Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2023 Valspar Championship

2023 Valspar Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

For a while there, it looked as though long-odds bettors might have something to celebrate as outsider Min Woo Lee bit at Scottie Scheffler’s heels at the PLAYERS Championship.

Very little separated them heading into the final round, but as so often happens on a PGA TOUR Sunday experience player a part – Scheffler has bags of it now despite being a relatively young man, while Lee is still making his way in the sport.

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So perhaps we shouldn’t have been surprised that Min Woo fell away and Scheffler accelerated to the finishing line, continuing the long-stretch of short odds players winning.

But we might have good news on that front….

The Valspar Championship, this week’s final fling on the Florida Swing, is played at a tricky golf course (Copperhead at Innisbrook) and has a pretty weak field to boot, with even those at the head of the betting market having questions to answer.

Sam Burns was priced at 75/1 with the bookmakers when he won his first title here in 2021, while the likes of Adam Hadwin (80/1) and Kevin Streelman (200/1) have also obliged at lengthy odds. We can but hope for a repeat….

It’s easy to like the Copperhead Course, a classical tree-lined, doglegging design with the rough left up and small Bermuda greens. It takes a strong performance to win here.

Burns has done exactly that twice now, following up his maiden triumph with victory in a playoff over Davis Riley last year, while Paul Casey is another recent-enough double champion here.

The key is taming both ends of the scorebook. There’s five Par 3s at Copperhead, and four of them can be described as challenging – hitting approaches into small greens from 200+ yards is rarely a doozie. 

At the other end of the scale, the four Par 5s are there for the taking, so again hitting quality approaches from 200+ yards – if laying up has been ruled out – is the order of the day.

Burns, bizarrely, took completely contrasting routes in his two victories here. In 2021 he simply bombed and gouged his way to the W, recording just 58% GIR, whereas last year his ball-striking was exemplary. 

Since the pandemic year of 2020, when the Valspar wasn’t played, the two winning scores here have been -17 – much lower than Copperhead usually allows for. We’ll have to see if that trend continues this week.

Either way, we’ve armed ourselves with a handful of ball-striking beauties for our Valspar Championship sleeper shortlist.

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Ben Griffin – 50/1 – You wonder if these weak field events come along at just the right time for players trending nicely.

Justin Suh is definitely one that fits that bill – his odds have been slashed in half over the past few weeks, and Ben Griffin is another who heads to Innisbrook with excellent timing on his side.

The rookies has gained strokes on the field on approach in nine of his last eleven PGA TOUR start, has a reliable short game and franked top-25 turns at PGA National and Bay Hill with a solid top-40 in his first look at TPC Sawgrass.

Griffin’s timing could be impeccable if he carries that form to Palm Harbor.

Brandon Wu – 55/1 – Here’s another rookie that’s been showing up nicely of late.

Since finishing T2 at Pebble Beach, Brandon Wu has banked top-20s at both the PLAYERS Championship and the Honda Classic – a sure-sign of a youngster with plenty of maturity, not to mention a high-grade all-round game.

His ball-striking is typically immaculate – that always helps – and Wu also gained a shopping +1.88 strokes on the field putting at Sawgrass.

Put those ingredients together in the same week and Wu could well be a live contender come Sunday.

Byeong Hun An – 60/1 – The fast conditions on the Florida Swing are ideal for a player like Byeong Hun An, who has quality on approach and around the greens in abundance.

Before we could pull the trigger on a bet he withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational, shaking his backers’ confidence, but the Korean showed no signs of ailment in a respectable enough T35 at the PLAYERS Championship.

In similar conditions but amongst a much weaker field, we’re expecting much more from An.

Aaron Rai – 66/1 – A really capable tee-to-green merchant, Aaron Rai’s progress has been hampered by a lack of quality on the greens.

But at the PLAYERS Championship he had his first positive putting week since the Houston Open in November, where he finished T7. That shows what the Brit is capable of when the flat stick behaves.

T19 at Sawgrass and T29 at the Genesis, Rai has shown his ability to pick his way around challenging golf courses amongst elite opposition, so we can hope for another leap forward in his progress this week.

Luke List – 90/1 – Rarer than a sighting of Halley’s Comet, Luke List out up positive putting numbers at Sawgrass last week.

Yes, it came in the midst of a missed cut, but for the first 36 holes List putted better than most of the players in the field.

For a player of such ball-striking class, that really is eye-catching, and it won’t come as a shock to learn that the last time List putted really well he won the Farmers Insurance Open. 

Can lightning strike twice for List? 

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the Valspar Championship here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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