Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Valero Texas Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Valero Texas Open  

Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview

Of course we all wanted a Scottie Scheffler vs Rory McIlroy final at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play last week….

But you would have needed a heart of stone to deny Sam Burns and Cameron Young their chance to duke it out in the final, with both playing sublime golf all week long to power through their brackets.

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In the end, Young seemed to run out of steam as Burns cruised to a 6 & 5 victory, but having downed the world’s two best players in their respective semi-finals, the duo – likely to be part of America’s Ryder Cup team for a number of years to come. Both have shown a stomach for match play golf, that’s for sure.

This is your official ten-day countdown for The Masters. We’ll be taking in the sights and sounds of Augusta National this time next week.

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But, in the meantime, we have the Valero Texas Open. It’s winner-takes-all for the champion – a PGA TOUR title, a handsome payday and that final place in The Masters field.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week’s top pick for us was Scheff, and although we were disappointed to not see him in the final match, he still overall faired pretty darn well. 

Cantlay was also a solid choice but his T9 wasn’t enough to pile up the cash last week.  

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Valero Texas Open Field

Given the proximity to the year’s first major, you won’t be surprised to learn that the field at the Texas Open can best be described as ‘sparse’.

Tyrrell Hatton, who seemed to be battling a hand injury at the Match Play, leads the way alongside Hideki Matsuyama, who will no doubt be hoping to build on encouraging signs of life in his game ahead of a return to Augusta.

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Chris Kirk, Si-Woo Kim and Corey Conners have already booked their spot in the field for The Masters, but for everybody else it’s open season: the likes of Rickie Fowler, Taylor Montgomery, Davis Riley and even Matt Kuchar will be hoping to punch their ticket to Georgia this week.

This Week’s Course Preview

Whoever secures their place in The Masters next week will have certainly earned it.

That’s not to say that TPC San Antonio is the toughest course on the PGA TOUR rotation, but when you factor in the occasionally freaky conditions in Texas – as have been predicted, somewhat, this week – it can make for a challenging week.

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It’s a decent stretch at 7,438 yards, although some of that length is negated by undulations and elevation changes, but there’s still hard graft to be put in as three of the four Par 5s measure 590+ yards and three of the Par 3s, which played over par in 2022, require decent hits in – the thirteenth measures a whopping 241 yards.

There’s plenty of sand and water is in play often, but the real threat at TPC San Antonio is the lack of trees – for a course beholden to an often stiff wind, that can present a stern challenge.

The good news, in a sense, is that the Bermuda/Poa overseeded greens are large in size, but even so these can be hard to hold in the breeze given that some feature closely-shaven run-offs and waste areas. 

Winning scores at TPC San Antonio had been low in recent times until Spaun won with -13 last year – the wind was up to the extent that even hitting 66% GIR became a victory in itself. Ten of the holes averaged over par too, with the first, fourth and ninth (all Par 4s) proving to be the toughest on the real estate.

Interestingly, the easiest holes were 14, 17 (a drivable Par 4) and 18, so there could be some fun to be had late in the day.

Weather Forecast for San Antonio, TX

It would be wise to keep a close eye on the weather forecast for San Antonio in the days ahead.

Heavy rain showers have been predicted for Thursday and Friday, while wind speeds could top 15mph.

At least it will remain warm throughout, with temperatures of 87˚F possible, and the weekend is shaping up nicely enough with cloud and sunny spells and a drop-off in the wind.

SAN ANTONIO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Valero Texas Open

What a few weeks it was for J.J. Spaun…

Not only did he capture his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Texas Open, he then went out and made a mockery of the notion that debutants always struggle at Augusta National – his T23 at The Masters remains one of Spaun’s career highlights.

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He played solid all-round golf in the Lonestar State, but in ranking 12th for GIR and 23rd for SG: Approach it’s clear how on point his short game was.

After opening up 67-70-69, Spaun was able to keep the field at bay on Sunday with a knock of 69 – but it could have been so different had he let a double-bogey on the first hole derail his hopes.

But Spaun showed tremendous fortitude to then play his final 17 holes bogey-free and with five birdies to record a two-shot victory over Matts Jones and Kuchar – the former bogeying 16 and failing to make birdie or better at the easy eighteenth to force a playoff.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valero Texas Open this Week

Some of the DFS sites have already started to publish their exciting contest detail for The Masters, so the question is are you going to hold onto your marbles until then or try to win some more this week? Here’s a couple of options to consider.

• PGA $300k Drive the Green: If you’re looking for a cheap opportunity to build your bankroll, this could be it: $5 per ticket with a top prize of $25k. Naturally, there’s plenty of consolation payouts on the way down too.
• PGA $30k Caddie: If you want to keep your cards close to your chest, here’s a single-entry game that costs $5. The Texas Open is a tough field to handicap, so there could be scope for a decent payout if you’re on the right side of variance here.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

To offer some insight into the challenge posed by TPC San Antonio’s unique conditions, three of the last four winners of this event have been priced at 175/1, 175/1 and 200/1!

That shows the variance on offer at an event that last year had a top-10 made up of bombers (Jones), plotters (Brendon Todd), flushers (Keegan Bradley) and putters (Kuchar). There really is something for everyone at this layout.

The key, ultimately, is what you do around and on the greens. The GIR counts of Spaun (66.7%) and 2021 champion Jordan Spieth (58%) are both evidence of how hard these greens are to hold, while confirming that scrambling and strokes gained around the green will be two of the more important stats in our shortlisting.

There’s a need to hit long approaches from 175+ yards, and even then there’s likely to be putts of 20ft or more as the wind pushes balls off-line.

It’s not impossible that those with a Masters berth already secured will head to TPC San Antonio and go through the motions – will they truly fancy it in 15mph winds? Perhaps sticking with those who could earn a place at Augusta is the smart play.

Any exposed, wind-affected course can be used as a correlating guide, but how about the American Express: within the last six editions of the Texas Open, the winner’s circle includes Andrew Landry and Charley Hoffman. Both have won the American Express too, while Si-Woo Kim has won the Californian jaunt and finished runner-up at TPC San Antonio. Many others have finished in the top three in both tournaments as well.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open  

Top Tier Pick #1

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 78/1, Salary: $10,200)

It’s very much now or never for Rickie if he wants to book a return to Augusta, and it’s fortunate for him that TPC San Antonio suits his all-round game.

Fowler is showcasing quality on approach throughout the bag, is straight enough off the tee and is a decent enough scrambler to recover tricky situations. As far as putting goes, Rickie is generally solid from long-range and should hopefully avoid too many three putts – an absolute no-no in tournaments played on large greens.

He’s in glorious form too, with four stroke-play top-20s in his last five starts that include T13 and T20 in high-grade events at the PLAYERS and Genesis. Two top-20s in three trips to TPC San Antonio set the scene nicely.

He’s been playing well for a while now, backing up T5 finishes at the Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer with T21 at the Valspar, and T6 here 12 months ago sets the scene nicely for the four-time PGA TOUR winner who has also finished runner-up in our correlating Desert Classic.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 17th
• Approaches from Inside 100 Yards – 18th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 23rd

Top Tier Pick #2

Ben Griffin (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 73.2, Salary: $8,700)

Although far from being a household name in the world of golf, Ben Griffin has made solid strides so far in his rookie year on the PGA TOUR.

He’d love to cap that with a win and a place in The Masters field – who wouldn’t!? – and there’s a chance that TPC San Antonio will play right into his skillset.

An excellent driver of the ball, Griffin also boasts a high-quality short game and has plenty of feel when putting from 20ft or more.

Results like T14 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T35 at the PLAYERS stand out nicely in this field, so can Griffin carry his heater all the way to Augusta?

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 25th
• Putting from > 25ft – 26th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Brendon Todd (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 64.9, Salary: $7,900)

Let’s be honest; there aren’t many PGA TOUR golf courses where a guy that averages 280 yards off the tee can truly compete.

But TPC San Antonio is one of them, for the most part, thanks to the added yardage of the elevation gain and a necessity for keeping your ball in play, which is an area in which Brendon Todd thrives.

Despite his lack of distance, Todd has a pair of top-10s to his name at this stretch, and that is down to his short game prowess and ability to keep bogeys off his card.

T2 at the Pebble Beach, Todd also played nicely in his T27 at the elite PLAYERS Championship, and so a drop down in grade here – at a layout that suits – should hopefully yield rewards.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 12th
• SG: Putting – 27th 
• Birdie or Better % – 37th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Nick Taylor (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 75.0, Salary: $7,600)

It’s been a mixed bag in 2023 for Nick Taylor, who has recorded as many top-10 finishes as he has missed cuts (three).

Even though his record at TPC San Antonio hasn’t always been a happy hunting ground either, we like the Canadian at this layout thanks to his long-range approach play, dependable short game and ability to avoid trouble on the greens from 20ft and more – Taylor ranks 13th this season for Putts per Round.

After a disappointing turn at the PLAYERS, Taylor was in much better form at the Valspar – finishing T10 despite losing an admittedly minuscule -0.01 strokes to the field putting. Given how good he is with the flat stick normally, that bodes well.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 23rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
• SG: Putting – 53rd

Low-Tier Pick

Eric Cole (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 57.1, Salary: $7,300)

Since bursting onto the scene with that deepest of deep runs into the Honda Classic, Eric Cole has endured a mixed bag of results since.

But T27 at the PLAYERS Championship really does stand up nicely in this field, and confirms that he’s at his best when hitting precise approaches or scrambling his way to safety when he does miss.

Cole’s not too shabby on the greens either, as a Putts-per-Round rank of fifth this season attests, and the fact he ranks higher for Scoring Average than Birdie Average confirms he has the grit to grind it out when conditions are tough.

Key Stats:

• Putts-per-Round – 5th
• Scoring Average – 36th
• SG: Approach – 54th

Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open

Nate Lashley (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 57.9, Salary: $7,200)

As we were building a profile of the kind of player we want onside this week, a few names leapt out as something of a surprise.

Nate Lashley has the kind of expertise on approach from the fairway and out of the rough we’re looking for, with capability from 200+ yards and from much closer to the green – both vital weapons at TPC San Antonio.

He’s a decent scrambler and makes plenty of birdies too, with a T18 last time he played here on the resumé. A missed cut last time out at the Valspar notwithstanding, Lashley could be a handy sleeper pick this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 16th
• Approaches from Inside 100 Yards – 26th
• Greens in Regulation – 43rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open

David Lingmerth (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.7, Salary: $7,100)

A player that is easily passed over by DFS gamers and bettors, David Lingmerth has plenty to offer this week.

The Swede has gained strokes on the field on approach in his last five outings – a stretch that includes the PLAYERS and Arnold Palmer, remember – so he is certainly punching above his weight right now.

Top-10s at Sawgrass and PGA National were backed by a solid enough T27 at the Valspar, and the hope is that improved iron and wedge play into large greens will protect Lingmerth from having to unfurl his below-average chipping stroke too often.

A prolific birdie-maker, Lingmerth hasn’t been putting too well of late but ranks nicely on TOUR for Putts per Round and putting from 20ft and further, so hopefully a return to better days with the flat stick are nigh.

Key Stats:

• Putts-per-Round – 22nd
• Birdie Average – 46th
• SG: Approach – 59th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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