Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta  

Mexico Open at Vidanta Fantasy Preview

There was a heart-warming tale at the Zurich Classic on Sunday as old pals Davis Riley and Nick Hardy secured their maiden PGA TOUR titles together in New Orleans.

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The pair rank 11th and 22nd respectively on TOUR for SG: Approach, but playing in the pairs event clearly saw them elevate the other aspects of their game to new heights as they saw off the challenge of Adam Hadwin and Nick Taylor by two shots.

And if these maidens had any nerves approaching the business end of their first win at golf’s top table, they didn’t show them. Indeed, they made four birdies in the last six holes to get the job done.

They celebrated as you would expect a pair of players who have known each other since they were 14, and it will be interesting to see what impact – if any – this win has on their careers: two fellas by the name of Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith enjoyed some of their earliest successes when winning the Zurich Classic.

The PGA TOUR heads off on its annual jolly to Mexico this week, before returning to American soil and beginning the countdown to the PGA Championship in mid-May via the Wells Fargo Championship and AT&T Byron Nelson.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week our top dogs were the Cantlay-Xander duo, and the boys ended up T4 for the week.

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The Mexico Open at Vidanta Field

Defending champion Jon Rahm, fresh from his Masters triumph, headlines the action in Mexico this week.

He will be joined south of the border by Tony Finau, who was runner-up to Rahm in this event in 2022. Davis Riley and Nick Hardy have both, understandably, withdrawn after initially entering the tournament.

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In what is very much a weak field, the likes of Alex Noren, Andrew Putnam and the in-form Wyndham Clark may consider this a fine opportunity to secure some new silverware.

Nicolai Hojgaard will look to make the most of his Special Temporary Membership of the PGA TOUR, while 17 players from Latin America will be hoping to get support from the local crowds in Mexico – the Puerto Rico Open champion Nico Echavarria perhaps the most likely of them to feature prominently. 

This Week’s Course Preview

The 2022 edition of this tournament gave us a first look at the Vidanta club in Nuevo Vallarta, and it played pretty much as we expected to.

Although a costal layout, this doesn’t necessarily have a Linksy feel, although water is in play as the track winds along the Ameca River.

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The key characteristic is that it plays long – around 7,450 yards for its Par 71 – but has wide open landing zones off the tee, so it’s very much bombs away. Rahm, for example, averaged a mind-boggling 340 yards off the tee last year.

The greens are generously proportioned too, with GIR counts of 75% and higher not uncommon on the top page of the leaderboard, so this does appear to be a layout where the long hitters with the most reliable putting stroke on Paspalum greens will thrive.

With all due respect to the individuals mentioned, when the likes of Martin Trainer and Satoshi Kodaira are making 24 and 21 birdies each for the week, you know that track is there for the taking.

Despite being a Par 71, there are still four Par 5s to work with at Vidanta, and unsurprisingly these were amongst the easiest holes in 2022. But the most malleable was the drivable Par 4 seventh, which played to around 300 yards. There were more eagles here than bogeys last year, which tells the tale.

The three hardest holes – eight, ten and sixteen – are long Par 4s in the 475-500 yard range, and so the champion will need to navigate these successfully this week.

Weather Forecast for Vallarta, MEX

Sunny, warm and slightly windy – we’re in Mexico, after all.

All four days of the tournament are shaping up nicely, with sunny spells and temperatures of around 84 degrees.

The winds may get up slightly higher than the predicted 12mph, but if they don’t then Vidanta could play host to an absolute birdie-fest.

PUERTO VALLARTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Mexico Open at Vidanta

Jon Rahm did what Jon Rahm does at the Mexico Open last year: asserting his dominance to burst clear of the contending pack.

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The Spaniard found himself in a four-way tie deep into proceedings in the final round, but he made a big birdie at 14 and played no-risk golf to set an unassailable lead at -17.

Tony Finau and Brandon Wu both finished hot but couldn’t quite get to Rahm, while a bogey at the easy Par 5 fourteenth brought an end to any hopes Kurt Kitayama had of securing what would then have been his maiden PGA TOUR title.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Mexico Open at Vidanta this Week

Even though we’ve only got one year of Vidanta knowledge to work with, this tournament feels like an open and shut case when it comes to identifying those that can thrive at this layout. And that is usually very good news for fantasy gamers….

• PGA $600k Pitch & Putt: Given the confidence of knowing who should play well this week, we can loosen the pursestrings and try our hand at some of the meatier contests – this $20 entry game pays a mammoth $200k to the winner, plus some handsome consolation prizes as well.

• PGA $20k Albatross: Given our insights this week, there’s no harm in taking on a single-entry game either. For $12, you’ll get a crack at a $2,000 top prize here – and you’ll only be taking on less than 2,000 other players into the bargain.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Greg Norman, who is golf’s kinda persona non grata these days, has a habit of designing golf courses that can be taken apart by the best in the business.

El Camaleon and TPC San Antonio are just two of his designs that become birdie-fare when the conditions allow, and Vidanta looks very much to be in that lineage on first glance.

The first ten players home last year all averaged way over 300 yards off the tee – we’re probably talking closer to 325 yards, on average – and those reveals just how carefree you can be off the tee at this layout. If you can’t bomb, you might as well not bother coming.

There’s still stacks of approaches in the 200+ yard range to be made, but GIR counts of 75% and over confirm how easy these greens are to find and hold.

So, in truth, this comes down to a putting contest for the biggest hitters – who will handle the grainy Paspalum greens the best?

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Mexico Open at Vidanta   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Mexico Open at Vidanta  

Top Tier Pick #1

Gary Woodland (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 55.3, Salary: $9,600)

Although the case for last year’s 1-2 in Rahm and Finau is obvious, this feels like one of those weeks where getting as many of the next tier of players on board as possible is wise.

Gary Woodland seems as though he is on the precipice of a big run at a trophy. T9 at the Genesis, he bumbled along for a few weeks thereafter before finishing T14 at The Masters, where he was on the top page of the leaderboard for much of the four days.

In this weak field that is captivating form, and given Woodland’s length and the quality of his long-range approaches, this course should suit.

He travels well too. Woodland has posted top-threes at the CJ Cup and CIMB Classic on foreign soil, and once finished solo second at Mayakoba – which as we know is in Mexico.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 13th
• Fairway Proximity – 16th
• SG: Approach – 23rd

Top Tier Pick #2

Patrick Rodgers (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 62.8, Salary: $9,300)

It was close but no cigar for 54-hole leader Patrick Rodgers at the Texas Open, but he backed that up with a top-20 at the RBC Heritage to maintain his good form.

T10 at this course 12 months ago, there are few in this field better suited to making birdies on long layouts like Rodgers, who boasts the length to torch the Par 5 holes here and post a decent score.

A winner in Colombia (Korn Ferry Tour) and with a top-five in Bermuda, Rodgers is another player with pedigree outside of the United States.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 5th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 41st
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 41s

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Ben Martin (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 63.3, Salary: $8,600)

Once upon a time Ben Martin was ranked 48th in the world, and just recently he’s been playing somewhere near that level again.

He’s banked three top-10s on the PGA TOUR this term, with two of those coming within his last three starts at the Texas Open and Corales Puntacana.

Trending very nicely in our ball-striking tracker of late, Martin is a birdie machine that seems perfectly placed to take advantage of the generosity on show at Vidanta. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 15th
• Birdie Average – 34th
• Proximity to Hole – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

M.J. Daffue (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 62.8, Salary: $8,000)

When M.J. Daffue putts well, he tends to trouble the upper reaches of leaderboards.

The South African finished T15 and T19 respectively at the Texas Open and Valspar Championship recently, and both of those saw his trusted approach play aided by new-found reliability with the flat stick.

We don’t know much about his penchant for Paspalum greens, but we do know that as an outstanding approach player from 200+ yards that makes plenty of birdies, Daffue is made of the right stuff this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 24th
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 34th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 45th

Low-Tier Pick

Will Gordon (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 66.0, Salary: $7,900)

A sublime driver of the golf ball, Will Gordon showed his skill on Paspalum greens when finishing T3 at El Camaleon back in November.

That was as good as it’s got for him this season, and while his current formline does not make for ideal reading, there are hints of positivity: a round of 67 at TPC Sawgrass and a top-40 finish at the challenging Innisbrook among them.

Usually excellent in the ball-striking department, if Gordon putts as well as he did at El Camaleon this week then he could go close once more.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 40th
• Birdie Average – 43rd
• SG: Approach – 46th

Sleeper Pick for the Mexico Open at Vidanta

Vincent Norrman (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 51.4, Salary: $7,200)

He’s something of a curveball pick, given that he has missed two of his last three cuts, but Vincent Norrman is an interesting sleeper this week.

The Swede is super-long and ranks nicely on TOUR for approaches from 200+ yards, which are useful building blocks, as is a penchant for making birdies – particularly on Par 5 holes.

T16 at the Corales Puntacana and T21 at the Puerto Rico Open, Norrman has taken his chances in weak-field events this season, and anything on that level this week will be most welcome.

 Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200+ yards – 19th
• Driving Distance – 19th
• Birdie Average – 45th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Mexico Open at Vidanta

Brent Grant (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 47.4, Salary: $6,800)

To balance out our roster, we can call upon a youngster with some obvious advantages to his name.

If nothing else, Brent Grant brings two key weapons to the table this week: excellence off the tee and solid putting on Paspalum greens, which was evidenced by his T8 finish at the Corales Puntacana.

A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour that finished T12 at that tour’s El Bosque Mexico Championship, there’s certainly worse wagers to be placed than a small poke on Brent Grant this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 21st
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 31st
• Birdie Average – 47th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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