Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Sleeper Report

Seven years, nine months, two days.

That’s a long time in anybody’s book, but when you’re trying to end a hoodoo without a PGA TOUR win, it must feel like a lifetime.

In fairness to Chris Kirk, he’s been through the mill in that time with personal problems away from golf, but his return to the winner’s circle at the Honda Classic on Sunday is proof that good players stand the test of time.

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His magic moment might not have come had Eric Cole, the 34-year-old rookie looking for his own incredible storyline, made birdie at the 72nd hole. He didn’t, and Kirk survived blitzing his approach shot into the water at that final hole. In the subsequent playoff, he wouldn’t make the same mistake twice….

Kirk takes his place amongst the 13 winners on TOUR this season, and every single one of them will be in the field for this week’s outing in Florida: the Arnold Palmer Invitational at ‘The King’s’ own place, Bay Hill Country Club, in Orlando.

This is one of the most devilish layouts on the main PGA TOUR rotation, and in the past three years scores of -5 (Scottie Scheffler, 2022) and -4 (Tyrell Hatton, 2020) have been enough to win here. In-between, Bryson DeChambeau did Bryson things, but on the whole this is as tough as it gets outside of the majors.

It’s a tough driving course, with thick tree-lines and swinging doglegs rendering even the smoothest of big stick hitters powerless to cling on to the fairways. The key at Bay Hill is to miss in all the right places, as the last three champions here have all done.

In theory, the large Bermuda greens provide ample room for approach shots, but blitzkrieg winds – the forecast has predicted a 22mph breeze on Friday, perhaps even stronger with gusts – allied to 84 bunkers and a number of genuinely in-play water hazards, ensures that GIR counts are pretty low at Bay Hill.

By way of context, Scheffler, Bryson and Hatton all ranked top-15 for GIR, but even they averaged around 62% between them. Therefore, a scrambling game is vital as is comfort on slick Bermuda greens.

So if you hadn’t guessed, all departments of a player’s game are tested at Bay Hill, and that’s why this tournament is so much fun to watch.

The great and the good haven’t always fancied the job here given the complexity, but now that the Arnie P has ‘elevated’ status, it means that we have a stacked field to work with this week. As mentioned in the past, that’s both a blessing and a curse for longshot backers – these tournaments are generally won by the best in the business, given the huge purse and prestige on offer.

Mind you, we can back some quality players at juicy prices this week, and in that spirit here’s our sleeper shortlist for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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Tom Kim – 50/1 – When winning here in 2020, Tyrrell Hatton proved you didn’t need to always be long off the tee to tame Bay Hill – he averaged just 287 yards off the peg all week long.

Instead, being able to flight your ball down and keep it under control are key, and that’s a skill that Tom Kim has showcased nicely in his fledgling PGA TOUR career.

More importantly still, accuracy off the tee provides the Korean with the platform to show off his outstanding approach game – this is a guy with class throughout his bag.

A slight regression of late has seen his odds fall into longshot status, but this impressive young star is anything but – he’s gained strokes on the field on approach in his last 14 (that’s not a typo) measured PGA TOUR starts.

Shane Lowry – 55/1 – What a curious week it was for Shane Lowry at PGA National.

The Irishman ranked first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at the Honda Classic, powered by an exceptional show of ball-striking.

But his putting….well, the less said about that the better.

He certainly has a firm foundation on which to build, however, and given that many of his best putting performances Stateside have come on Bermuda greens we can have confidence that Lowry will turn things around prior to the start of the tournament. 

Keith Mitchell – 55/1 – Big Keith has a T5 and T6 finish to his name at Bay Hill, and we’re not overly surprised given how well his game sets up for this test.

Long off the tee and with a reliable mid to long-range approach game, Mitchell has the tools to get the ball to the greens in decent fashion at Arnie’s place.

Strong showings at PGA National, TPC Southwind and Riviera confirm his suitability for this sort of assignment, and with plenty of form in the bag – including recent top-fives at the Genesis and Pebble Beach – Mitchell could be one to watch this week.

Hideki Matsuyama – 60/1 – There’s long been a feeling that quality operators awaken from their stasis at the most difficult of golf courses.

Hideki Matsuyama has a decent record at Bay Hill – okay, there’s only one top-10 on his resumé, but he hasn’t missed the cut in eight trips and has three finishes of T21 or better to his credit.

His ball-striking remains as strong as ever, and a missed cut at the Genesis can be attributed to losing 1.40 strokes to the field on the sluggish Poa Annua greens – the switch to faster Bermuda surfaces will please him no end.

Corey Conners – 66/1 – A T12 finish at the Sony Open perhaps should have acted as the springboard for Corey Conners to kick on in 2023.

That said, the Canadian is not someone that has always convinced on Poa Annua, so now the West Coast Swing is done he can start to look forward to more suitable conditions.

After two missed cuts in his first looks at Bay Hill, Conners has since gone 11-3. And there’s no mystery why – his long-range approach play is exceptional. 

Strong performances at the Masters, British Open and even St Jude Championship provide hope that Conners can complete a hat-trick of quality outings in Orlando.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Arnold Palmer Invitational here.

Sleeper Report Predictions This Season (2022-2023)

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