Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 RBC Heritage

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 RBC Heritage  

RBC Heritage Fantasy Preview

It felt, be it sub-consciously on the part of the TV broadcasters or otherwise, that The Masters was golf’s version of a superhero movie.

The good guys were the PGA TOUR pros who have stayed loyal and true to golf’s traditions, while the baddies from LIV – headed by Greg Norman, a megalomaniac with world domination in mind – were at Augusta to steal the Green Jacket and all the powers it brings.

Like all generic superhero franchises, it was ‘good’ that prevailed over ‘evil’ with Jon Rahm reeling in Brooks Koepka after four days of titanic battles in apocalyptic conditions.

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As Koepka sauntered into the lead early on in the tournament, the 100ft trees that crashed to the ground in the dramatic weather in Georgia felt like something of a metaphor; the hopes of golfing purists similarly falling a-timber with them.

But Rahm, courtesy of an outstanding final round of 69 in still-tough conditions, made the most of Koepka’s hapless front nine on Sunday to secure the first Green Jacket of his career and continues his exceptional start to 2023.

Not bad for a guy who four-putted the first hole of the tournament….

Remember when the RBC Heritage was simply a post-Masters schedule-filler? Not anymore, with elevated status and a $20 million prize pool ensuring many of the game’s finest will head to South Carolina this week.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

The Masters quickly became the Jon Rahm show on Sunday, ending with a well deserving win for the Spaniard. 

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With only two missed cuts out of our 12 picks last week, our top-horse Cantlay finished T14 along with a handful of T16 finishers.

Although Rahm and Mickelson were not in our picks last week, we still faired well overall; but unfortunately not well enough to be on top. 

On to next week!

The RBC Heritage Field

A whopping 18 of the world’s top-20 players will duke it out for the Tartan Jacket this week.

By the time you read this, or indeed thereafter, there may be late withdrawals as tends to happen in a post-major week – Rory McIlroy and Will Zalatoris have already announced their WD.

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But Rahm is still slated to play, as is Scottie Scheffler and the likes of defending champion Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, fresh from their top-10 finishes at Augusta.

Others, such as Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Thomas, will also fancy their chances of adding more silverware to their collections.

This Week’s Course Preview

A week after the complexities of Augusta National, the players head to a track designed by the man renowned for its desire to make the sport as difficult as possible: Pete Dye.

But his work on the Harbour Town Links, to which Jack Nicklaus was a contributor, finds him in somewhat more generous mood, even if his trademark tiny, ‘upturned saucer’ greens are very much in situ.

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You could say that water is in play on every hole too, while it’s amazing how frequently the players seem to end up in the sand at Harbour Town – a result, perhaps, of the occasionally fierce cross-winds that blow here.

But the rough is usually generously short and the thick tree lines, unusual for a coastal track, protect the players somewhat from the worst of the wind down on Hilton Head Island.

The Par 71 layout measures 7,191 yards and features four Par 3s and a trio of Par 5s – the bulk of the heavy scoring will be done on the longer holes, with the 550-yard second hole seeing almost as many eagles as bogeys in 2022. 

Much of what will unfold this week will be dictated by the weather, but a score of around -13 will likely be needed to stand a chance. And that could all be undone by the final hole, a 472-yard Par 4 on which danger lurks at every turn – this played comfortably over par last year.

Weather Forecast for Hilton Head, SC

If the players were fed of getting soaked to the skin at The Masters, the bad news is that more of the wet stuff could be heading their way this week.

The early forecast for Hilton Head Island suggests that thundery downpours on Friday and Sunday are possible, although the good news is that the temperatures will be pleasant – around 75˚F by all accounts – and the wind not that fearsome (barring localized gusts). 

Thursday and Saturday are therefore likely to be the best days for scoring, with wind speeds of around 8-10mph and warm, sunny spells.

HILTON HEAD WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the RBC Heritage

Jordan Spieth delivering a trademark Spiethian performance to win the 2022 RBC Heritage.

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He ranked just 60th for SG: Putting, but struck the ball beautifully – making three eagles on the way to a play-off victory over Patrick Cantlay.

The triumph was secured in classic Spieth fashion; lumping his approach shot into a bunker on the first playoff hole before squeezing a sublime chip to just seven inches. Cantlay, following Spieth into the sand, was unable to get up and down.

It could have all been so different had Shane Lowry not hit his approach to the Par 3 fifteenth into the drink – that double-bogey, followed by just par at the easy Par 5 sixteenth, condemned the Irishman to a share of T3.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the RBC Heritage this Week

Once upon a time, the RBC Heritage was a fantastic vehicle for fantasy golf with its weak field and unique conditions. These days, things are a little harder with the quality of player on show and the fear of a post-Masters mindset. Still, there’s some attractive contests to get stuck into.

• PGA $75k Dogleg: Although single-entry contests are not always a wise way to go for events of high variance, if you are feeling confident in your lineup then this game features a $7.5k top prize with just 2,650 teams in the mix.

• PGA $400k Drive the Green: Navigating the pitfalls of this event may require a multi-roster build, and so targeting one of the cheaper multi-entry contests – this one is $5 per team – is perhaps the way to go. There’s $50k on offer to the winner.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The RBC Heritage was once one of the most bizarre tournaments on the PGA TOUR rotation, with winners such as C.T. Pan, Stewart Cink and Satoshi Kodaira all taking the spoils at sportsbook odds of 160/1 or longer.

There was no set formula, with bombers, putting maestros and young upstarts – Wesley Bryan even won here in 2017 – all coming to the party.

Now, thanks to its elevated status, there should be a bit more certainty to our selections as we revert to the tried and tested Pete Dye method of success.

Harbour Town has largely been forgiving off the tee, and that was the case last year too – five of the first nine players on the leaderboard had a higher GIR percentage than fairways found. The takeaway is that quality iron players from the thicker grass can still prevail if they are somewhat errant off the tee (in true Spiethian style).

Dye made a habit of designing second-and-third shot golf courses, and Harbour Town is in that lineage. If you can hold the greens with your approach then happy days; these Bermuda/Poa overseeded greens aren’t the smoothest necessarily, but they aren’t anywhere near as complex as the surfaces at Augusta last week.

If you do miss the green, then in true Dye style you’ll need to have good hands to get up and down, so quality approach players – with a reliable scrambling and rescue game – are the order of the day.

If you’re looking for correlations, you don’t have to look too far – the RSM Classic is played not a million miles away in Georgia, while players comfortable in seaside, breezy conditions have a habit at showing up in the same tournaments; the Sony Open, AT&T Pebble Beach, Farmers Insurance Open and the Corales Puntacana can all be added to your shortlist. 

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the RBC Heritage   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RBC Heritage  

Top Tier Pick #1

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 89.4, Salary: $10,300)

Although there’s others that are perhaps better scramblers and with softer hands around the greens, Patrick Cantlay has a fine habit of making it work for him at Harbour Town.

A formline of 2-MC-3-7-3 is every bit as good as it looks at this idiosyncratic golf course, and that record at this track feeds nicely into Cantlay’s recent form. Four consecutive top-20 finishes, all enjoyed in high-quality events like The Masters, PLAYERS and Arnold Palmer Invitational, is a clear indication of where his game is at.

With top-fives at the Scottish Open and Tournament of Champions, he knows his way around blustery, ocean-lined tracks too.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
• Scoring Average – 8th

Top Tier Pick #2

Sungjae Im (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 79.9, Salary: $8,600)

Ranking 15th for SG: Tee-to-Green at The Masters and finishing T16, you get a feel for how solid Sungjae Im’s ball-striking was at Augusta.

It’s a continuation of spirited showings that have included T6 at the PLAYERS and T21 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, so once again the Korean is showing that he can hang with the best in the business.

Im’s record at Harbour Town is improving year-on-year, and a top-five at the Tournament of Champions – plus a win in the Bahamas on the Korn Ferry Tour – show that coastal golf in the wind is of no concern.

With an excellent all-round game, Im has the weapons to thrive at Pete Dye golf courses and at Harbour Town in particular.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th
• Scoring Average – 16th
• Scrambling – 16th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Justin Rose (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 70.9, Salary: $7,700)

Many shrewd judges expected a deep run from Justin Rose at The Masters, although in the end he had to settle for a close-but-not-close-enough T16.

That came courtesy of a short game masterclass – the Brit ranked 1st for SG: Putting and 18th for SG: Around-the-Green, and that’s interesting given that his ball-striking has been strong for the past few months.

If Rose can put both elements of his game together then he can contend at Harbour Town, where a sole visit in recent times brought a T14 finish. A former winner at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, these are perfect conditions for him.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 13th
• Scrambling from the Rough – 16th
• SG: Approach – 39th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Chris Kirk (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 70.4, Salary: $7,500)

The good vibes continue for Chris Kirk, whose win at the Honda Classic and third-place finishes at the Sony Open and American Express have since been supplemented by T10 at the Texas Open and a rock-solid T23 at The Masters.

Ironically, Augusta probably isn’t that great a fit for his game – testament to how well Kirk is playing right now, and instead it’s squally seaside tracks likes Harbour Town that are more in his skillset.

A solid performer at Waialae and Pebble Beach over the years, Kirk also has a top-10 to his name at this stretch, so there has to be strong interest in his chances this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 24th
• Scoring Average – 32nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 32nd

Low-Tier Pick

Webb Simpson (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 49.5, Salary: $7,400)

When a formerly elite player shows signs of recovery after a period in the doldrums, knowing when to jump back on-board the train is crucial.

As far as Webb Simpson is concerned, Harbour Town is surely the perfect venue to try and take advantage of his recent renaissance – T7 at the Valspar and T24 at the Arnold Palmer both encouraging returns.

Simpson’s record at Harbour Town is pretty much unmatched, with a win, two other top-fives and T9, T11 and T16 finishes here in the past decade. As such, Simpson feels like a bargain pick this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 39th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 53rd
• Putts per Round – 60th

Sleeper Pick for the RBC Heritage

Denny McCarthy (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 67.0, Salary: $7,200)

When he thinks about his career in golf, and his undoubted status as one of the best putters in the sport, you wonder if Denny McCarthy feels as though he has underachieved on the PGA TOUR.

Still winless, most of McCarthy’s best chances of breaking his duck have come in events not all that dissimilar to this: T4 at Pebble Beach, solo fourth in the Corales Puntacana and even T3 at the similarly-blustery Honda Classic.

Who knows, maybe that elusive victory is just around the corner? Lead-in form of T13 at the PLAYERS Championship, T14 at the Genesis and T19 at Valspar is indicative of a player feeling pretty good about their game right now.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 11th
• One-Putt Percentage – 15th
• Scoring Average – 23rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the RBC Heritage

Adam Svensson (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 62.1, Salary: $7,000)

A win in the RSM Classic late last year, admittedly in a weaker field, is still a strong harbinger of the feeling that Harbour Town should suit Adam Svensson.

The Canadian has also won the Korn Ferry Tour’s Great Abaco Classic in the Bahamas, and has banked top-10s at the Sony Open and Honda Classic, so here’s another player that seems to thrive the most in a breeze.

A missed cut at The Masters last time out is less of a concern when we factor in Svensson’s strong form prior to that: T9 at the Genesis, T13 at the PLAYERS and T24 at the Arnold Palmer are very handy indicators.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 15th
• SG: Putting – 41st
• SG: Approach – 53rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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