Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Valspar Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Valspar Championship  

Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview

Another week, another brilliantly bonkers performance from Scottie Scheffler.

The new world number one (again) torched the field at the PLAYERS Championship, adding more than double the Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green tally of the vast majority of the field.

Scheffler gained just +0.02 putting….and still won by five shots!

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It’s a sixth PGA TOUR title in barely a year; a tally which now includes the Masters and the PLAYERS. Not bad for a guy that hasn’t even won once as recently as February 2022.

A Saturday 65 broke the back of things at TPC Sawgrass, and while he had a triple-bogey from playing partner Min Woo Lee to be thankful for come Sunday, in truth it never really seemed likely that Scheffler – priced at -210 with the sportsbooks heading into the final round – would relinquish yet another trophy.

He did not, in fact he seemed to get stronger as the finishing line approached – always the sign of a worthy champion.

It’s the last week of the Florida Swing next time out as the action heads to Palm Harbor for the Valspar Championship.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Boom, another winner!   

THE PLAYERS marks our four winner picked this season and we’re not even into April yet. 

Scottie came out firing and we had a strong feeling about it.  Here’s what we thought about Scottie heading into the PLAYERS in case you missed it:

Generally, the key is to hit your ball as close as possible to the flag despite the complexities of Pete Dye’s flagship design – and recover well when you do (inevitably) miss the green.

That’s why there’s a preference for Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy over Jon Rahm this week – the Spaniard endangering the lives of the good people of Orlando with some of his drives last week, and McIlroy’s slightly cooler irons make Scheffler the preferred play.

His ball-striking remains as majestic now as it has at any point during his golden year, and he continues to outperform everyone in that regard – it’s just a little heat with the flat stick, as seen as the Phoenix Open, that separates him from victory.

The naysayers will point at a missed cut at Sawgrass last year as a reason for negativity about Scheffler’s chances, but remember that was a fairly atypical year as far as the conditions were concerned. And McIlroy, Day and Fowler had all missed the cut at the PLAYERS the year prior to them lifting the trophy.

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Valspar Championship Field

Did you know that there’s five different guys on the PGA TOUR trying to complete a three-peat this season? We’ll let you work out who those are, but we’ll give you the first one: Sam Burns is looking to win for a third consecutive year at Innisbrook.

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He’ll be joined on the Copperhead Course by old buddies Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick and Zozo Championship winner Keegan Bradley.

The likes of Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood and Brian Harman are making the short trip from Sawgrass, while former Valspar champions Adam Hadwin and Kevin Streelman will be looking to join Bruns and Paul Casey in the multiple winners club at Innisbrook.

A trio of young guns in Justin Suh, who has scored two top-10s in his last three outings in strong-field events, Pierceson Coody and Ludvig Aberg will be hoping to continue their impressive upward trajectory.

This Week’s Course Preview

With doglegging fairways, mature tree-lines, sand and water aplenty, the Copperhead Course bears an uncanny resemblance to those that have come on the Florida Swing before it.

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Augusta is another that is mentioned in passing, so already you have an idea of how Copperhead looks but also in how difficult it plays.

The rough is generally left up and the Bermuda greens shaved to the point that they run at faster than 12 on the stimp, so it’s another week where quality ball-striking and/or a reliable recovery game will come to the fore.

The reason for that is a combination of tree-lined, doglegging fairways, typically thick rough (and the imposition of 70+ bunkers and water in play on nine holes) and small, slick Bermuda greens.

The Copperhead Course has some unusual routing too, with four Par 5s and five Par 3s within its Par 71. The former play as easy as it gets on the PGA TOUR and the latter, well, don’t. Four of the shorter holes averaged over par last year, with the eighth – which measures 235 yards – giving off a particularly knee-knocking vibe.

The three closing holes have been assigned the moniker ‘Snake Pit’, and while the seventeenth lacked bite in 2022, there’s no doubt that 16 and 18 showed their teeth. They were the second and fourth hardest holes on the real estate respectively, so any leader heading down the stretch had better not rest on their laurels.

Weather Forecast for Tampa, FL

It could be a tournament of two halves according to the early weather forecast.

There’s little to worry about on Thursday and Friday, with temperatures as high as 79˚F as the players bask in strong sunshine. Note that the wind could pick up to 16mph on Friday.

And that’s where things could all change, with rain, thunderstorms and lower temperatures (66 ˚F) all expected over the weekend. Keep an eye on the hour-by-hour forecast for more accurate details.

TAMPA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Valspar Championship

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Sam Burns successfully defended his Valspar Championship in 2022, but he had a slice of luck along the way.

He and Davis Riley were tied on -17 at the end of 72 holes, with the first playoff hole ending in stalemate.

On the replayed 18th, they both hit their approaches to pretty much the same place – Burns’ catching the fringe of the green and Riley’s agonizingly sliding into the rough. 

Presented with an awkward lie, Riley couldn’t muster much but Burns still had work to do – which he did by draining a long-range putt from the fringe to take his trophy back home with him once more.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valspar Championship this Week

This isn’t the strongest field in the world playing at a course that has shown its teeth in the past, so some discretion is advised this week. That said, players that go the extra mile tend to thrive in these DFS conditions, so let’s see if we can use our edge to good effect.

• PGA $350k Drive the Green: To feel truly confident in your drafts this week, you’ll probably need a couple of lineup rotations to spread the risk of a weak field event. For $5 a go, we still get a chance to play for a $50k top prize in this contest.

• PGA $30k Caddie: Another way to try and maximize your return this week is to play a single-entry contest – mitigating the advantages of the big-spending whales. For just $5, you get a shot at a $3,000 top prize here.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

From Bay Hill to Sawgrass, there’s a nice crossover on the Florida Swing, and that continues onto the Valspar Championship.

These are events all played out in similar conditions, with tight doglegging fairways, hazards aplenty and greens that can be tough to hold due to their small size or the nature of the wind.

To the naked eye, the thick tree-lines and undulations bring to mind Augusta too, so already fans of correlating courses have a database to parse through.

As far as course fit is concerned, Burns and Casey have driven the ball superbly well in their recent wins at the Copperhead Course. Burns was a little more wayward last year, but recovered with some fine approach play and recovery golf in conditions that were perhaps easier than the norm here.

There’s the double-hander of needing to avoid bogeys on the Par 3s and make birdies on the Par 5s, so in both cases quality approach play in the 175-225 yardage is vital, as is the ability to chip and scramble when greens are inevitably missed – a GIR count of just 65-70% is not uncommon for even those at the top end of the leaderboard.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valspar Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship  

Top Tier Pick #1

Justin Thomas (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 82.3, Salary: $10,900)

It’s a week in which not many in the field have covered themselves in glory of late, and of them it’s perhaps Justin Thomas that is slightly ahead of the curve.

He continues to put up impressive ball-striking data before being let down by a cold putter, and while it would be wrong to suggest that JT is currently on Scheffler’s level, it’s true that only a minor improvement on the greens could propel him back to the business end of tournaments.

Thomas has a fair enough record at Innisbrook (3-13-MC-18-10) and has done the business at Sawgrass, Augusta and other correlating venues such as Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village (long irons into small greens), so hopefully we’re just a putting improvement away from another JT victory on the PGA TOUR.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 3rd
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 9th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th

Top Tier Pick #2

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 69.4, Salary: $9,400)

Having finished second here in 2021, the hope is that Keegan Bradley will be able to find a way to get around his lack of a short game.

His approach play throughout the yardages continues to impress, he remains an outstanding driver of the ball and his putting stroke, while inconsistent, is typically at its best on faster Bermuda surfaces.

A formline of MC-10-MC-20-2 of late suggests Keegan is in feast-or-famine mode, but in a relatively weak field it’s hard to overlook just how brilliant his approach play is right now.

Key Stats:

• Par 3 Scoring Average – 16th
• SG: Approach – 39th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 41st

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Stephan Jaeger (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 67.4, Salary: $7,800)

Having shown up a few times on our ball-striking data tracker of late and with a penchant for slick Bermuda greens, we’re just waiting for Stephan Jaeger to put it all together at once.

The German has gained strokes on the field in each of his last three starts at the Genesis, Honda Classic and PLAYERS, and that’s no mean feat given the quality of field in each – he put up green numbers in two of those three as well.

The owner of a solid short recovery game, Jaeger – like a few this week, in truth – seeks the missing piece of the jigsaw on the greens. Intriguingly, he ranked 15th for SG: Putting in the final round at Sawgrass, so has the penny dropped?

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 39th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 42nd
• Scrambling – 42nd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Eric Cole (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 59.5, Salary: $7,300)

Eric Cole is riding a heater right now, but he goes again in conditions that he has shown a fondness for of late.

The 37-year-old rookie has taken a circuitous route to the top of golf, but he’s making it count right now with a second-place finish at the Honda Classic and an impressive top-30 at the PLAYERS following a T15 at Pebble Beach earlier in the season.

Cole’s success is built on a firm foundation of quality approach play, and he’s even started gain strokes off-the-tee as well – unthinkable just a few weeks ago. His success on Bermuda greens lately suggests he has the full package to work with this week.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 26th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 42nd
• SG: Approach – 64th

Low-Tier Pick

Trey Mullinax (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 51.3, Salary: $7,200)

Barely a week after finishing in the top-10 at Bay Hill, Trey Mullinax has been jettisoned to the bargain bin after a below-par missed cut at Sawgrass.

But this is a guy that has been playing generally good stuff in the past few months, and he has a habit of reaching the upper pages of the leaderboard when conditions suit.

As they just might at Innisbrook. Having finished T8 here in the past, Mullinax’s length is a valuable weapon both off the tee and on approach at this stretch. If he recaptures his form from the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we might just have a bargain on our hands.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 15th
• Rough Proximity – 80th
• Approaches from > 200 yards – 86th

Sleeper Pick for the Valspar Championship

David Lingmerth (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.7, Salary: $7,300)

You sense he’d be a sleeper pick in any given week, but after banking top-10s at the PLAYERS and the Hondas Classic you suspect that David Lingmerth ought to be shown more respect.

It’s not as if the Swede simply putted his way to success – he gained strokes on the field on approach in both of those, as he has in his last four outings on the PGA TOUR.

Lingmerth delivered as much better putting show at Sawgrass too, so his game is certainly trending in the right direction.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 48th
• SG: Approach – 73rd
• SG: Putting – 80th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Valspar Championship

Dylan Wu (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 61.4, Salary: $6,800)

There’s plenty of positivity in Dylan Wu’s game right now, so it seems somewhat odd that he’s available at this price point.

T10 at the Honda Classic and T35 at the PLAYERS are impressive results – particularly the latter, given the strength of field, so it’s bizarre that we can pick up such a bargain for our drafts this week.

No matter. This is a player whose game is built on solid foundations of reliable ball-striking, and so we’re delighted to take advantage of the salary-makers’ oversight.

Key Stats:

• Rough Proximity – 10th
• Greens in Regulation – 10th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 55th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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