Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational  

Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Preview

Fate is often a fickle mistress in sport, and yet for Chris Kirk it played a helping hand in him ending a near eight-year wait for a PGA TOUR title at the Honda Classic.

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Our top-tier pick could have won the event in regulation time had he not dunked his approach shot to the 72nd hole in the water, and after breathing a sigh of relief after playing partner Eric Cole failed to make birdie at the Par 5 last that would have won him a maiden title, it was back off up to the 18th tee for a playoff.

This time, Kirk hit his tee shot into the rough and behind a tree – preventing him from attacking the green in two. That was a shot that ultimately cost him the trophy on the final hole, so this time he had no choice but to lay up.

Meanwhile, Cole did go for the green in two and overhit the mark, landing in a bunker behind the dancefloor. And when Kirk stiffed an exquisite approach to about 10 inches from the hole, he had a tap-in birdie.

Cole managed to muscle his bunker shot to about ten-feet, but a missed putt gave handed Kirk an emotional victory – in 2019, he almost gave up the sport altogether as he battled depression and alcoholism.

PGA National played easier than normal thanks to benign winds, but as the action remains in Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a high-class field cannot expect the same luxuries from ‘The King’s’ place.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

BOOM! Kirk was our guy last week and man did he CASH IN!

In case you missed it, last week our Top Pick to win the Honda Classic was Chris Kirk. A guy who hasn’t won in 179 starts (8 years). 

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Here’s what we said about Kirk last week:

It will take a brave DFS gamer to arm themselves with the chalk picks this week.

Perhaps spreading our salary cap across our picks is the smarter way to play it, and Chris Kirk will be looking to frank a solid 2022 with even better form this year.

He delivered back-to-back third place finishes in January, and has performed well at loosely-correlating events like the Arnold Palmer and Sony Open. A top-10 at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational continues to pique our interest.

An accurate driver and precise iron player, Kirk has the skillset to prevail in a test of precision and course management.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Field

It’s always a high-class field that meets at Bay Hill for the Arnie P, and 2023 – with it’s newly-minted elevated status – is no different.

By our count, 44 of the world’s top-50 players will make the trip to Orlando – including all 13 winners of PGA TOUR events so far this term.

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Rahm, McIlroy, Scheffler, Homa, Cantlay, Schauffele, Thomas, Morikawa, Finau….you get the picture. This is an elite field at an elite golf course.

In addition to all the big guns you’d expect, invitations have been handed to the likes of Pierceson Coody, the youngster who looked in good order at PGA National, alongside a handful of others that performed well in Palm Beach like Justin Suh and former major champion Zach Johnson.

This Week’s Course Preview

Arnold Palmer is one of the most treasured golfers ever to pick up a club, and outside of the courses on the major rotation his Bay Hill Country Club design is also amongst the finest layouts around.

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The doglegging fairways require accurate shot-shaping, while the large Bermuda greens are well-protected by water and sand – some 80+ bunkers line the property.

Just four of the course’s holes averaged under par in 2022 – that was the quartet of Par 5s, unsurprisingly, with the 511-yard sixteenth the only ‘gimme’ hole on the premises.

Three of the four Par 3s measure more than 215 yards, so there’s plenty of emphasis on long-iron play this week, while the hardest hole on the course last year – the 438-yard, Par 4 eleventh – had a birdie-to-bogey ratio of about 1:3.

And before you celebrate any victory, note that the 18th hole was the second hardest on the course in 2022, with 150 bogeys or worse compared to 39 birdies. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over at Arnie’s place!

Weather Forecast for Orlando, FL

If it’s not battened down, it might end up in the Atlantic Ocean given the wind forecast for Orlando this week.

Thursday’s breeze is expected to be around 11mph, according to the early predictions, and then all hell breaks loose on Friday with a 22 mph zephyr expected. Although slightly calmer over the weekend, flags will still be rippling to some effect.

It’s likely to be hot, sunny and cloudy throughout, as you’d expect in Florida at this time of year, with temperatures settling at around 87˚F (albeit slightly cooler on Sunday).

ORLANDO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bay Hill showed its teeth last year in what has to be one of the most entertaining – if you’re a masochist – finishes to a PGA TOUR event in some time.

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Just four players went under par on the Sunday as the wind got up and some devilish pin placements left many befuddled – the normally-placid Rory McIlroy even snapped a wedge in two as he lost his cool.

You’d be forgiven for forgetting a name or two off the list of players that found themselves within a shot or two of the lead – Gary Woodland, Chris Kirk, Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland and Talor Gooch are just some that spring to mind, and yet there was one man who kept his nerve while all else lost theirs.

Scottie Scheffler had won his maiden PGA TOUR title just a few weeks prior at the Phoenix Open, and he parlayed that form with a strong Sunday showing at Bay Hill to lift the trophy and slip into the famous red cardigan.

A level-par 72 was enough to see Scheffler home in the final round, with a peerless, bogey-free back nine that culminated in a clutch two-putt from 70ft to continue his fine form and continue on his march to world number one status. 

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this Week

If it’s tough for the players, spare a thought for DFS gamers trying to navigate their way through one of the most difficult weeks on TOUR!

Thankfully, we have a good idea of what it takes to succeed at Bay Hill, and so we can build our lineups accordingly.

• PGA $1M Pitch & Putt: Because there’s variance at work at Bay Hill given the complexity of the conditions and the wind, there’s a chance to win big in the $1 million contest this week if you fall on the right side of the carnage. At $20 per stake, it will be fun finding out. 

• PGA $15k Mulligan: This is the kind of week where you might want to spread your risk with a couple of different lineup builds, and so this $8 entry contest – with a three team maximum per player – is an ideal starting point. The winner trousers $1,500.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

If you read our preview of the Honda Classic last week then you will already hold some of the aces of what to expect in the Arnold Palmer this week.

Bay Hill is probably a harder driving course than PGA National, with fairways missed with regularity. Missing in the right areas is key – none of the last three winners of this event (Scheffler, Bryson and Tyrrell Hatton) ranked top-20 for Driving Accuracy.

Quality on approach, particularly in the longer-ranges between 150 and 225 yards, is of paramount importance, and with the wind up we’d expect plenty of greens to be missed – so scrambling is of equal importance.

Generally speaking, putting hasn’t been a huge difference-maker, as the SG: Putting ranks of Scheffler (17th) and Bryson (24th) attest. But last year, five of the top-10 on the leaderboard ranked inside the top-10 for SG: P, so some success on fast Bermuda surfaces is of relevance.

If you’re looking for correlating courses, Augusta and Innisbrook (Valspar Championship) feature plenty of shot-shaping and testing approach shots, while there’s a similar feel to TPC Southwind (St Jude Championship) and Riviera (Genesis Invitational).

And how’s this for a stat: of the last nine Arnold Palmer Invitational winners dating back to 2012, only one (the ever-curious Matt Every) has failed to record a top-10 finish at the British Open.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational  

Top Tier Pick #1

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 101.0, Salary: $10,900)

How not to eat Jon Rahm chalk this week….

The Spaniard is in the form of his life, is arguably the best player on the planet right now and gained nearly three strokes on the field with his ball-striking on debut here last year. It’s an alarming combination….

But there’s variance to be had at a venue as wind affected as Bay Hill, and Scottie Scheffler showed his chops here when winning the title in tough conditions 12 months ago.

He’s still playing outstanding golf too. Scheffler has finished no worse than T12 in his last seven starts, and showed his appetite for defending titles when recapturing the Phoenix Open a matter of weeks ago.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 2nd
• Scoring Average – 3rd
• SG: Approach – 14th

Top Tier Pick #2

Tony Finau (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 89.4, Salary: $9,300)

Given how strong his ball-striking has been of late, we simply have to give Tony Finau another try this week in a field full of possibilities at this price-point.

Yes, his inconsistency on the greens is a concern, but – historically at least – fast Bermuda surfaces are where he’s dredged up his best efforts with the flat stick in hand. Let’s hope that rule applies this week too.

Finau has shown his teeth as the conditions have bared there’s at Augusta, TPC Southwind and Riviera in the past, and he also finished solo third at the British Open in 2019.

A three-time winner since July, Finau will want to prove he can beat the best of the best.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 5th
• Scoring Average – 6th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 25th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Cameron Young (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 83.0, Salary: $8,700)

Now that talk of a LIV Golf move has been put to bed, Cameron Young can crack on with being the outstanding young talent that he is.

Perhaps going somewhat under the radar this week given the depth of the field and a relative lack of form, Young still has all the ingredients for success at Bay Hill, including plenty of length off the tee and a classy approach game.

As with Finau, missed putts have been creeping into his game since the start of the year, but knowing he finished T13 here on debut in 2022 suggests that Young found something of an affinity with the slick Bermuda greens.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 6th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 18th
• SG: Approach – 24th 

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 79.1, Salary: $7,700)

It seemed as though every man and his dog had backed Rickie Fowler to prevail at the Genesis Invitational the other week.

A T20 finish was perhaps not as high as many would like, but it was another step in the right direction for Rickie given that his ball-striking was once again on point.

He will surely relish a return to Bay Hill now that he’s back in the groove. This is a layout where Fowler has finished T3 and cracked the top-20 on three other occasions, and anything like a repeat of that form will be most welcome this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 7th
• Total Driving – 15th
• Scoring Average – 33rd

Low-Tier Pick

Justin Suh (Odds: 220/1, FPPG: 56.8, Salary: $6,900)

After a tough start to life on the PGA TOUR, the penny has well and truly dropped for Justin Suh.

He only recorded one top-40 finish in each of his first nine starts at the top table, but since then he’s franked T20 at the Farmers Insurance Open with a T5 turn at the Honda Classic.

Suh gained 2.40 strokes on the field with his ball-striking amidst an unusually quiet week with the putter – he’d gained more than a stroke on the field with the flat stick in his three previous measured starts.

It’s all about connecting the dots for Suh now, and while Bay Hill isn’t the ideal proving ground, this is a guy playing much better than a $6,900 salary suggests.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 45th
• SG: Putting – 63rd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 65th

Sleeper Pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Gary Woodland (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 55.2, Salary: $7,400)

Having been striking the ball beautifully for a while now, Gary Woodland finally got his reward with a T9 finish at the Genesis Invitational last time out.

He gained +3.50 strokes on the field with his ball-striking, and while that raises the age-old concerns about his short game, Woodland putted better (i.e. less bad) at Riviera.

And for what it’s worth, he also ranked sixth for SG: Putting at Bay Hill 12 months ago. Perhaps these greens bring out the very best in him….

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 11th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 26th
• Greens in Regulation – 51st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Robby Shelton (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 70.6, Salary: $6,600)

If you’re looking for a sleeper pick that can make a mockery of their lowly salary, Robby Shelton could well be your man.

All of his good – four finishes of T21 or better in his last six starts – comes off the back of rock-solid second shot play, and while that does raise concerns about his putting there’s no doubt that there’s an edge to be had with ball-striking at Bay Hill. 

Besides, positive thinkers will say that if he can make some putts, Shelton could well exceed expectations this week. You would think that an Alabaman will feel right at home on slick Bermuda greens….

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 20th
• SG: Approach – 26th
• Scoring Average – 53rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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