Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 3M Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 3M Open  

3M Open Fantasy Preview

Golf, eh?

Just when you thought you’d seen it all, Brian Harman upends a career resumé that has brought him two PGA TOUR wins in 339 starts to deliver one of the most commanding British Open wins in history.

We had drafted the diminutive left-hander on our roster for the event, and yet even we were surprised by the nature in which Harman dominated the field. He asserted control on Friday and never looked back.

Indeed, many pundits thought he would perhaps display signs of nerves on Sunday in what was undoubtedly the biggest day of his golfing career. But after a couple of early bogeys, Harman would ultimately extend his lead to win by six. Take that, pundits.

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Not blessed with the greatest power from his 5ft 7in frame, Harman simply didn’t have the length to bring Royal Liverpool’s bunkers and other hazards into play – he serenely laid up while others all around him took out the big stick in a bid to force the issue. A lesson learned for many, perhaps.

With the final major of 2023 in the tank, attention now turns to the race for the FedEx Cup. This week’s 3M Open and next week’s Wyndham Championships are the last qualifying events via which players can sneak into the top-70 of the standings and contest the playoffs, culminating with the TOUR Championship from August 24-27. 

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

LET’S GO! The Brian Harman-Tom Kim combo is the 1-2 punch we needed for some major cash last week.   

If you’re new to the site, our team had Tom Kim as our TOP pick on the Tuesday Sleeper Report and Brian Harman as the Mid-Tier pick of the week in our main picks segment! 

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Along with five more Top 25 picks, we ended up swimming in some good fortune and we’re just heating up for the FedExCup Playoffs.

2023 3M Open Field

The 3M Open started a period of summer dominance for Tony Finau in 2022, and he returns in an attempt to defend his honor.

Cameron Young, who played in the final group at the British Open, will make a swift dash from England to tee it up in Minnesota this week, as will the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im and Sepp Straka.

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Justin Thomas, who is in danger of not even qualifying for the FedEx Cup playoffs, needs a big week at TPC Twin Cities, while at the other end of the golf joy spectrum Akshay Bhatia tees it up after claiming his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Barracuda Championship, and Ludvig Aberg looks to continue his assault on the professional ranks.

This Week’s Course Preview

A pretty long golf course at 7,431 yards (Par 71), there’s definitely an emphasis on length off the tee at TPC Twin Cities.

The fairways are pretty generous in size too, so it’s bombs away in Minnesota – albeit while minding your work given that water is in play on as many as 15 holes this week.

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The three Par 5s are in the vicinity of 600 yards, while a couple of the Par 4s play at over 500 yards, and with a 228-yard Par 3 on the real estate as well clearly distance is a primary factor at TPC Twin Cities.

The consolation is that the Bentgrass greens are also large in size, although undulations and different tiers requires accurate approach play at this Arnold Palmer by way of Tom Lehman designed layout.

Last year, only seven of the eighteen holes averaged under par, with the Par 5s at six and twelve the easiest available. But there’s some treachery here too, with the 502-yard Par 4 ninth providing a decent challenge and the 468-yard Par 4 second witnessing some 52 double bogeys or worse in 2022.

Weather Forecast for Blaine, MN

It’s sunscreen all the way in Blaine this week, with temperatures touching a sweat-inducing 96 degrees on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday look set to be the pick of the days, with sunny spells – albeit at around 87 degrees – and wind speeds settling in at around the 11mph mark.

Sunday could, according to the early forecast, see a spot of rain or two. Again, it’s a pretty warm day otherwise with the breeze at a manageable 10mph.

BLAINE WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the 3M Open

If you though Harman’s win at the British Open came out of left-field, that was nothing compared to Scott Piercy charging to the 54-hole lead at the 3M Open last year.

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Rounds of 65, 64 and 66 handed Piercy a colossal lead with just a round to play, but if we needed proof that winning is hard – Harman aside – then seven bogeys in his final eleven holes for Piercy is the case in point.

A queue of players formed to take advantage of the veteran’s fumblings, with Sungjae Im and Emiliano Grillo chief among them.

But in the end, it was Tony Finau who had the eye of the tiger, rattling in three consecutive birdies at 14-16 to claim what was at the time his third PGA TOUR title. He trailed Piercy by five with eleven holes to play, completing a remarkable comeback victory on the back nine.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the 3M Open this Week

There’s a lot to like about the 3M Open from a daily fantasy perspective, with a clear player profile to target. As such, maybe we can push the boat out somewhat with the contests that we enter.

• PGA $1M Summer Sand Trap: Here’s a return for the Summer Sand Trap contest, which for $25 entry pays a stack of big money prizes including $200k to the winner.

• PGA $350k Drive the Green: If $25 is a bit over-budget, you can enter one or a few lineups into this Drive the Green contest at $5 a go. With $50k to the winner and a host of other payouts, it could be a handsome decision.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Although all-sorts of players have appeared on the top page of the leaderboard at the 3M Open, the evidence that big hitters thrive at TPC Twin Cities is overwhelming.

In four hostings of this event, the trophy now has the names of Finau, Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff upon it, while the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Jhonattan Vegas, Louis Oosthuizen and Im have runner-up finishes here. 

The thread that runs through their games is controlled length off the tee, and the 2022 stats confirm as much. Of the first nine players home, seven averaged 300+ yard off the tee and four of them 310 or more, which in itself is instructive of what is required this week.

Of that nine, five finished inside the top-10 for the week for SG: Approach and seven of them found 75% GIR, so quality ball-striking all-round is very much the name of the game at TPC Twin Cities.

Stat fiends might also want to throw long-range putting and birdie-making prowess into the melting pot, but really our target profile is pretty straightforward this week: long hitters that have shown form in their approach play in recent weeks, and who are comfortable on Bentgrass greens, has to be the way to go.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 3M Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 3M Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Sungjae Im (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 70.9, Salary: $10,300)

We had earmarked Cameron Young as our power play for the 3M Open, but a fairly calamitous week for his short game at the British Open – he delivered a stunning ball-striking effort, but ranked dead last in the field for SG: Putting – has to prove off-putting, if you’ll pardon the pun.

It seems as though another of our shortlisted players, Hideki Matsuyama, has lost a bit of length this season – perhaps due to his injuries, who knows, so question marks about that duo send us on to Sungjae Im.

The Korean perhaps hasn’t been in the flush of his best form lately, but a top-20 turn at the British Open offers encouragement for one of the best drivers on the PGA TOUR.

A decent record at TPC Twin Cities – 2-15 in his two trips – and confirmed excellence on Bentgrass greens ticks a few more of the boxes, as does Im’s long-range putting prowess and love of a birdie fest.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 16th
• Approach Putt Performance – 20th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 23rd

Top Tier Pick #2

Cam Davis (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 55.0, Salary: $9,000)

We actually drafted Cam Davis in this slot in 2022, and a T16 finish was both somehow underwhelming and confirmation that this is a layout that suits his game.

Recent form has not been that kind to the Australian, but we can forgive a missed cut last time out in Scotland and instead focus on the positives shown at the Rocket Mortgage Classic – a gain on the field of +1.25 strokes on approach is fine form indeed.

A big hitter with a solid record on Bentgrass greens, Davis has a formline of 16-28-12 in his last three visits to TPC Twin Cities. That is evidence enough that there’s the potential for a big performance this week.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 19th
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 30th
• Birdie Average – 60th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 69.8, Salary: $7,700)

You have to applaud the excellence of Akshay Bhatia in turning temporary membership of the PGA TOUR into full-time residence.

He’s made 13/18 cuts this season, with top-fives in Puerto Rico and Mexico followed by a top-10 at the Barbasol and last week’s victory at the Barracuda Championship.

It’s possible that Bhatia will celebrate that win with gusto and turn up at TPC Twin Cities under-cooked, but the 21-year-old will surely recognize the opportunity available to him this week and, without the pressures of worrying about the FedEx Cup standings, deliver another high-quality ball-striking performance.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 14th
• Birdie Average – 18th
• SG: Approach – 20th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Will Gordon (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 62.0, Salary: $7,100)

Given that he has a pretty weak short game, it’s little surprise that Will Gordon’s form can be described as inconsistent at best.

But in his recent rear view mirror he’s delivered excellent ball-striking efforts at the Scottish Open and Canadian Open, where he finished in the top-25 of both, and as a player that thrives on extra room off the tee that is nice lead-in form for Gordon this week.

A crusher off the tee that has shown some class in his approach play of late, the hope is that the gamble on Gordon pays off.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 8th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 21st
• Birdie Average – 26th

Low-Tier Pick

Kevin Yu (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 69.4, Salary: $7,100)

Even though he’s still so young in his PGA TOUR career, Kevin Yu has built a reputation as a premium ball-striker with little short game to speak of.

Imagine our surprise then when he romped to T6 at the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago….having gained +1.81 strokes on the field putting on the Bentgrass greens of TPC Deere Run.

A look at his season-long statistics would suggest that’s an almighty anomaly, but even so Yu will surely have taken confidence from that effort. If he can combine his normally excellent tee and approach game with more reliability on the greens, he can very quickly climb the ladder on the PGA TOUR.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th
• Birdie Average – 17th

Sleeper Pick for the 3M Open

Davis Thompson (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 58.4, Salary: $7,100)

It seems like a lifetime ago since Davis Thompson was duking out with Jon Rahm at the American Express – posting a score of -26 but still tasting defeat to the Spaniard.

The rookie hasn’t quite kicked on from there, although there are signs of life with four of his last six rounds played being 68s or lower.

The 24-year-old is very much a bomb-and-gouge player, but that’s a strategy that can have some success at TPC Twin Cities – a hot putter, with +1.05 strokes gained putting on the Bentgrass of TPC Deere Run, adds to Thompson’s appeal this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 11th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 23rd
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 31st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 3M Open

Trevor Cone (Odds: 350/1, FPPG: 52.4, Salary: $6,800)

If you’re going to take an absolute flyer on a sleeper pick, make sure it’s a guy with some recent form in the ledger.

Trevor Cone finished T3 at the Barbasol Championship as the quality of his approach play finally matched up to his prodigious length off the tee.

The 30-year-old is striking the ball better now than at any other point in the season, and while golf very much isn’t a 2 +2 = 4 type sport, one of the biggest hitters on the PGA TOUR heads to a roomy TPC Twin Cities with a spring in his step.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 5th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 13th
• Approach Putt Performance – 49th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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