider, we can use three correlating courses – Sea Island (RSM Classic), TPC Southwind (St Jude Classic) and Muirfield Village (Memorial Tournament). They all share some characteristics with Royal Port.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Matt Fitzpatrick (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 71.9, GPFP: 57.54 Salary: $11,000)
We won’t score highly for originality with this pick, but sometimes you simply have to follow the numbers.
Matt Fitzpatrick won the European Tour’s Andalucia Masters in his last start, prevailing by three shots at a Valderrama course where you really do have to play good golf to succeed.
Prior to that, the Brit was T20 in a quality BMW PGA Championship renewal, top-30 in the British Open and showed his teeth for a windy, coastal battle with T2 in the Scottish Open.
In addition, Fitzpatrick has top-10s at TPC Southwind and Muirfield Village, is an excellent long-range putter (key at Royal Port) and is a seven-time winner worldwide. In this field right now, he stands out like a sore thumb.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 17th
- SG: Putting – 38th
- Scoring Average – 45th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Seamus Power (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 45.6, GPFP: 36.46 Salary: $10,200)
The Irishman won his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Barbasol Championship last season to go with seven other top-25 returns – a quality effort indeed.
Power, after shaking off the rust at the Sanderson Farms, went out and scored a T21 return in the Shriners last time out – a handy piece of form in this weak company.
His improvement has come by hitting more fairways, it’s as simple as that, because Power has long shown a fair hand on approach and on the greens.
Comfortable on Bermuda and solid in the wind, maybe Power won’t have to wait too much longer for a second title on the TOUR.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 49th
- Scoring Average – 49th
- SG: Approach – 68th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Hank Lebioda (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 61.4, GPFP: 52.79 Salary: $7,500)
When analyzing this field it’s best not to get bogged down by the current form-lines.
Besides, Hank Lebioda hasn’t been playing that badly – yes, he missed the cut in the Sanderson Farms and Shriners, but he finished under par in both after 36 holes and closed with a 68 at TPC Summerlin.
Having a Florida native on side this week won’t hurt, and the switch back to Bermuda greens should help a player regarded as a pretty decent putter by any measure.
Now all we need is a switch to the ball-striking form that saw Lebioda deliver three consecutive TOUR top-10s in the summer. At a course he likes (16-3 in two trips), stranger things have happened.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 16th
- SG: Approach – 30th
- SG: Putting – 93rd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Bo Hoag (Odds: 85/1, FPPG: 63.6, GPFP: 59.78 Salary: $7,000)
Bo Hoag has been surprisingly quiet so far this term, solely appearing at the Fortinet Championship where he missed the cut (albeit on -1).
He showed some quality last term with six top-25s, including T11 at the Barbasol and T16 at the 3M Open both in July, and if he brings that sort of game this week then Hoag can do very nicely.
With top-30s at both Sea Island and Memorial, there’s some hope that he will take to Royal Port too, and as a high GIR, solid putting kind of player (at his best) he can hopefully be a solid proposition this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 11th
- Par 3 Scoring Average – 18th
- Scrambling – 21st
Low-Tier Pick:
Cameron Percy (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 68.3, GPFP: 54.40 Salary: $6,900)
While he’ll have to drive the ball better than he did at the Fortinet Championship, Cameron Percy is a supreme approach player that is excellent in the wind.
Nobody made a higher GIR % in 2020-21 than the Aussie, and while that highlights a few flaws (why wasn’t he contending for titles?) it’s always a massive stat when comparing his game to this field.
Percy has made the cut in his last seven strokeplay events, and while his rudimentary style is hardly the most eye-catching, he can grind out maybe a top-40 finish this week if all things are equal.
Key Stats:
- Putting from > 25ft – 89th
- SG: Approach – 120th
- Birdie Average – 130th
Sleeper Pick for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Austin Cook (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 69.7, GPFP: 58.55 Salary: $6,900)
To give you an idea of how golf can change, Max Homa was 100/1 to win the Bermuda Championship 12 months ago – he’s now ranked 33 in the world.
That’s not to say that Austin Cook will reach those dizzying heights, but he was a young players as hotly tipped as Homa has been, and maybe he is going about his ascent in a different way.
He’s already won at Sea Island, which is a happy angle this week, and he ahs a top-30 to his name in the British Open – that shows that Cook is comfortable in the wind and on exposed layouts.
There have been the smallest of possible green shoots of recovery, with T11 at the Korn Ferry Championship matched by the same finish at the Fortinet Championship. Something similar this week would do very nicely!
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 33rd
- SG: Putting – 62nd
- Greens in Regulation – 65th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Vaughn Taylor (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 63.0, GPFP: 50.40 Salary: $6,800)
Typically accurate off the tee, rock solid on the greens and happy in the wind, this is the kind of event that Vaughn Taylor should enjoy.
A lack of length won’t hamper him here, and neither does it at Sea Island nor Muirfield Village – Taylor regularly plays well at those layouts too.
The veteran hasn’t been active this term – T58 at the Fortinet Championship his sole outing, but he is another for whom a top-40 finish or better is distinctly possible this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 70th
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 71st
- SG: Around-the-Green – 96th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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