Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2022 American Express

2022 American Express Fantasy Sleeper Report

With a success rate of 20% in converting 54-hole leads to tournament victories, you could almost sense the unease in the loins of Russell Henley heading into the final round of the Sony Open.

Surprisingly, the conversion rate is only round 40% TOUR wide, and so the numbers were stacked against the 2013 Sony champion before a ball was even hit on Sunday.

And like all good sharks, Hideki Matsuyama sensed blood.

The Japanese ace wouldn’t sink his teeth into Henley until the back nine, however, as the leader belied his status as a poor closer by going on a birdie rampage on the front nine.

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But it wasn’t long before the old frailties emerged, and Matsuyama quietly began accumulating birdies to reel in his playing partner.

A missed putt on the 72nd green seemed to confirm Henley’s fate, and if he felt that the golfing gods were against him, he’d have been convinced of it when Matsuyama walloped a three-wood to within three feet on the first playoff hole.

The Japanese superstar has enjoyed a year in which he has been crowned Masters champion, won on home soil in front of his adoring faithful in Japan and now cleaned up at the Sony Open – for Henley, the hunt for a long-awaited win goes on.

Who knows….maybe it will come at The American Express this week? Henley loves Bermuda greens, which is what will be waiting for him at the event’s three host courses, and perhaps the laidback vibes of a pro-am contest are exactly what he needs to stumble over the line.

Mind you, he’ll have to see off a field that includes former champion Jon Rahm, last year’s runner-up Patrick Cantlay and a host of other talented stars including Patrick Reed, Tony Finau and Corey Conners. Throw into the mix defending champion Si-Woo Kim, plus ever-popular host Phil Mickelson, and a field of 156 will take some topping.

There’s the relentless pressure of making birdie after birdie too – Andrew Landry made 31 of them on his way to victory in 2020, which is the last time this event had the three-rotation of courses. PGA West’s Stadium and Nicklaus courses are short Par 72s that can be defeated, don’t let the fact that the former is designed by Pete Dye put you off, while La Quinta has yielded not once but twice to rounds of 59.

It should be an action-packed week then, albeit with lengthy amateur-laden rounds. But who will prevail? Let’s see if we can find a winner or two in our 2022 American Express sleeper report.

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2022 American Express Fantasy Sleeper Report

Adam Hadwin – 80/1 – With a trio of top-three finishes in this event and a round of 59 at La Quinta to his name, Adam Hadwin’s selection is something of a no-brainer.

These odds are only available then on account of a lack of form, and you’ll have to go back to the Shriners – where he finished T6 – to find the last time the Canadian excelled.

But top-10s at the Wyndham Championship and 3M Open suggest that there’s some belief in the locker, and perhaps Hadwin needs to return to a happy hunting ground to make good on that – the La Quinta trio of courses fitting the ball with his long-range approach prowess and Par 5 scoring ability.

Michael Thompson – 100/1 – With two rounds of 63 in the tank from Waialae, we can say with some confidence that Michael Thompson is feeling pretty good about his game right now.

He ranked inside the top-10 for SG: Tee-to-Green on his way to T5, and given that Thompson’s bread and butter is his smooth putting stroke there are plenty of reasons to feel optimistic as he returns to a beloved tournament.

Thompson has finished T5 and T9 in this event within his last three trips, and so all of the ingredients appear to be in place for another strong showing.

Lanto Griffin – 110/1 – Making his yearly bow this week, Lanto Griffin has plenty of good feelings to bring forward into 2022.

He signed off in 2021 with T6 and T7 finishes at the Shriners and ZOZO Championship respectively, while even in more mediocre outings there were positives – a pair of 68s at the Houston Open followed by book-ending rounds of 65 and 66 at the RSM Classic.

A trip to the West Coast will suit a player for whom much of his best work comes in this part of the world, and as we saw in his Houston Open triumph of 2019, Griffin is a player that can take care of business.

Hayden Buckley – 125/1 – Having impressed plenty on his PGA TOUR journey so far, Hayden Buckley can kick on and claim his first win amongst the big boys this week.

The 25-year-old has confirmed himself to be an excellent ball-striker that can make hay on the Par 5s – very useful this week, and in T4 finishes at the Country Club of Jackson (which we rate as something of a correlated course this week) and T8 at Shriners, Buckley served up plenty of notice of his skillset.

Back amongst it at the Sony Open, he played well in all departments on his way to a T12 finish, and with a win on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021 this is a guy with success not far behind in his rear-view mirror.

Troy Merritt – 140/1 – Here’s a slippery character that can go very well in these off-kilter events – as Merritt has proved in winning the Barbasol Championship and twice finishing runner-up in the Barracuda.

He headed into his Christmas break with a formline that read 22-15-28-MC-16, and in the latter of those at the RSM Classic, Merritt ranked inside the top-10 for ball striking – something of a rarity for a player better known for his putting abilities.

A poor record in this event notwithstanding, Merritt has plenty more upside than throwaway odds of 140/1 suggest.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the American Express here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.63%” bar_text=”2 out of 60 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent= “23.63%” bar_text=”13 out of 60 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”29.09%” bar_text=”16 out of 60 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=10.00%” bar_text=”1 out of 12 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”10.00%” bar_text=”1 out of 12 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”60.00%” bar_text=”33 out of 60 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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