Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Memorial Tournament

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Memorial Tournament  

Memorial Tournament Fantasy Preview

With just one win between them on the PGA TOUR in a combined 403 starts, it was always likely that one of Emiliano Grillo, Adam Schenk and Harry Hall – the main protagonists on Sunday at the Charles Schwab Challenge – was going to have to do things the hard way.

They played their back nines in level par, +1 and +3 respectively – closing out a win is hard, remember – but that was just about enough to land Grillo and Schenk a place in a playoff.

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Grillo was two shots clear heading into the final hole, but hit his drive into some running water that carried his ball back down the slope and almost back to the tee box. Calamitous.

The Argentine made a six, but watched with relish as Hall hit his drive on the 72nd hole into a pond.

And then, on the playoff, Schenk flew the green with his approach on the second extra hole, gifting Grillo victory – but only after his somewhat errant approach enjoyed a very helpful bounce from a bunker’s edge.

It was, at times, painful to watch. But Grillo won’t care – he’s now a two-time PGA TOUR champion.

Will the Memorial Tournament gives us such a titanic ending this week?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

With our best finish, Max Homa, coming in at T9 last week, we’ll admit it was definitely an “off-week” for us.   

No fear, we’ll pick up the slack for one of our favorite events of the year – and one we’ve had success at picking winners in the past.

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The Memorial Tournament Field

As one of the more challenging layouts on the PGA TOUR, Muirfield Village tends to attract a high-class field of players looking for a tune-up ahead of the U.S. Open in a fortnight’s time.

So that’s why Scottie Scheffler, whose relentless schedule of commitments continues, headlines a field that also includes Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and – to round out the top-five of the OWGR – Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay.

Billy Horschel, the defending champion, joins a field that also includes former Muirfield Village winners in Collin Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama, while a stack of recent victors on TOUR – Grillo, Wyndham Clark, Jason Day and co – will be looking to frank their good form.

This Week’s Course Preview

Muirfield Village is, undoubtedly, one of Jack Nicklaus’ best forays into golf course design – it even takes its name from the location of one of his famous British Open triumphs.

It’s hosted this event since 1976, with regular tweaks and renovations helping to retain its difficulty – winning scores of -13, -13 and -9 in recent years, posted by top-class fields, are evidence of its relative challenge. 

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It’s core defenses are length (7,533 yards for its Par 72), thick rough and small greens, which are typically firm and fast. Water is in play on 12 holes too, so there’s danger lurking amidst what can be a head-scratching assignment given the unique undulations and elevation changes.

Only five holes averaged under par last year and four of them were the Par 5s, with two of the three hardest holes coming at 17 and 18, where the birdie-to-bogey-or-worse ratio was around 1:4 in 2022. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over on the Sunday of the Memorial Tournament, that’s for sure.

The quality of the five most recent winners – Horschel, Cantlay (x2), Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau – confirms that only the very best have thrived at Muirfield Village, and the uplift of this tournament to designated status would suggest that pattern will continue this week.

Weather Forecast for Dublin, OH

The weather conditions look set to lend themselves to another firm and fast week at Muirfield Village.

Thursday gets us off to a warm and sunny start, with temperatures hitting 89 degrees on what is likely to be a rain and largely wind-free day at 7mph.

The conditions will remain largely the same for the rest of the tournament, with sunny spells and warm temperatures the dominant force. The wind could peak on Saturday at around 11mph.

DUBLIN WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Memorial Tournament

Billy Horschel made light work of Muirfield Village last year, recording a round of 65 on the Saturday and finishing as the only player on double-digits under par at -13.

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He got his week off to a steady start (70-68), romped through Saturday and then appeared to be tight on Sunday – a birdie-free front nine opening the door to the likes of Aaron Wise, Joaquin Niemann and Cantlay.

But a birdie on ten and a huge eagle putt on fifteen – on a day when chances to break par were few and far between – were enough for Horschel to secure a memorable four-shot victory over Wise.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Memorial Tournament this Week

We’re having to comb through a deep field of players this week, but having a strong sense of what it takes to be successful at Muirfield Village, we can draft our lineups with some confidence – and enter contests accordingly.

• PGA $350k Drive the Green: For $20, you can enter four different lineups into this contest to spread risk and minimize variance, while enjoying a chance to win an epic $50k top prize.

• PGA $75k Birdie: There’s a similar theme in this Birdie contest, although you’ll get even more bang for your buck with a $3 charge for each entry. There’s plenty of chances to win $100+ right up to the top payout of $7,500. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

In his playing days, Nicklaus was known as a metronomic ball-striker – one of the reasons that Muirfield Village is so iconic is that it rewards those who excel from tee-to-green as well.

Make no mistake: you’ll need to make some putts on these fast Bentgrass greens. But the edge is to be found prior to that, with five of the top-nine on the leaderboard last year ranking inside the top-10 for SG: Tee-to-Green. 

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The key is in long, straight hitting, with missed fairways not ideal given the nature of the rough here. The longer you drive, the shorter your approach – extra loft is always welcome into these fast, small greens.

There’s an emphasis on approaches from the 175 yard and longer range – particularly for those attacking the Par 5s, which remain almost exclusively as Muirfield’s only true scoreable holes.

And the last five individual winners at Muirfield Village have either been major champions or previously won the FedEx Cup – it’s no coincidence that thoroughbreds have prevailed here with such regularity.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Memorial Tournament   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Memorial Tournament  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 89.7, Salary: $10,500)

Patrick Cantlay has been threatening to deliver a winning performance for a long time now, so perhaps a return to one of his favorite hunting grounds will provide the catalyst to get him over the line.

A formline of 3-1-32-7-1-4 tells you all you need to know about his penchant for Muirfield Village, and while one of those victories was fortunate – Jon Rahm was forced to withdraw while streets ahead in 2021 due to a positive Covid test – that does nothing to detract from Cantlay’s love of ‘Jack’s place’.

He’s finished no lower than T21 in his last seven strokeplay starts, with a T9 and T14 at the PGA Championship and Masters a reminder of his prowess up against elite opposition. Crucially, those efforts have been underpinned by ball-striking excellence, so everything is in order for another fine Cantlay show in Ohio.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 4th
• Greens in Regulation – 5th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th

Top Tier Pick #2

Viktor Hovland (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 87.8, Salary: $9,700)

Although his record at Muirfield Village is mixed – one top-five finish in four visits, this is a layout that plays directly into Viktor Hovland’s strengths.

He’s tidy off the tee but still long enough to mix it with the big hitters, and he is – quite literally – one of the best iron and wedge players in the business.

The Norwegian parlayed a runners-up finish at the PGA Championship with a T16 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he was foiled by a final round of 73. Otherwise, Hovland’s game is in rude health. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 8th
• Scoring Average – 8th
• SG: Approach – 11th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Adam Scott (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 77.5, Salary: $8,000)

Although his formline isn’t as eye-catching as some in the field this week, things are certainly moving in the right direction for Adam Scott.

T5 at the Wells Fargo, where he would have rued a final round of 71, was followed by T8 at the AT&T Byron Nelson, and even a T29 effort at the PGA Championship adds another feather to Scott’s cap.

His ball-striking remains strong and his putting stroke has gained in reliability and consistency since the spring, so a player with a second, a fourth and a pair of top-20s at Muirfield Village in seven trips should be feeling pretty confident about his chances.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200+ yards – 5th
• Birdie Average – 10th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 19th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Kurt Kitayama (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 55.7, Salary: $7,400)

Kurt Kitayama proved he could mix it with the best around by winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this year, and his game shapes up nicely for a strong run at Muirfield Village too.

Although often errant off the tee, he showed that he can keep his ball in play when winning at Bay Hill and finishing T4 at the PGA Championship a fortnight ago, while his wedge and long iron game is of a high-class level.

He gained strokes on the field putting on the Bentgrass greens of Colonial last week, so there’s no reason why Kitayama can’t take another impressive showing with him to Ohio.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from Inside 100 yards – 20th
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 25th
• Scoring Average – 33rd

Low-Tier Pick

Stephan Jaeger (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 65.4, Salary: $7,000)

A regular in this column of late, Stephan Jaeger continues to come up with the goods for his backers.

Since missing the cut at the RBC Heritage, top-20s at the AT&T Byron Nelson and Mexico Open and a top-30 amongst quality opposition at the Wells Fargo Championship is excellent work from a low-tier pick, with those results built – for the most part – on a foundation of quality ball-striking.

Jaeger even bested the field from tee-to-green at the PGA Championship, where a weak putting week meant he would finish no higher than T50, but there’s still plenty of positives to be taken from that turn at Oak Hill.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 19th
• Scoring Average – 25th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 33rd

Sleeper Pick for the Memorial Tournament

Hayden Buckley (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 63.0, Salary: $7,000)

A missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge ended a fine spell of ball-striking from Hayden Buckley.

He’d gained strokes on the field off-the-tee and on approach in his prior four starts, which yielded T5 at the RBC Heritage, T10 at the Texas Open and T26 at the PGA Championship.

Buckley is one of the best drivers on the PGA TOUR – as proven by the stats, and that’s a skillset that comes in handy at a layout where Muirfield Village, where controlled length really is the order of the day.

Factor in improvements of late with iron and wedge in hand, and Buckley has broken the back of what is required to succeed at Muirfield.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 5th
• Greens in Regulation – 15th
• Scoring Average – 23rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Memorial Tournament

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 69.3, Salary: $6,500)

There’s that old saying that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Given that Akshay Bhatia’s continued over-performance, relative to his DFS salary, is based on his tremendous ball-striking prowess, we can have confidence in backing a rookie at such a technical layout as Muirfield Village.

He was outstanding in finishing fourth at the Mexico Open, and produced excellent tee-to-green efforts in making the cut at the Wells Fargo and Charles Schwab Challenge.

Evidently, Bhatia’s putting will need to improve if/when he makes the leap to the PGA TOUR full time, but for now the 21-year-old should be delighted with his progress – as should those that continue to draft him at bargain basement prices. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 15th
• Scoring Average – 18th
• Total Driving – 26th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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