Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Wells Fargo Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship
Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Preview
It’s actually pretty rare that 6/1 tournament ‘jollies’ actually do the business in golf events, but then Jon Rahm is no ordinary player.
You suspect that the Spaniard would happily beat his own grandmother in a match play contest out on the course, so he certainly would be giving his all at the Mexico Open.
Our first look at the Vidanta course at Nuevo Vallarta proved as expected – a bombs away test of distance matched by a strong week on the greens.
Such volatile conditions would suggest that the Mexico Open at Vidanta will be something of a free-for-all in years to come – make a note of that for the next few seasons, but Rahm found another gear as those around him fluffed their lines on a curiously birdie-free Sunday.
The world number two averaged an astonishing 340 yards off the tee and still found 69% of fairways, and his short game was in good enough order to wrap up a one-shot win – and a seventh PGA TOUR title – ahead of Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama and Brandon Wu.
There’s likely to be a ‘jollies and rags’ feel to the Wells Fargo Championship this week, with defending champion Rory McIlroy a considerable favorite with the sportsbooks to prevail.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week we had three of our main picks finish T15, but our horse pick Patrick Reed, who got off to a hot start, ended up fading with a 70-75 over the weekend after carding 67-66 in the first two rounds.
Another notable from our Tuesday Sleeper Report included Cameron Champ, who finished T6 after a tough-fought 70 on Sunday.
Wells Fargo Championship Field
The switch from Quail Hollow to TPC Potomac for one year only – and the slightly earlier-than-usual scheduling – means that the field is a little weaker than we have come to expect from this typically well-supported tournament.
McIlroy will take up his duties as defending champ, and he will be hoping to go back-to-back against a cast of rivals that includes Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer, Patrick Reed and Paul Casey.
The British and Irish trio of Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Seamus Power will be looking to add more silverware to their collection, as will Corey Conners, Max Homa, Webb Simpson and Marc Leishman.
Francesco Molinari demolished the field in the 2018 Quicken Loans National – the last time TPC Potomac hosted a TOUR event. He will be teeing it up hoping to rediscover that magic.
This Week’s Course Preview
Quail Hollow is a pretty beloved golf course on the PGA TOUR rotation, and so there’s no great surprise it’s been chosen to host the Presidents Cup later this year.
Those preparations mean we have a one-year switch to TPC Potomac, the Avenel Farm layout in Maryland. This will be the 21st time this occasional host has appeared on the PGA TOUR, although hosting those back-to-back renewals of the Quicken Loans National in 2017 and ’18 was the last time it was used.
Measuring 7,139 yards for its Par 70, TPC Potomac may be short but it is rarely overpowered, and if officials choose to leave the rough up it can make a huge difference – Molinari won with -21 here in 2018, but Kyle Stanley’s victory a year earlier came with a score of -7.
This undulating layout rolls its way through a variety of scenery that includes the Rock Run Stream Valley and various other creeks and water hazards, and there’s plenty of Scottish-inspired bunkers as well to keep the players honest off the tee and on approach to the green.
Ordinarily, the Bentgrass surfaces can run pretty quickly at TPC Potomac, although with some rain in the forecast – more on that in a moment – perhaps they will play slightly more sluggishly than normal.
Many of the green complexes are also elevated and contoured, and so finding the right portion of the greens is arguably just as important as having an exceptional week with the putter.
Weather Forecast for Potomac, MD
There’s enough uncertainty in the weather forecast for Potomac to keep daily fantasy players on their toes this week.
We’ll set the scene on Wednesday, where there is some rain around according to the early predictions. When, and in what quantity, remains to be seen.
We’ll have to wait and see if the rain manages to soften the course, but Thursday looks set to be a decent enough day – dry and sunny, with temperatures around 71˚F.
And then things could get a little freaky, if the forecast proves to be correct. There’s ‘80% chance of precipitation’ on Friday according to those predictions, and the suggestion is that the rain could hang around for some time.
Saturday could offer up rain showers too, and while Sunday looks to be better just look at those temperatures – 55˚F is few people’s idea of fun. The wind speeds could tip into double-figures MPH over the weekend too.
Last Year’s Results from the Wells Fargo Championship
McIlroy was the king of Quail Hollow in this event last year, ending an 18-month wait to get his hands on a PGA TOUR trophy.
Ironically, it was the scene of his first win back in 2010, and that comfort must have been a factor in a steady Sunday that saw him post consecutive birdies at the 14th and 15th holes to stretch away from the field.
Abraham Ancer was the chief chaser, posting a score of -5 during his final round, but even a bogey at the last could not stop McIlroy – a new father at the time – from securing the victory on Mother’s Day.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Wells Fargo Championship this Week
For us, these PGA TOUR events at largely unused courses are perfect for taking on casual players. They won’t do their homework and will rely on course form of very little significance, and so entering the low cost, high reward contests seems a fair way to play it this week.
- PGA $80k Birdie: At $3 a turn, this is a contest that will attract the interest of casual players this week – especially given the top prize of $7,500. Make your edge count here.
- PGA $400k Drive the Green: On a similar note, this $5 entry contest will be where many casual gamers also spend their bucks this week – there’s ample opportunities to skin them, not least the first prize payout of $50k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Wells Fargo Championship
TPC Potomac has been a golf course where hitting fairways and greens in regulation with regularity has been essential to the winner’s effort.
Curiously, both Stanley and Molinari – the last two champions here – averaged 304 yards off the tee, but the key is that found 71% and 75% of fairways respectively….ranking third and fourth for Driving Accuracy in the process.
Making GIR becomes much easier from the short stuff – Stanley and Molinari both ranked first for Greens in Regulation in their winning turns – and so clearly accurate ball-striking is the name of the game at TPC Potomac.
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect as the winning score given the 14-shot differential between the two victories already mentioned, although a soft TPC Potomac is likely to yield to birdies – more players will be hitting from the short grass, presumably, if the fairways lack ball-run.
That said, quite a few pros have spoken of how tough this layout can play, and it’s worth noting that even when Molinari won with -21, only seven players finished double digits under par and the cutline was +2, so don’t get too carried away by the numbers.
Quality, mentally-tough fairway and green finders are likely to hold the key to success this week….
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 67.4, GPFP: 53.89 Salary: $10,400)
Given that it was a ‘home game’ for Abraham Ancer at the Mexico Open last week, there will be plenty that cast him aside this time around due to his T42 effort there.
But he was excellent off the tee at Vidanta and putted well too, and in the third round ranked first for SG: Approach – these seemingly minor details do count for plenty.
Ancer’s natural game of hitting fairways before trying to fashion birdie opportunities on approach works fairly well for him, and it’s notable that his maiden PGA TOUR title came at TPC Southwind – another belt-and-braces test that is considered to be one of the harder non-major venues around.
He defeated Hideki Matsuyama and Sam Burns in a play-off there, and that shows the class of the player – could win number two come along this week?
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 6th
- Birdie Average – 41st
- Greens in Regulation – 72nd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Corey Conners (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 72.5, GPFP: 57.97 Salary: $10,100)
On his favored Bentgrass surfaces and at a layout where his ball striking pedigree will get full reward, Corey Conners is a must play this week….even ahead of Rory.
The Canadian hits fairways and GIR for fun, and while his putting stroke lacks the consistency of some, even a quick bit of research will show that Conners simply performs better at golf courses laid to Bentgrass than any other surface.
An excellent campaign has seen him finish inside the top-25 in 50% of his starts, but we’re definitely looking for him to kick on here and contend for a second PGA TOUR title. A formline of 12-6-35-26-11 suggests he’s knocking on the door of doing exactly that.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 3rd
- Total Driving – 13th
- Scoring Average – 23rd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Seamus Power (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 72.7, GPFP: 58.18 Salary: $8,300)
Another solid ball-striker with a sound record on Bentgrass greens, Seamus Power is another we want on-side this week – despite it creating something of a top-heavy draft.
The Irishman ranks 38th on TOUR for Driving Accuracy and 4th for Greens in Regulation this season, and so the basic building blocks for success at TPC Potomac are in place. Factor in a steady hand with the putter, and you can see why Power has made 11/17 cuts this term and served up four top-10s along the way.
Having missed three straight cuts, Power finished T33 at the PLAYERS Championship after something, evidently, clicked for him that week, and he followed that with T27 at The Masters. Those are significant steps towards form.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 4th
- SG: Putting – 38th
- Driving Accuracy – 38th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Martin Laird (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 57.3, GPFP: 64.72 Salary: $7,100)
Something of a ball-striking behemoth, Martin Laird’s results don’t reflect how well he has performed from tee to green.
Here’s a guy who ranks fifth on TOUR for Total Driving, 21st for SG: Approach and 36th for Greens in Regulation, and while those stats don’t always tell the full story it’s evident that Laird will have something of an edge on less technically proficient sorts this week.
Just three top-25s this term suggest Laird has had a horror-show of a season, but he will have taken encouragement from his T29 at the Texas Open in his last strokeplay start, and can look to build on that in favorable conditions this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 21st
- Driving Accuracy – 30th
- Greens in Regulation – 36th
Low-Tier Pick:
Tyler Duncan (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 56.0, GPFP: 44.80 Salary: $6,900)
Boasting the skillset needed for TPC Potomac, Tyler Duncan will be looking to build on his encouraging recent displays.
Averaging 293.8 yards off the tee this term, Duncan was always likely to be out-muscled at Vidanta last week – he ended up missing the cut, but otherwise an impressive couple of months saw returns of T12 at the RBC Heritage and T25 at the Valspar Championship, to name just two.
Rock solid on the shorter holes, Duncan’s usual weakness will become his strength at this Par 70 layout.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 5th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 49th
- Greens in Regulation – 60th
Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship
Mark Hubbard (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 72.6, GPFP: 66.04 Salary: $7,100)
During some recent downtime, we started having a look at some of the PGA TOUR’s more weird and wonderful stat categories.
One that we stumbled upon was the Scoring Average Before the Cut, and here we found Mark Hubbard to be amongst the absolute elite – ranking 23rd, he actually plays the first 36 holes better than the likes of Collin Morikawa and Daniel Berger.
Of course, that’s down to an array of factors – Hubbard tends to play in weak-field events and thus at easier courses, but even so it’s interesting to see how well he tends to play prior to the weekend.
It’s interesting from a DFS perspective as getting 6/6 past the cut this week could be very difficult, but if Hubbard plays to somewhere like his normal level – making the weekend in five of his last six starts – then we can rely upon him to take care of business.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 34th
- Approaches from 175-200 yards – 37th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 54th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship
Chase Seiffert (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 57.4, GPFP: 45.95 Salary: $6,500)
No frills, almost unfashionable golfers could be the key this week as we seek to get 6/6 players through to the weekend, and the unheralded Chase Seiffert may just aid you in that quest.
He’s made the weekend in 66% of his starts this term (6/9), and what’s more has delivered top-25 finishes in four of those….you couldn’t ask for much more from a low cost sleeper play.
A solid performer on Par 4 holes, Seiffert won’t grab the headlines this week but he could well be the guy that helps you to cash with a full house making it past the cut.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 18th
- Driving Accuracy – 88th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 90th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
Tourneys Played '21 -'22
Season Earnings YTD
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