Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play  

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Fantasy Preview

There’s been plenty of talk this past week about driving distances and changing golf balls to stop them travelling so far, but at classic golf courses like the Copperhead at Innisbrook all of that talk goes out of the window.

Tighten up your fairways, put some ponds next to them and let your trees and rough flourish and hey presto: you’ve got yourself a decent challenge, regardless of how many players can hit the ball 300+ yards. 

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The wild closing holes of the Valspar Championship on Sunday were testament to that. Jordan Spieth, a multiple-time major champion, was well and truly flummoxed by the Copperhead’s ‘Snake Pit’, dumping a 3-wood into the drink, missing straightforward 6ft putts and failing to hit the right spot of the eighteenth green.

Adam Schenk, in unchartered territory as a tournament leader heading into its business end, went left rather than right on 18, ended up behind a tree, mashed a left-handed rescue shot into the rough on the other side of the fairway and watched his hopes of victory crumble.

All of which left Taylor Moore, who had serenely gone through the Snake Pit in -1, to claim a maiden PGA TOUR title. He wouldn’t admit as much, but he must have loved seeing Spieth and Schenk  make an almighty mess of the closing stretch.

Modifying the distance that golf balls travel? Nah, let’s have more tournaments played on tough tests like Copperhead, please.

This is your two-week warning for The Masters, with the Texas Open acting as the meat in the sandwich. But first, it’s a rare foray away from the PGA TOUR norm with the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play – remember, this event starts on Wednesday!

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week our top pick was Justin Thomas; who finished T10 with no sub-69 rounds at Copperhead.  Needless to say, after coming off a big win at THE PLAYERS, our T10 from JT was a bit of a disappointment but you can’t win them all.

Let’s shake off the dust from Copperhead and try to grab a winner this week in Texas!

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WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Field

It’s the top 64 players in the world that score an invite to the Match Play initially, although the situation with LIV Gold kinda complicates matters.

So the list of invitees has been extended accordingly, and only Justin Thomas and Justin Rose have declined their call-up.

All of which means we have a field stacked with most of the world’s best golfers, with the likes of Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and defending champion Scottie Scheffler all set to do battle in the rarefied air of match play golf.

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Almost incredibly, the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth have never reached the quarter-final stage of this tournament, which perhaps reflects its unpredictability.

Kevin Kisner, whose record in this event is exemplary, returns alongside Corey Conners, who beat Dustin Johnson in the bronze medal game 12 months ago.

This Week’s Course Preview

Since the tournament switched to the Austin Country Club in Texas, we’ve seen the final of the WGC Match Play contested by grinders like Kisner, Billy Horschel and Matt Kuchar, blitzkrieg merchants such as Johnson and Bubba Watson and a player that can do simply everything; Scottie Scheffler.

Austin CC is a slightly claustrophobic Pete Dye design, which perhaps helps to explain the diverse array of characters that have performed well here, with just 7,082 yards of real estate for its Par 71.

Mind you, the dense tree-lines make taking shortcuts a little harder than normal, so perhaps there is an advantage to dropping your ball in the fairway off the tee and building from there – for Kisner and Kuchar in particular that’s their modus operandi wherever they go.

With Lake Austin a formidable presence around the golf course and a number of Dye’s trademark pot bunkers to avoid, perhaps discretion is the better part of valor at Austin CC.

There’s opportunities to open up the arms on Par 5s that can generally be reached in two and a drivable Par 4, while some stark elevation changes can see humongous drives unleashed when splitting the fairway.

But there’s a reason why the more mature player – Scheffler aside – has thrived in this event, with course management and percentage plays are all the rage in this format.

Weather Forecast for Austin, TX

Just to double down on what we mentioned earlier; the WGC Match Play runs from Wednesday through to Sunday.

And it’s the early part of the tournament that could be beset by some unpredictable weather. Wednesday might just avoid the rain showers, but it looks increasingly likely that Thursday and Friday won’t – the latter in particular could see plenty of the wet stuff fall.

The wind could reach 17mph on each of these first three days too, but then things should quieten down for the weekend. There’s sunny spells and cloud, lower wind speeds, less chance of rain and temperatures reaching 82˚F.

AUSTIN WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

The most unpredictable of tournaments ended with the most predictable of champions 12 months ago.

Scottie Scheffler was in the midst of a heater that would see him crowned Masters champion just a couple of weeks later, and despite losing to Tommy Fleetwood in his group nothing would stop him from clinching a third TOUR win in just six weeks.

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Scheffler defeated Ian Poulter and Matt Fitzpatrick to progress from Group 5 as the winner having downed the U.S. Open champion via a six-hole playoff, before a first bracket win against Billy Horschel went right down to the wire.

But he seemed to kick up through the gears from there, comfortably beating Seamus Power in the quarter-finals and Dustin Johnson in the semis to set-up a final with perennial Match Play stalwart Kisner.

Any hope of a tight final was extinguished when Scheffler raced into a three-shot lead after six holes, and while Kisner gamely fought on it was highly unlikely he was going to reel in the future world number one – so it proved, with Scheffler wrapping up an early 4&3 victory.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play this Week

Look back through the history books of the WGC Match Play and you’ll see a long list of shock results and upsets. It’s why playing DFS for this event is so difficult, so we’re keeping stakes low this week.

• PGA $30k Albatross: The unpredictability of this event means you’ll do very well to get a full roster of six players through to the bracket stage – even five would be an achievement. If you can manage it, a single-entry contest like this one will help you to maximize your edge.

• PGA $200k Drive the Green: If you do want a chance to win a bigger prize, this $5 entry contest pays out $25k to first place and a host of other sizable payouts. It’s worth a try given the variance of this tournament!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

For every Kisner and Horschel that’s won the Match Play at Austin CC there’s also a Bubba and a DJ, and that showcases the difficulty of handicapping this event.

Evidently, there’s plenty to be said for plotting your way around and making some putts – the likes of Kuchar, Chris Kirk and Brian Harman have also done okay in this event, but clearly there’s an opportunity for the huge hitters to try and make something happen on the Par 5s and drivable Par 4s.

Perhaps going in with a mixed lineup is wise, while remembering that the group draw should also identify opportunities – mind you, if you’d backed Richard Bland and Takumi Kanaya to come through their groups 12 months ago you might have been tried as a witch.

So let’s just focus on the players we expect to thrive on a Pete Dye layout in windy Texas, which features plenty of hazards and super-fast greens – weather depending.

Also, it’s worth making a note of the points scoring system that DraftKings and the like will be deploying this week:

• Hole won (+3 points), halved (+0.75), lost (-0.75).
• Hole not played (+1.6).
• Matches won (+5), halved (+2).
• Bonus for three consecutive holes won (+5).
• Bonus for no holes lost (+7.5).

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play  

Top Tier Pick #1

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 102.9 Salary: $11,100)

Can anybody beat Scottie Scheffler over 18 holes of match play golf right now?

It’s the sort of challenge that Rahm, McIlroy and co will look forward to, if they get a chance, but the world number one is simply playing better golf than anybody else right now.

To make matters worse for the field, he’s reached the final of this event for the past two consecutive years – yes he’s the chalk pick, but is there anyone else on the planet you’d want carrying your money right now than Scheffler?

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
• Scoring Average – 2nd
• SG: Approach – 7th

Top Tier Pick #2

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 91.6 Salary: $10,700)

With three points earned at the 2022 Presidents Cup and 3.5 at the Ryder Cup in 2021, Patrick Cantlay has a penchant for match play golf.

And why wouldn’t he? His all-round game is so good that it’s very difficult for his opponents to ‘break’ him, and that metronomic ball-striking lumps the pressure back on his rivals.

It helps that Cantlay is playing so well right now, with top-fives at the Genesis Invitational and Arnold Palmer backed by T19 at the PLAYERS, where he gained +2.86 strokes on the field with his ball-striking.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 2nd
• Bogey Avoidance – 6th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 8th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 86.4 Salary: $9,000)

Although his place in Europe’s Ryder Cup team is pretty much assured, Tyrrell Hatton will still want to put in a strong performance at the Match Play this week as a reminder of his talents.

In five starts in this tournament he’s advanced from his group on three occasions, which is a healthy strike rate, and while Hatton didn’t have the best of times in the last Ryder Cup, he was still entrusted to play four ties – that shows how well respected he is in the sport.

The Brit is heading to Texas off the back of consecutive top-fives at the Arnold Palmer and PLAYERS Championship, and as a noted Links player he will feel right at home in the Lonestar State breeze.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 9th
• SG: Approach – 10th
• SG: Putting – 18th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Si-Woo Kim (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 72.9 Salary: $7,500)

With a rock-solid tee-to-green game and a prior victory on a Pete Dye layout to his name, Si-Woo Kim should be in a good place in Texas.

The Korean is hitting some quality tee shots right now, which tends to apply pressure to an opponent in the match play format, and both his ball-striking and recovery game – when firing – are outstanding.

Kim was the International team’s best player at the 2022 Presidents Cup, so his match play credentials are confirmed.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 19th
• Scoring Average – 21st
• Scrambling – 21st

Low-Tier Pick

Kyoung-hoon Lee (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 69.1, Salary: $6,400)

After plumbing the depths at the Genesis Invitational, where he really struggled with his game, K.H. Lee appeared to be back in finer fettle at the Valspar Championship.

He gained strokes on the field in all departments bar from around-the-green, which is usually a strength of his, and so the prognosis is much more positive for the Korean.

Young gained two points for the International team at the Presidents Cup, defeating match play specialist Billy Horschel in the singles and teaming up with Tom Kim to defeat Scheffler and Sam Burns, no less, in a foursomes contest.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 28th
• Greens in Regulation – 31st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 41st

Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Cam Davis (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 55.00, Salary: $6,600)

Growing up playing golf in fast and firm conditions, it’s never a big surprise when Australians come to America and succeed in similar surroundings.

Cam Davis is a chip off the old block in that he flights his ball down off the tee and up on approach, and with steady hands around the greens he has the tools to thrive at Austin CC.

He will be looking to build upon a T6 turn at the PLAYERS Championship, and having earned two points at the Presidents Cup, Davis seemed to take to the match play format with aplomb. 

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 16th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 36th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 51st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Victor Perez (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 85.8, Salary: $6,500)

Perhaps one of the reasons that the big guns don’t always fire at the Match Play is because they have Augusta on their minds.

But one player who won’t be lacking in focus is Victor Perez. He would love to join the PGA TOUR full time, and he’d love to sneak into Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup team too, and a strong showing this week would help in both regards.

You may recall the Frenchman reached the semi-final of this event in 2021, losing to eventual champion Billy Horschel, and somebody that has won on the Links in Scotland will surely feel comfortable playing his golf in the Lonestar State.

Key Stats:

• N/A

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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