Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open  

Waste Management Phoenix Open Fantasy Preview

So far 2023 has been the year of the stud on the PGA TOUR, with Jon Rahm, Max Homa and Si-Woo Kim into the winner’s circle.

Last week they were joined by a now eleven-time winner on the TOUR, although even Justin Rose himself seemed somewhat surprised to land the victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach.

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There was definitely a tear in the eye as the Brit sunk the winning putt that confirmed a three-shot triumph at the blustery Pebble Beach, and only he and those closest to him will know the depths he has plundered in a bid to recapture his best form.

It’s a decade since he won the U.S. Open and four years since his last PGA TOUR victory. Whether this means Rose is ‘back’ or not remains to be seen, but this was a victory that confirms the old adage that you should simply never give up trying.

Unless he takes up a late invitation, Rose will watch on with the rest of us at home what is undoubtedly one of the most entertaining weeks on the PGA TOUR: the Waste Management Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Our sleeper pick last week was Peter Malnati, and we thought our guy was going to take it!  

Ultimately, Rose came out ahead and Malnati, who finished T4 on the week.

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Waste Management Phoenix Open Field

The PGA TOUR have handed some events this season ‘elevated’ status, which means that the total prize pool played for will be a cool $20 million – normally, the Phoenix Open is less-than-half of that.

Lo and behold, a number of strangers to TPC Scottsdale will be making the trip to Arizona accordingly. Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa and U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick have all only played this event once in the past decade – whether that’s due to scheduling or the fact they didn’t fancy the rowdiness that this tournament tends to bring (more on that later).

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That quartet will be joined by those who seem to love the Phoenix Open. Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas are regular visitors, while defending champion Scottie Scheffler franked his third straight visit by getting his hands on the trophy.

All told, eight of the world’s top ten will tee it up in a field so stacked that the likes of Taylor Montgomery, who has finished in the top-15 in eight of his ten starts this term, needed a sponsor’s invite just to get in!

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s always fun to see the drama unfold at TPC Scottsdale, which boasts one of the most exciting final sets of holes in all of golf.

The seventeenth is the perfect case in point. A drivable Par 4 but with sand all over the place, this is risk-and-reward incarnate – last year, this played as the fourth easiest hole on the course and yet there were still 71 bogeys (the fourth most on the layout!).

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The Par 5 fifteenth offers similar risk-and-reward vibes for those daring to make it in two, while sixteen is the hole made famous by that huge amphitheatre which houses 20,000 rambunctious patrons – more so this year, given it will be Super Bowl Sunday too.

The eighteenth requires a good, firm drive across a huge water hazard, so what TPC Scottsdale lacks for features on its front nine are more than made up for on the back half of the course.

All told, TPC Scottsdale plays at 7,266 yards for its Par 71 (4x Par 3s, 3x Par 5s), although it’s worth noting that an altitude of around 1,500’ above sea level will see balls travel further than expected.

The large Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa and Rye – these should run as smooth as you like at around 12 on the stimp.

Weather Forecast for Scottsdale, AZ

TPC Scottsdale is a desert golf course in all senses of the word, and the weather forecast for the week ahead confirms as much.

It’s sunny and warm by day and chilly by night, so early starters will need to pack their thermals for conditions that might not get up much beyond 42˚F early on.

The good news is that the sun will be up and strong too, with the mercury hitting 77˚F by mid-afternoon (albeit Sunday looks set to be a little cooler).

The wind can often be a factor in desert golf, although early predictions suggest this will hover around the 10mph mark for the entirety of the tournament.

SCOTTSDALE WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Waste Management Phoenix Open

What a year it’s been for Scottie Scheffler!

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The 2022 Phoenix Open was the site of his maiden PGA TOUR title, and he followed up by winning three more – including The Masters – and ascending to top spot in the world rankings.

He showed plenty of fortitude in shading out Patrick Cantlay in a playoff here 12 months ago, finally getting the job done with birdie on the third extra hole, having trailed the leaders by nine shots heading into the weekend.

A Saturday 62 saw Scheffler shoot up the leaderboard, before a mediocre front nine on Sunday (three birdies, three bogeys) was followed by fireworks on the back straight. Scheffler took chances on the fifteenth and seventeenth and was rewarded with birdie at each, before another birdie look on 18 should have set up his first PGA TOUR win.

But he inexplicably shovelled a five-footer wide, allowing Cantlay – whose pedestrian back nine featured just one birdie – to force a playoff.

However, Scheffler would not be denied….

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Waste Management Phoenix Open this Week

Finally, a return to normality! The Phoenix Open brings, heavens above, a golf tournament played on just one course, and with years of data to fall back on we can have more confidence in our drafts than we have in recent weeks. 

So let’s take a look at some of the best DraftKings contests this week.

• PGA $200k Drive the Green: You’ll pay $5 per entry here, but that offers scope to build a handful of lineups to manage exposure and get more players on board. A jackpot od $25k would do very nicely.

• PGA $800k Pitch and Putt: If you have a deeper bankroll to play with, you can assemble a couple of different lineups and spread your risk in this $20 contest. There’s a handsome $200k to the winner, plus a stack of very useful prizes for those slightly further down the standings. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Four of the last five winners of the Phoenix Open are major champions, and the anomaly – Rickie Fowler – has finished inside the top-five of all four majors.

No coincidence, perhaps, but it’s proof that TPC Scottsdale rewards the longest, straightest ball strikers. You can draw a straight line between success here and at Augusta – home of golf’s ultimate tee-to-green test. 

Scheffler, Koepka, Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Chris DiMarco….all have won the Phoenix Open and finished either first or second at The Masters – and that’s just within the past 20 years.

Other interesting correlations include the desert golf played at the Shriners and American Express, while the Charles Schwab Challenge is an event that, like the Phoenix, rewards the purest hitters in the 100-125 and 150-175 yard categories – there’s stacks of crossover form between the two tournaments.

There’s no set structure for success at TPC Scottsdale. Webb Simpson hit stacks of fairways in his 2020 win, yet a year later Koepka barely found any. Scheffler was awesome off the tee, ranked just seventeenth for GIR but second for SG: Putting in his 2022 triumph. 

But each of the last five Phoenix winners – add 2018 champion Gary Woodland into the mix – are long, straight hitters, Simpson aside, and the quintet boasts quality through the bag on approach. Make some putts on these purest of greens and you stand an excellent chance of glory when backing the best at TPC Scottsdale.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Waste Management Phoenix Open  

Top Tier Pick #1

Jon Rahm (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 118.2, GPFP: 108.74 Salary: $11,000)

It would surely be fair to argue that, at this precise moment in time, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are the best golfers on the planet.

We’ve mentioned already about Rory’s reluctance to come to TPC Scottsdale for reasons only he knows, but you’ll find no such concern from Rahm, the Arizona State grad with a fine record in this event. 

A formline of 10-13-9-10-11-16-5 is evidence of how much the Spaniard wants to win on ‘home’ soil, and has he ever headed to the Phoenix Open in better form? Four wins in his last seven starts worldwide – it could have been five but for a rare poor final round at the Farmers Insurance Open – suggests not.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
• Scoring Average – 1st
• Greens in Regulation – 1st

Top Tier Pick #2

Sungjae Im (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 83.1, GPFP: 66.49 Salary: $9,200)

It was almost a dead-heat between Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama for this second top-tier berth.

The Japanese ace’s chances need little fanfare – he has won twice and finished runner-up at TPC Scottsdale since 2015, but for us Im is just a fraction more progressive right now.

The Korean has a top-10 in this event to his name, and has played well in all four of our correlating tournaments – Shriners, AmEx, Masters and Charles Schwab. Note too that, whilst it didn’t fit the bill as a correlating event as such, Fowler, Woodland and Koepka have all finished first or second at the Honda Classic….won by Im in 2020.

He was there or thereabouts at the Farmers last time out, finishing T4, and as we’ve written many times in the past Im is a multiple-time PGA TOUR winner in the making.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 16th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 22nd
• Scoring Average – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Si-Woo Kim (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 81.5, GPFP: 65.20 Salary: $7,800)

Here’s a nice price on a player that won on the PGA TOUR barely four weeks ago.

Although he has a poor record at TPC Scottsdale, Si-Woo Kim saved his best performance at the track for 2022, which suggests he’s finally getting the hang of the unique conditions.

The Korean has been striking the ball beautifully in recent weeks, with his win at the Sony Open followed by top-25 outings at the American Express and Farmers Insurance Open.

Strong showings at the American Express, Shriners and even Augusta (T12 in the 2021 Masters) set the scene that Si-Woo, rowdy crowds aside, really should enjoy the set-up at TPC Scottsdale more than he has done in the past.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 11th
• Scoring Average – 13th
• Total Driving – 23rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Brian Harman (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 93.7, GPFP: 81.53 Salary: $7,400)

There have been times this season where Brian Harman has been priced at 30/1 with the sportsbooks, so an easing out to three times that price is good news for DFS gamers.

The left-hander is super consistent, and his only missed cut this season came at the American Express last time out – Harman missed the Sunday despite shooting -8, so there’s no disgrace there.

He’s been playing good golf for six months or more now, and with a fine record at TPC Scottsdale (just one missed cut in nine attempts) Harman should be a reliable points-getter this week.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 125-150 yards – 5th
• Scoring Average – 15th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 29th

Low-Tier Pick

Chris Kirk (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 73.1, GPFP: 60.64 Salary: $7,300)

Chris Kirk delivered a ball-striking performance from the gods at the American Express, and in two Shotlink measured rounds there he gained more than three strokes on the field either off-the-tee or on approach.

Another solid turn with the flat stick took Kirk to T3, and that was his second consecutive third-place finish having hit the podium at the Sony Open as well.

Although Kirk’s record at TPC Scottsdale is a mixed bag, he does have T11 and T14 finishes to his name at the layout. It’s hard to remember a time when he has travelled to Arizona in as good form as he’s in right now.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 39th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 40th
• SG: Putting – 49th

Sleeper Pick for the Waste Management Phoenix Open

Brendan Steele (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 57.9, GPFP: 55.62 Salary: $7,200)

Fact fans will rejoice in knowing that in his last 22 PGA TOUR starts, Brendan Steele has gained strokes on the field in 21 of them off the tee, and in 15 of the same on approach.

That ultimately counts for very little when your short game is as poor as Steele’s is, however there’s some caveats for the Californian to hold onto this week.

Lately, his putting has been better (i.e. less terrible), and in ten trips to TPC Scottsdale he’s recorded three top-10 finishes – that’s a very healthy strike rate indeed, and suggests he finds a little something extra on these greens.

There’s a chance Steele will shovel putts wide and miss the cut, but one thing that is for sure is that you won’t often get sleeper plays as technically outstanding as Steele is from tee-to-green.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 31st
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 32nd
• Scoring Average – 69th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Waste Management Phoenix Open

Nate Lashley (Odds: 275/1, FPPG: 56.1, GPFP: 44.90 Salary: $6,500)

A solid record at TPC Scottsdale (MC-17-3) from Nate Lashley is confirmation that Arizona State grads seem to love this event more than any other.

It was only a few weeks ago that Lashley finished T7 at the Sony Open, so there’s decent form in the rear view mirror, and his approach play has improved since the Christmas break enough to suggest that work on the range is paying off.

This is a sleeper play in all senses of the word, but two top-20s in three trips to TPC Scottsdale at least provides some confidence.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 17th
• Driving Accuracy – 73rd
• SG: Putting – 87th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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