Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2023 TOUR Championship

2023 TOUR Championship Fantasy Sleeper Report

The Boomtown Rats sang ‘I Don’t Like Mondays’, with Viktor Hovland’s karaoke song of choice being ‘I Don’t Like Sundays’ given his final-round scoring woes this season.

Despite being a winner on TOUR this term, the Norwegian ranks 133rd for Final Round Scoring Average – hardly a helping hand in winning tournaments.

Hovland admitted that he and caddie Shay Knight had had stern words about that very fact – so fast forward to the Sunday just gone at the BMW Championship, where Hovland carded 61 (including a back nine of 28) to leapfrog the field and land the title by two shots from Matt Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler.

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As well as a fifth PGA TOUR title, Hovland has also propelled himself up to second place in the FedEx Cup standings, which means he will take a two-shot deficit to Scheffler into the TOUR Championship this week.

This is how that leaderboard will shape up:

• -10 – Scottie Scheffler
• -8 – Viktor Hovland
• -7 – Rory McIlroy
• -6 – Jon Rahm
• -5 – Lucas Glover
• -4 – Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick
• -3 – Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
• -2 – Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si-Woo Kim
• -1 – Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day
• E – Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka

So the question for bettors is who can haul in Scheffler at East Lake? It might sound as if giving the best ball-striker on the planet is a fool’s errand, but the same thing happened last year – where Scottie was unable to capitalize on his advantage.

Instead Rory McIlroy, with a strokeplay score of -17, would lift the FedEx Cup trophy from a starting position of T6 on the leaderboard – that shows the possibilities that bettors should be aware of this week.

In a tale that is becoming increasingly told, Scheffler’s flat stick was ice cold at East Lake 12 months ago – a problem that continues to cost him titles to this day. There’s no doubt that he’s the best and most consistent player in world golf from tee to green, but if you can’t convert your birdie opportunities with your putter in hand then top-level golf becomes so much harder accordingly. 

At least Scheffler’s ball-striking will hand him an edge at East Lake, where Tom Bendelow – followed by renovation work from Donald Ross and Rees Jones – created a golf course of sublime fairness that rewards those of exceptional approach play in particular.

The greens are the key at East Lake – small in stature and running at a fast pace (even more so given the red-hot temperatures expected in Atlanta this week), these surfaces are well protected by sand and other gremlins, including tightly mown run-offs and contours which spit out anything other than accurate irons and wedges.

So if players that are long and accurate off the tee and outstanding on approach are the go-to this week, how are we going to bet on them? Your chosen sportsbook will probably be running two betting markets – the standard TOUR Championship leaderboard, as well as a pure strokeplay leaderboard (i.e. from a scratch level par start as normal). 

Both of these offer opportunities, so here’s our TOUR Championship 2023 sleeper shortlist with selections from both.

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Lucas Glover – 50/1 – Our first two bets this week are in the 72-hole strokeplay market – as mentioned, your sportsbook will reimagine the leaderboard as if everyone starts on level par as standard.

On which note, Lucas Glover seems a sensible play given his recent form, which includes those back-to-back wins at the Wyndham and St. Jude Championships plus another solid ball-striking show at the BMW Championship last time out.

With talks of Ryder Cup places ongoing, Glover can blow the likes of Justin Thomas out of the water with another strong performance this week.

Tony Finau – 50/1 – As for Tony Finau, he’s now something of an outsider to be selected for the U.S. Ryder Cup roster.

That will hurt, so there’s no time like the present for Finau to give Zach Johnson a friendly reminder of his talents.

Because he is super talented, as we know, and a decent fit for East Lake given that he’s long enough and accurate enough to gain an edge on many in the field. Now’s the time for Tony to prove it once more….

Rickie Fowler – 60/1 – If your sportsbook offers the option to place each way bets, they will probably be offering four places this week – at last year’s TOUR Championship, a score of -18 or better would have been good enough to secure a payout.

There’s pressure on those starting with a lower handicap then, but it’s not impossible that one or more players starting on -3 could put low numbers on the board and get into that conversation.

Of the group, Rickie Fowler seems as likely as anyone. He’s gained strokes on the field with his ball-striking in eight of his last nine starts, which is a spell that includes victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and T5 at the U.S. Open.

With his cold putter heating up in the final round at the BMW Championship, Fowler seems primed to strike while the iron is hot this week.

Tommy Fleetwood – 60/1 – As above, so below. Fleetwood is another player starting at -3 that can strike an each way return for his backers.

The central component to the Brit’s game is that he doesn’t make many mistakes from tee-to-green – evidenced by ball-striking gains in five of his last six starts. Even when he does miss, Fleetwood’s scrambling and chipping is excellent.

In his last seven starts, Fleetwood has banked five top-10s – that is confidence and consistency personified.

Russell Henley – 80/1 – Our final selection also comes within the standard sportsbook market but with those each way places paid.

Russell Henley won’t want the season to end such is his heater. T2 at the Wyndham Championship, he’s followed up with top-10s at the St. Jude and BMW Championship – the latter courtesy of an exceptional final round of 63.

The idea during the FedEx Cup playoff events is just to keep on trucking, and with confidence coursing through his veins Henley will be thinking he can gatecrash the upper reaches of the leaderboard this week.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the TOUR Championship here.

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