Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Wells Fargo Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship  

Wells Fargo Championship Fantasy Preview

It was déjà vu all over again at the Mexico Open on Sunday as Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Brandon Wu led the field home – as they had in 2022.

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But this time, it was Finau who would have revenge on the Spaniard after falling short 12 months ago. He had a two-shot lead heading into the final round, and not only did he see off the late charging Rahm he actually extended his advantage to three when all was said and done.

This was Finau’s fourth win in 18 months, and continued confirmation that premium ball-strikers will – eventually – get their chance to win on the PGA TOUR. It’s up to them to still take their opportunities, however, and ‘Big Tone’ has finally found that extra something to make his talent count. Expect many more titles for him in the next 18 months too if he retains his focus.

Who knows….maybe his next piece of silverware will come this week as the Wells Fargo Championship returns to Quail Hollow after a one-year hiatus.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week our 1-2 punch was Gary Woodland (T39) and Patrick Rodgers (T10).   It was a tough battle down the stretch with Rahm and Finau, and ultimately Tony was victorious — and unfortunately NOT on our radar. 

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The Wells Fargo Championship Field

The Wells Fargo is the latest PGA TOUR event to earn ‘elevated’ status and the $20 million prize pool that goes with it, and so most of the big names will tee it up in Charlotte.

Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are the major exceptions after choosing to sit this week out, but three-time Quail Hollow champion Rory McIlroy will be hoping that a return to a favorite hunting ground can spark a revival in his fortunes – he’s missed two of his last three cuts.

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Finau is in the mix alongside a classy supporting cast that includes RBC Heritage champion Matt Fitzpatrick, his deposed play-off victim there Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and former Quail Hollow winner Max Homa.

The field is laden with recent PGA TOUR winners too, including Sam Burns, Kurt Kitayama, Corey Conners and Chris Kirk.

This Week’s Course Preview

Quail Hollow hosted the Presidents Cup last year, so as preparations were underway for that TPC Potomac filled in as a one-year only host for the Wells Fargo.

But the shift back to Quail Hollow is welcome, with its mammoth length – 7,538 yards for Par 71 (three Par 5s) – keeping the players on their toes.

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There’s some huge bunkers protecting the greens, thick tree-lines and water in play on seven holes, so winning marks here aren’t always as low as they might be – McIlroy reigned supreme here in 2021 with a score of -10.

The complexity is enhanced by the Bermuda/Poa overseeded greens, which are undulating and, in some cases, raised up to make approach play that little but harder. It’s no wonder that after three Tom Fazio renovations, Quail Hollow was considered challenging enough to host the 2017 PGA Championship.

In 2021, only six holes averaged under par – including all three Par 5s unsurprisingly, while holes 17 and 18 (two-thirds of the fabled ‘Green Mile’ closing stretch) played as the hardest. The seventeenth is a nerve-shredding 190-yard Par 3, while the last features a small landing zone and one of the funkiest greens on the real estate.

Weather Forecast for Charlotte, NC

Although subject to change, the weather looks fairly consistent throughout the four days of action this week.

The temperatures will rise steadily from 71 degrees on Thursday to 77 come Sunday, while the wind speeds – according to the early forecast – are set fair at around 7mph.

Potentially watch out for some rain on Saturday, though – ‘scattered showers’ are the words used by a few different forecasters this week.

Last Year’s Results from the Wells Fargo Championship

The defending champion at the Wells Fargo Championship is Max Homa, whose opening 67-66 at TPC Potomac was enough to best the field in tough conditions in which no player made it to double digits under par.

In 2021, the last time Quail Hollow hosted the Wells Fargo, a typically strong driving performance from Rory McIlroy brought a third win at the venue.

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The Irishman shot a pair of 68s over the weekend to be the only player to make it to -10, with Abraham Ancer’s five birdies on the back nine on Sunday enough to thrust the Mexican close but not close enough at -9.

Keith Mitchell was left to ponder what might have been. He started the final round on -9, but a low-key final set of 18 – two birdies, three bogeys – meant that he had to settle for a share of T3 with Viktor Hovland.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Wells Fargo Championship this Week

A return to Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo is good news for daily fantasy players, who can now take advantage of a time-served ‘fit’ of player that thrives at this layout (more on that shortly).

In the meantime, here’s a couple of contests for both multi-drafters and single-entry fanatics to enjoy.

• PGA $300k Drive the Green: Because of the depth of field and number of players in it that have plenty going for them this week, perhaps drafting a few different builds is the way to go. In that vein, here’s a $5 game that allows for up to 150 entries with a top prize of $25k.

• PGA $40k Albatross: If you prefer to try your luck with a lone bullet, this single-entry contest costs $12 to join but has a handsome pay-scale – the winner takes home $4k, while the top 864 teams double their owner’s money at the very least.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Go long or go home is generally the message at Quail Hollow, where the longest, straightest hitters seem to enjoy the best rewards.

There are some anomalies from the 2021 leaderboard – Patrick Reed and Abraham Ancer are shorter hitters, but they have outstanding short games to make up for it.

Otherwise, sending your ball 300 yards off tee – with control, it must be said – seems to be a pre-requisite for success at this layout.

Fairways will inevitably be missed at a venue with plenty of ball-run and some thick tree lines, so plenty of approaches from 200+ yards will be made from the fairway and rough this week.

Quality approach play is the order of the day at Quail Hollow thanks to the uniqueness of the greens, which run fast and smooth and gave some ‘interesting’ undulations and landscaping to them. You want to be hitting your ball to the right part of the green to minimize putting woes.

There’s not a great deal of birdies to be had at this layout – remember, just six holes averaged under par in 2021, so key stats are Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, Bogey Avoidance and Scoring Average. 

It’s no coincidence that those metrics tend to identify the best players in the world anyway, and a top-ten in ’21 that featured four major champions – and ten players with at least one PGA TOUR title to their names – is confirmation of that.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Wells Fargo Championship  

Top Tier Pick #1

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 93.1, Salary: $10,500)

Although Rory will go off as the favorite this week on a happy hunting ground for him, his recent form suggests he can be swerved as the percentage play.

Instead, Patrick Cantlay looks primed to win given that he has finished inside the top-five in four of his last six strokeplay events, with a T14 at The Masters as one of the anomalies.

Long enough to thrive at Quail Hollow and with the classy tee-to-green game required, Cantlay makes stacks of birdies and particularly thrives in the 200-yard range of approach….can he finally get that long-awaited ‘W’ at a layout that should suit? 

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 2nd
• Scoring Average – 4th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 6th

Top Tier Pick #2

Cameron Young (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 81.1, Salary: $8,700)

It seems to be a matter of when, not if, Cameron Young will win a PGA TOUR title, and Quail Hollow seems as likely a venue as any for this prodigiously-talented driver of the golf ball.

Young can make hay on the Par 5s this week, with plenty of class inside 100 yards should he choose to lay up, and if he can iron out the mistakes that lead to bogeys then the world number 16 will surely go very close this week.

Although there’s some inconsistencies in his recent formline, Young does have top-10s to his name at The Masters and the Arnold Palmer Invitational – those are excellent launchpads for more this week.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 4th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 12th
• SG: Approach – 18th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 76.8, Salary: $8,500)

Although on paper not the most eye-catching of form lines, Tyrrell Hatton has followed his second-place finish with a top-20 at the RBC Heritage and T34 at The Masters, which might have been rather better but for a final round of 76.

So the Brit has enough good vibes in the tank to look forward to a trip to Quail Hollow, and his solid ball-striking should yield full reward from a layout that delivers to those that stay long and straight.

And player that ranks higher on TOUR for Scoring Average than Birdie Average is someone adept at keeping bogeys off their card, and that’s very much the order of the day at Quail Hollow – Hatton’s natural game appears to fit nicely.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 9th
• Scoring Average – 13th
• SG: Approach – 16th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Gary Woodland (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 56.6, Salary: $7,600)

When/if Gary Woodland finds something, anything with the flat stick, he, his fans and his bank manager will be very happy indeed.

He ranked seventh for SG: Tee-to-Green at the Mexico Open and 72nd for SG: Putting, which is very much par for the course for the former U.S. Open champion these days.

But the fact is that he continues to set up more birdie opportunities than most other players, and at a Quail Hollow course that penalizes those that aren’t precise and accurate, Woodland has to be given another chance of redemption on the greens.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 13th
• SG: Approach – 17th
• Greens in Regulation – 29th

Low-Tier Pick

Hayden Buckley (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 65.6, Salary: $7,400)

You won’t find many better drivers in world golf than Hayden Buckley.

Not only does he rank fourth on the PGA TOUR for SG: Off-the-Tee, but what’s more he finds 65% of fairways on average from a distance of 303 yards – that is elite stuff.

The good news is that his iron game has been in equally fine fettle of late, and better form on the greens has led to top-10 turns at the Texas Open and RBC Heritage.

When you put it all together, Buckley appears to be something of a bargain play this week. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 4th
• Scoring Average – 26th
• Approaches from 200-225 yards – 47th

Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.2, Salary: $7,000)

It’s hard not to be impressed by this young man, who it’s easy to forget doesn’t even have a PGA TOUR card to his name.

But Akshay Bhatia keeps getting invited to compete in these events off the back of his strong finishes, which have included solo second at the Puerto Rico Open and solo fourth last time out at the Mexico Open.

The 21-year-old takes a major step up in grade this week, of course, but he has the basic foundations for success at Quail Hollow – namely excellent tee-to-green ability and a willingness to grind out a score, which is rare in one so young.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 7th
• SG: Approach – 12th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 53rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship

Andrew Putnam (Odds: 180/1, FPPG: 67.0, Salary: $7,000)

What a difference a week makes.

Andrew Putnam was available at sportsbook odds of 40/1 for the Mexico Open, finished an okay T24 after ranking fourth for SG: Approach and now, a week later, he finds himself 180/1!

Of course, the field is much stronger this week, but we’re still able to draft a player in decent form at a throwaway price a matter of days after he continued his fine recent form.

With two top-30 finishes in his last three starts, Putnam is that rare beast of the bargain basement pick with recent form in the tank.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 12th
• Scrambling – 15th
• SG: Approach – 43rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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