Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 TOUR Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 TOUR Championship  

TOUR Championship Fantasy Preview

Talk about seizing the moment.

The fourth round of a PGA TOUR event is as good a time as any to smash a course record, and it was Viktor Hovland’s 61 on Sunday at Olympia Fields that would ultimately land him the BMW Championship title.

The Norwegian just had one of those days that we all dream of – he gained +3.00 strokes on the field on approach and +3.02 on the greens….Scottie Scheffler, who looked the most likely winner heading into the final round, lost -1.44 putting, and that’s all she wrote.

Hovland now has a great chance of winning the FedEx Cup too, with his win at the BMW propelling up the standings from seventh to second – he’ll start two strokes behind Scheffler in this week’s seasonal curtain call at the TOUR Championship.

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Otherwise, it’s the same top-30 that headed into the BMW Championship that will contest the TOUR Championship, albeit with one exception – Matt Fitzpatrick’s T2 at Olympia Fields seeing him jump from 40 to 10 in the standings, with Chris Kirk the only previous member of the big 30 to miss out on a trip to East Lake.

So it’s all aboard the final tournament of the 2022-23 season: the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Back-to-back winners picked – and at the right time too!

Last week we cashed in with Glover, and this past weekend we had Hovland as our second Top Tier pick! Needless to say we’re pretty confident it’s going to be a three-peat for our fantasy gurus heading into this reduced field of 30. 

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Along with Hovland, we had Rory (4) and three other picks Top-15 or better.

2023 TOUR Championship Field

For the uninitiated, the TOUR Championship has a kind of handicapped leaderboard based upon each player’s performance during the season.

So, Scottie Scheffler – who ‘til now has won the most FedEx Cup points – is ranked first, and he will start the event with a score of -10. Hovland, in second place in the FedEx Cup standings, will start on -8. And so on….

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The question is can anybody rein in Scheffler’s lead? Here’s how the TOUR Championship leaderboard looks before the first tee:

• -10 – Scottie Scheffler
• -8 – Viktor Hovland
• -7 – Rory McIlroy
• -6 – Jon Rahm
• -5 – Lucas Glover
• -4 – Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick
• -3 – Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
• -2 – Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Si-Woo Kim
• -1 – Taylor Moore, Nick Taylor, Adam Schenk, Collin Morikawa, Jason Day
• E – Sam Burns, Emiliano Grillo, Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s a fitting finale for the campaign at East Lake this week.

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This is a major-level venue that simply doesn’t get to host majors due to its TOUR Championship designation, although it did welcome the Ryder Cup in 1963 and the U.S. Amateur in 2001.

Originally designed by Tom Bendelow more than a century ago, the likes of Donald Ross and Rees Jones have gotten their hands on East Lake since – enhancing the challenge it poses even to the modern player.

Measuring 7,346 yards for its Par 70, this is a long stretch with tree-lined and bunker heavy fairways, although the landing zones are of average width off the tee.

East Lake is often described as a ‘second shot’ course, and that’s because of the need to hit laser-like approaches into relatively small greens – these are protected by cruel run-offs and dumping grounds, so percentage play is key….flag hunters may well come unstuck if they are a fraction off-line with their woods, irons and wedges.

The Bermuda greens should run as slick as they come – 12 on the stimp is the bare minimum, but all told the devil in the detail at East Lake is that all-important second shot, because there are birdies to be made at this stretch….Rory made 23 of them, the best of the week, on his way to the title and FedEx Cup trophy last year.

Weather Forecast for Atlanta, GA

It rained cats and dogs in Atlanta at this time last year, but this week’s forecast could not be any different.

It looks set to be sunny all week along and super-hot – temperatures of 98 degrees would bring sweat to the brow of even the most Arctic of individuals. Even the respite, for want of a better word, of 89 degrees on Sunday remains formidably warm.

And that really is the headline of this week’s early weather predictions for Atlanta. Sunshine and relatively slight winds – 8-10mph being the worst breeze to be faced, reveals a week that will sap the strength of even the hardiest of souls….

ATLANTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the TOUR Championship

In what he will be hoping isn’t a mirror image of what happens in 2023, Scheffler witnessed his pre-tournament lead eviscerated by the end of the TOUR Championship.

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And yet it had all started so well: his opening round of -5 bettered only by Matt Fitzpatrick and Joaquin Niemann.

But the wheels came off in typically Scheffler fashion from there: despite gaining stacks of shots on the field with his ball-striking, he was missing putts and leaving the door ajar for others – come Sunday, all departments of his game had gone to the woodshed in a final round of 73.

That left the door ajar for others, and stepping through was Rory McIlroy, who gave Scheffler a six-shot headstart prior to the tournament starting. But the Irishman carved out a pair of opening 67s before setting light to the weekend – rounds of -7 and -4 enough to hold off Sungae Im and Scheffler, who by virtue of his headstart was still able to crawl home in T2.

The pick of the strokeplay scores were: Rory (-17), Im (-16), Max Homa (-15), Justin Thomas (14), Tom Hoge (-13). 

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the TOUR Championship this Week

There’s no other way to say it: the TOUR Championship is far from ideal for savvy DFS gamers. But what we can do is try our luck in single-entry contests – that increases the skill element and prevents whales from simply stacking dozens of different lineups and bullying their way to the prizes.

• GOLF TOUR $200K Mega Leaderboard Special: If you’ve got a full season of winnings to play with, this $40 entry game features the single-entry requirement plus a $50k bounty for first place, with a host of other sizable prizes up for grabs. 

• GOLF TOUR $40K Mega Leaderboard Special: If you’re running a tighter budget, this $6 entry game still features a rather handy $5k top prize and a relatively small field of 7,843 teams to compete against.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Given the roasting weather forecast for Atlanta, it will be interesting to see how much water the course officials can get onto the greens – enough to prevent them from running like lightning?

The premium on accurate approach shots will be even more vital if the putting surfaces run hard and fast, while approaching from closer distance – ensuring more loft and a softer landing – should also hand an edge to those with controlled length off the tee.

The pre-off leaderboard is also a factor to consider – given the heat and the toughness of conditions, will those guys at the bottom of the standings really dig deep with very little to play for and a handsome payday already secured? For those out of the running for a Ryder Cup berth, or for whom one is already secure, it seems unlikely.

As for correlating courses, you don’t have to look too far for comps. Olympia Fields, home of last week’s BMW Championship, is itself a long Par 70 with tree-lined fairways and small greens, while TPC Southwind – the host of the various incarnations of the St Jude Championship over the years – is another with well-protected greens where scoring opportunities are few and far between.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the TOUR Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the TOUR Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Viktor Hovland (Odds: 5/1, FPPG: 88.3, Salary: $12,500)

Will lightning strike twice for Scottie Scheffler?

He threw away the same two-shot lead as he’ll have this week at last year’s edition of the TOUR Championship, and you wonder if the pressure of being the hunted, rather than the hunter, is even too much for the best in the business to bear.

Viktor Hovland was the only player to go toe-to-toe with Scheffler as far as ball-striking was concerned at the BMW Championship, and the cost savings of not drafting Scheffler or Rory allows you to have three players on our roster that are within six shots of the lead from the get-go – vital in spreading risk and increasing our chances of having the winner on board.

Hovland’s supreme ball-striking will surely come in handy at East Lake, where he finished T4 in the strokeplay scoring in 2021. 

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 7th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 8th
• SG: Approach – 12th

Top Tier Pick #2

Max Homa (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 79.9, Salary: $10,900)

Although Hovland would ultimately usurp him, Max Homa had initially broken the course record at Olympia Fields on Friday with a sublime 62.

He lost the plot a bit on Saturday with a 71, but full credit to Homa who rallied on Sunday to post a 68 and tie for a share of fifth place.

According to our data, this was the third time in the last eight weeks that Homa has been amongst the cream of the crop as far as ball-striking is concerned, which when allied to the fact he shot -15 at East Lake last year – just two shots behind the champion Rory – should ensure his juices are flowing.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 10th
• Scrambling – 19th
• SG: Approach – 21st

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Wyndham Clark (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 75.4, Salary: $9,100)

If East Lake plays as firm and as fast as we expect it to this week, length off the tee really could be a huge advantage – the bombers will be hitting fluffy wedges into play of these small greens, which is much more advantageous than mid-range irons.

Whether Wyndham Clark is the man to take advantage of that remains to be seen, but he certainly comes in with the pedigree of a potential FedEx Cup champion – and the length required.

But for a below-par second round of 71, he would have finished top-10 at the BMW Championship, so his game is evidently thereabouts and recaptures his best form from a breakout season in which he has won a maiden PGA TOUR title and then become a major champion too.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 9th
• Bogey Avoidance – 30th
• SG: Approach – 33rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Tom Kim (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 72.0, Salary: $7,900)

What a curious four days it was for Tom Kim at the BMW Championship.

He opened up 72-72, which effectively ended his chances of achieving anything meaningful at the tournament, but still had the wherewithal to shoot 66-63 over the weekend – a score of -11, which when you consider Hovland won with -17 is no mean feat indeed.

Kim gained more than three strokes on the field from tee-to-green on Sunday, and his all-round game should be well suited to the various demands placed upon it by East Lake.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 10th
• Bogey Avoidance – 14th
• Total Driving – 24th

Low-Tier Pick

Sam Burns (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 63.0, Salary: $6,100)

There hasn’t been many times in recent memory when the race to make the U.S. Ryder Cup team has gone down to the wire like this.

Will captain Zach Johnson take a punt on Justin Thomas or try his luck with a slow-and-steady sort like Lucas Glover?

There’s a potential Plan C in the form of Sam Burns, a proven winner on the PGA TOUR who, when at his best, is able to hang with anyone in world golf.

That form has largely been in short supply at times this season, but T14 at the Wyndham Championship – plus a record-equalling round of 62 on Saturday at Olympia Fields – tells us that Burns is starting to feel his way back to some serious form.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 11th
• Driving Distance – 20th
• Scoring Average – 37th

Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship

Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 500/1, FPPG: 64.6, Salary: $5,700)

It’s the nature of the beast when playing daily fantasy for the TOUR Championship that you’re going to have to draft players that don’t have a shot at winning the event.

But they have 72 holes to climb up the leaderboard, and that’s what we expect Emiliano Grillo to do given that his accurate ball-striking is ideal for a venue like East Lake.

The Argentine has been impressive since the start of summer, winning the Charles Schwab Challenge, banking a top-10 at the British Open and following up with T10 at the 3M Open.

Long enough, straight enough and with quality on approach from a variety of yardages, Grillo can saunter up the leaderboard this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 42nd
• Total Driving – 45th
• SG: Approach – 48th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the TOUR Championship

Sepp Straka (Odds: 600/1, FPPG: 60.2, Salary: $5,400)

Although his Ryder Cup place is all but assured, you would think, Sepp Straka will still want to finish the season on a high.

We mentioned a possible correlation between East Lake and TPC Southwind earlier – Straka lost in a playoff at the latter in 2022, and his run to T7 at East Lake year adds further fuel to the fire.

Accurate off the tee and quality on approach, the Austrian will have an edge on some in this field with regards to the ball-striking required at this venue, and the fact that he saves many of his best displays for Bermuda greens is also encouraging too.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 17th
• Total Driving – 20th
• Total Birdies – 41st

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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