Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 TOUR Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 TOUR Championship 

TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview

Better late than never. Patrick Cantlay’s first strokeplay win of the 2021-22 season – in its penultimate event at the BMW Championship – is enough to catapult him up to second place in the FedEx Cup standings, and he now has a real shot at becoming the first ever back-to-back champion in the competition’s history.

What a fillip that would be – as would the $18 million pay check for taking down the TOUR Championship this week, and Cantlay showed all of his trademark battling qualities to successfully defend his BMW title….albeit at a venue miles from where he won the 2021 renewal.

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The 30-year-old bested the field in our first look at Wilmington Country Club, a track that played extraordinarily long and left the field simply letting fly off the tee – Cantlay scarcely finding 50% of fairways in regulation all week.

But his approach game was in fine order, and he showed plenty of steel on the greens to close out a one-shot victory from Scott Stallings, who once again went under the radar to contend at the business end of a high-quality event.

So, our final 30 has been confirmed – the curtain falls on the 2021-22 season this week at the TOUR Championship.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Xander fought strong for us only to fade to a T3 finish; which wasn’t enough firepower even with Wise and Theegala both finishing T15.   

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Stallings was the true Sleeper we needed on our rosters this week and we would not rule him out in Atlanta. But more on that below.

TOUR Championship Field

Given the barrow-loads of cash up for grabs this week, it’s highly doubtful that anybody will withdraw from the field at East Lake.

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For the uninitiated, the season-long FedEx Cup standings are translated into a leaderboard with a staggered start – so, for example, Scottie Scheffler – the top-ranked player – will start the week at -10, Cantlay (number two) at -8, and so on.

Here’s how the leaderboard will look before a ball has been hit:

• -10 – Scottie Scheffler
• -8 – Patrick Cantlay
• -7 – Will Zalatoris
• -6 – Xander Schauffele
• -5 – Sam Burns
• -4 – Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im
• -3 – Jon Rahm, Scott Stallings, Justin Thomas, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick
• -2 – Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Joaquin Niemann, Viktor Hovland
• -1 – Collin Morikawa, Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Brian Harman
• E – K.H. Lee, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott, Aaron Wise

Our advice is to enjoy these players on your TV screens while you can. Media reports suggest that British Open champion Smith, former Masters winner Matsuyama and potentially some others in this field will be joining LIV Golf at the conclusion of this event on Sunday.

This Week’s Course Preview

Last week, we were outspoken in our belief that the PGA TOUR have got it completely wrong when it comes to the BMW Championship – they need to find a regular home for what is one of the most important tournaments on the schedule.

But there’s no mistakes made with East Lake Golf Club, which provides the final event of the campaign with a fitting home.

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It’s tough without being overly so, and crucially our winner this week will have to play well in all departments. The fairways are reasonably hard to find – although there’s an obvious advantage to staying out of rough which can reach up to three inches long, and then there’s the small matter of hitting approaches into small, contoured greens that are some of the hardest to hold on TOUR. 

It’s a long old stretch too, with Rees Jones adding plenty of distance to Donald Ross’ century-old overhaul to make this Par 70 now play in the region of 7,300 yards.

There’s not a huge amount of sand or water to flummox the players, but long Par 4s make East Lake a physical test as much as anything else – but a delicate touch is often needed on and around these super-slick Bermuda greens, which feature plenty of unique cambers and some sharply-mown edges and fronts. 

It’s the perfect location to sign off the 2021-22 season at.

Weather Forecast for Atlanta, GA

East Lake is located a few miles outside of Atlanta, but even so it might not be able to escape the rain likely to fall in the local area this week.

Fire up the weather forecast and you will see rain from Wednesday through Sunday, and depending on how much of the wet stuff falls East Lake could play treacherously long.

There’s an element of guesswork to trying to figure out when the rain will come – and when it will be strongest, but our guess (based on the precipitation % levels) is that Thursday and Friday will see the worst of the downpours.

At least it will be pretty warm – temperatures of around 84˚F are expected, and the predictions suggest the wind won’t get up much beyond the 7mph mark.

ATLANTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the TOUR Championship

After starting out as the top dog at -10 a year ago, Patrick Cantlay did just about enough to consolidate his lead into victory.

His final strokeplay score was -11, and his overall mark of -21 was one shot clear of the fast-charging Jon Rahm – birdie at the 72nd hole showcasing Cantlay’s incredible fortitude under pressure.

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Rahm had started the week at -6, and his strokeplay score of -14 was the best of the week alongside Kevin Na, who went from T25 on the starting leaderboard to solo third by the week’s end – taking his bonus earnings from around $550,000 to $5 million in the process!

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the TOUR Championship this Week

It’s a funny old week for DFS gamers. Rather than starting out with a level playing field, we have to essentially handicap the field based upon their starting scores – some will have an edge in calculating that, while others will falter. To that end, although the TOUR Championship is far from ideal as a fantasy vehicle, there are still some opportunities to be had. 

• PGA $1.2M Pitch and Putt: It’s the end of the season, and so we really ought to try and bow out in style. To that end, this $20 entry contest has a mammoth prize pool that includes a $300k bounty for the winner….why not give it a whirl?

• PGA $30k Albatross: We’ve written about this in the past, but for small field events the whales with huge bankrolls simply have an edge on those that have less of a budget to play with – they can draft multiple lineups that cover a wider percentage of outcomes. So, let’s give a single-entry contest a try instead….this $12 entry Albatross pays handsomely up and down the leaderboard, with $3k to the winner. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the TOUR Championship

Maybe it’s too easy to get over-analytical and strategic when drafting a lineup using the staggered leaderboard as a starting point.

The fantasy scoring is the same as normal, so you will pick up points based upon your roster’s low scoring, connecting back-to-back birdies and the like.

But there’s also the bonus points attached to finishing position, and so it goes without saying that you need to be picking a few from the upper echelons of the board.

A balanced approach is the way forward, and remember how the players lower down the starting leaderboard can multiply their earnings exponentially – Na’s 10x last season just one example of the motivation that grips those that might not realistically have a chance of winning the event.

If you’re interested in correlating courses, we quite like the whole Donald Ross vibe this week – he oversaw the design work at Sedgefield (home of the Wyndham Championship) and Detroit GC, host of the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

As far as long Par 70s played on tree-heavy layouts with small greens are concerned, consider Memorial Park – home of the 2020 and 2021 edition of the Houston Open – and Southern Hills, who welcomed the 2022 PGA Championship.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the TOUR Championship  

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the TOUR Championship 

Top Tier Pick #1

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 86.0, GPFP: 98.84 Salary: $12,300)

Let’s be honest: we don’t want to be drafting guys that are giving too many strokes away to the likes of Scheffler and Cantlay.

But Rahm laid the blueprint for what can (nearly) be achieved even with this staggered start, and of all the players within touching distance it’s perhaps Xander Schauffele that has the best chance of reeling the leaders in.

He simply loves it at East Lake, and has twice delivered the best strokeplay score here in the past five years – finishing inside the top-five in every trip.

We expected him to challenge at Wilmington CC last week and he did, in a fashion, before falling away to T3, but his ball-striking was in fine fettle and so there’s absolutely no harm in backing Schauffele to sign off a stellar 2021-22 in dramatic fashion.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 6th
• SG: Approach – 8th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 12th

Top Tier Pick #2

Tony Finau (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 75.4, GPFP: 97.27 Salary: $9,600)

Starting six shots adrift of Scheffler, it’s not impossible that Tony Finau could get into the frame come Sunday evening.

He’s certainly had the winning bug lately, taking down the 3M Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic – the latter at the Donald Ross designed Sedgefield – in recent times.

But neither of those could be described as a ‘big’ win, and Finau will be desperate to hoist the trophy in an event staffed by some of the best players in the world. His misfiring driver won’t be too badly penalized at East Lake, and instead his outstanding iron and wedge game can take center stage. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
• SG: Approach – 7th
• Scoring Average – 13th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Joaquin Niemann (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 71.6, GPFP: 77.37 Salary: $8,300)

Striking the ball beautifully at the moment, Joaquin Niemann will start the TOUR Championship on -2 – surely too far away to contend for the title.

However, we fully expect the Chilean to power his way up the leaderboard if he takes his recent form to East Lake. T13 at the FedEx St. Jude, Niemann ended up T8 at the BMW Championship last week in a performance once again powered by tee-to-green excellence.

With prior form on Donald Ross tracks, he looks a value proposition this week. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 9th
• Scoring Average – 17th
• SG: Approach – 19th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Jordan Spieth (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 69.5, GPFP: 73.03 Salary: $7,800)

It will have gone largely unnoticed in the grand scheme of things, but Jordan Spieth made five birdies in his last seven holes at the BMW Championship on Sunday.

So what, you might be thinking? Well, it will take low-scoring to haul in the leaders this week, and Spieth has the versatility to shoot the lights out and grind out and rescue par when necessary – both facets are vital at East Lake.

With previous at this layout, Spieth heads to the seasonal finale in better form than he has in years….he is one of the few players in the lower reaches of the staggered leaderboard to have the ability to make a major move, you fancy.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 19th
• Scoring Average – 32nd
• SG: Approach – 40th

Low-Tier Pick

J.T. Poston (Odds: 500/1, FPPG: 55.2, GPFP: 54.66 Salary: $5,100)

Setting off at level par, it would take a minor miracle for J.T. Poston to win the TOUR Championship.

But there’s no doubt he has the game to gain strokes on many of those above him, and come Sunday he could be nestled maybe halfway up the leaderboard if he performs as expected – that would be a huge bonus given his $5,100 salary.

A Bermuda specialist with a solid short game, Poston’s ball-striking has improved of late – hence his run to the TOUR Championship off the back of a formline that reads 35-20-21-11-MC-1-2. 

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 16th
• SG: Putting – 40th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 53rd

Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship

Billy Horschel (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 67.7, GPFP: 87.95 Salary: $6,900)

A former FedEx Cup champion, Billy Horschel can probably kiss goodbye to adding to that collection from his -1 starting score this time around.

Even so, he can bank plenty of points for his backers at a layout he clearly enjoys – Horschel has racked up four top-10s in five visits to East Lake, including victory here in 2014 before it became a handicap-start leaderboard.

His form has been flip-flopping of late, but an improvement on approach has created opportunities – normally, we would expect his excellent short game to thrive in such circumstances.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 14th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 20th
• Scoring Average – 23rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship

Adam Scott (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 72.9, GPFP: 87.42 Salary: $6,600)

Depending on who you listen to, this could be Adam Scott’s final PGA TOUR appearance before he sets sail for LIV Golf.

He’ll be keen to sign off on a high nonetheless, and improved form of late will at least serve him well as he battles it out for the Saudi blood money.

The Aussie has delivered back-to-back top-fives at the FedEx St. Jude and BMW Champion to battle his way to the TOUR Championship in unlikely fashion, and his ball-striking expertise could prove to be just the tonic at a venue where he finished T5 at the end of the 2019 edition.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 31st
• SG: Putting – 39th
• SG: Approach – 43rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”4.08%” bar_text=12 out of 294 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”19.72%” bar_text=”58 out of 294 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”33.33%” bar_text=98 out of 294 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”21.42%” bar_text=”9 out of 42 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”11.90%” bar_text=”5 out of 42 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”65.98″ bar_text=”194 out of 294 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram