Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 ZOZO Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 ZOZO Championship  

ZOZO Championship Fantasy Preview

They say in life that timing is everything.

So when Ludvig Aberg shot a round of 62 at the Shriners Children’s Open on Sunday, the young phenom knew that he had left his title charge too late.

Tom Kim, on the other hand, fired his 62 on Saturday – powering his way up the leaderboard and sharing the 54-hole lead as a result.

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On a chaotic Sunday, at least ten players found themselves within one shot of the lead at various times, with Kim himself opening the door with back-to-back bogeys at five and six.

But the Korean seems to have a maturity beyond his 21 years, and after steadying the ship around the turn he pressed the turbo boost button the back nine – birdieing 12, 13 and 15 to lay the foundations for a one-shot win over Adam Hadwin.

Kim, in the process, became the youngest player to reach three PGA TOUR titles since Tiger Woods….and he went on to have a pretty good career, by all accounts.

The TOUR now begins an overseas jaunt that takes in trips to Japan, Mexico and Bermuda; first stop, the ZOZO Championship in Chiba.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week in Vegas, our top pick up was JT Poston who ended up finishing T3. 

Overall, we had only three missed cuts out of our 12 picks, and Joel Dahmen also came out with a strong T7 finish. 

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2023 ZOZO Championship Field

It’s an eclectic band of brothers that will tee it up at the Narashino Country Club.

Keegan Bradley enjoyed a fine time of things after winning this title 12 months ago, and he will return to defend his honor against a rather talented bunch with familial roots in Japan – Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler and Collin Morikawa among them.

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Hideki Matsuyama, whose 2021 victory in this event was met with rapturous acclaim in his homeland, will be hoping for a repeat of that, while recent winners around the globe Sahith Theegala and Min-Woo Lee also have a taste for silverware.

The ZOZO Championship is a no-cut event with a field of around 80, pending any withdrawals, with some of the most talented players from Japan locking horns with PGA TOUR regulars seeking to continue their Fall Series momentum.

This Week’s Course Preview

Like many golf courses in Asia, Narashino has adopted a classic American parklands to shape a track that is stunningly timeless.

This is a tight, cramped tree-lined layout measuring just over 7,000 yards for its Par 70 routing, although unusually the players will have five Par 3s and three Par 5s to work with.

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There’s no way to bomb around Narashino, with svelte fairways – some of which are doglegging – placing the emphasis on placement over power. And while water is only realistically in play on four holes, the Bentgrass greens, some of which are small in stature, are well protected by sand and their own unique undulations. 

There’s an unsurprising trend to the Par 4s, with those measuring less than 410 yards – of which there’s three – playing the easiest and the longer stretches, with three at 490 yards or more, as the hardest. As for the simplest hole on the course, that’s the eighteenth; a Par 5 where making a birdie is almost a given.

If golfing curiosities are your thing, how about this: each of Narashino’s holes has two greens. If a player hits their ball onto the wrong one, i.e. not the target green, they are allowed a free drop!

Weather Forecast for Chiba, JPN

If the players are cursing the thick tree-lines when they find themselves out of position, they will still feel grateful to have the shelter when some strong winds hit Chiba on Friday.

The forecast suggests a breeze of 18mph – with gusts of up to 30mph – will hit during the second round, which will surely be of consequence.

However, the temperatures remain up at around 75 degrees, and the predictions for the rest of the tournament are pretty good too. Thursday should see lower winds, sunny spells and temperatures of around 75 degrees, before the weekend settles into a pattern of minimal wind but a cooler feel – the mercury will sink to around 64 degrees.

CHIBA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the ZOZO Championship

There was heartbreak for Rickie Fowler at a tournament he would love to win 12 months ago.

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His grandfather is Japanese and he has at least one tattoo of Japanese text about his person, and after 54 holes of the 2022 ZOZO Championship it looked as if Fowler would have another permanent memento of his love for the country.

But a final round of 70, which featured just two birdies, saw Fowler’s 54-hole lead eroded and his chance of a long-awaited PGA TOUR title eroded. 

Into the breach stepped Keegan Bradley, whose 66-65-66 opening was strong enough to keep him in the hunt. He was also seeking to end a trophy drought, and showed a little more composure in the Sunday spotlight – his 68, which featured just two bogeys on the closing stretch, was enough to secure a one-shot win ahead of Fowler and Andrew Putnam.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the ZOZO Championship this Week

You know the drill by now: small field, no cut events are not where smart DFS gamers can leverage their advantage, with whales and big budget players simply able to bulldoze the prize pools by playing as many different lineups as possible.

That said, the single entry games still offer stacks of potential….

• PGA $15k Dogleg: It costs $33 to enter this contest, but you’ll benefit from a smaller field of competitors (just 530 teams allowed) and a prize pool of $15k to claim. 

• PGA $8k Caddie: If you’re operating with a tighter bankroll, here’s a $5 single entry game that offers payouts of the sort that will help to bolster your balance for the more edifying DFS contests to come in the next few weeks.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

With the PGA TOUR’s stat gurus not packing up their ShotLink equipment for this leg of the overseas jolly, we’re somewhat in the dark when compiling our fantasy notes.

Just watching the coverage, the eye test confirms that Narashiro is a club-down kinda course, with tight fairways and sharp doglegs cutting off the angles for the bombers to thrive – indeed, only two of the top-10 here last year averaged over 300 yards off the tee.

When wet, the rough can be tricky to extricate from, but when the conditions are dry – as it has been this week in Chiba – it’s much easier. In fact, the average GIR count was about 20% than that of driving accuracy 12 months ago.

Although there’s some easy holes on the real estate, birdies are still at a premium, so drafting those able to keep bogeys off their card – while making hay on the scorable stretches – is key.

And the identity of the players at the top of ZOZO Championship leaderboards at Narashiro in years past – Bradley, Fowler, Matsuyama, Brendan Steele – is confirmation that straight-shooters and accurate types are the way to go this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the ZOZO Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the ZOZO Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 85.5, Salary: $11,100)

With Japanese familial links on his mother’s side, Xander Schauffele gets plenty of support whenever he tees it up in the country.

He has spoken plenty about his joy at winning the Olympic Games gold medal in Japan back in 2021, and with two top-10s in three visits to Narashino he evidently loves playing his golf in the country.

Although he hasn’t been busy of late, Schauffele did follow a top-20 at the British Open with a sublime second place at the TOUR Championship, where he carded rounds of 62 and 64. 

Schauffele is somebody that has thrived on classical golf courses in the past – three top-10s in the past five years at Augusta National is one clue to that, so if he has been working hard on his game during his time off then this talented all-rounder can surely go well at Narashino once again.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 4th
• SG: Putting – 4th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 9th

Top Tier Pick #2

Cam Davis (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 59.5, Salary: $9,500)

Of course, many of the PGA TOUR’s top guns are enjoying some well-earned time off right now.

But of the players who have regularly been in action of late, few can match the formline of Cam Davis – five top-10s in his last six outings would take some beating, that’s for sure.

The key now for the Australian is to contend more forcibly for a trophy, and a layout like Narashino – which will reward his outstanding ball-striking – may just be the place.

Quality through the bag and with birdies seemingly on tap, Davis looks primed to challenge for the title this week.

Key Stats:

• Fairway Proximity – 7th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 24th
• Birdie Average – 29th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Adam Svensson (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 62.5, Salary: $8,200)

Like Davis, Adam Svensson is taking advantage of the absence of the PGA TOUR’s elite players by racking up some handsome paydays of late.

Four top-20 turns have come the Canadian’s way in his past five outings, with a buffet of quality ball-striking the root cause – as regular readers know, that’s the peg on which we like to hang our hat when it comes to roster selection.

Historically, Svensson has travelled well with a victory to his name in the Bahamas and a T7 at the Sony Open – let’s hope a jaunt further afield can deliver similarly good results.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 3rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 43rd
• SG: Putting – 51st

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Nick Taylor (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 59.8, Salary: $7,300)

It’s always fascinating to see how a player fares after making it all the way to the TOUR Championship.

That performance marks them down as one of the best 40 or 50 players on the planet, realistically, so that should put a spring in the step of Nick Taylor for the rest of 2023 and into next year.

The Canadian returned after a hiatus with a T13 finish at the Shriners – a handy way to shake off the cobwebs. The stats and the world rankings suggest he’s a better golfer than more than a handful of those above him in the salary listing this week, which suggests that $7,300 can be considered as something of a bargain.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 26th
• Proximity to Hole – 30th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 47th

Low-Tier Pick

Ryo Hisatsune (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 67.6, Salary: $7,200)

Although many pundits are proclaiming Keita Nakajima as the next big thing in Japanese golf, the credentials of Ryo Hisatsune are also hard to ignore.

The 21-year-old has shuttled between the Japan Golf Tour and DP World Tour thus far, and after going close on home soil he clinched his first senior title at the latter’s Open de France just a matter of weeks ago – besting a field that included the likes of Tom Kim, Billy Horschel and Thomas Detry.

T12 in this event a year ago, a repeat of that would be a huge success for Hisatsune himself and those that draft him at this low salary.

Key Stats:

• N/A

Sleeper Pick for the ZOZO Championship

Sam Ryder (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 56.6, Salary: $7,000)

Given how outstanding his approach play has been of late, Sam Ryder might be a little miffed that T7 at the 3M Open is the best return from his efforts.

But he’ll get another chance to show off his accurate hitting this week, and the classical style of Narashino may just hand Ryder an edge over some of the more errant sorts in this field.

Exotic climes like Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico have delivered some of the best paydays of Ryder’s career, so we can have confidence that his high level of play will continue this week despite the change in conditions.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 12th
• Birdie Average – 19th
• SG: Approach – 26th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the ZOZO Championship

Keita Nakajima (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 51.9, Salary: $6,800)

In the years ahead, we may laugh as we look back at the days we were able to draft Keita Nakajima for $6,800.

The Japanese ace boasts the record for the longest period as the number one ranked amateur – 87 weeks, to be precise, and since turning professional in June he was won twice on the Japan Golf Tour.

How far he goes in the sport only time will tell, but with a T12 finish in this tournament back in 2022, at least we know Nakajima has the game and the eye for the course that can yield an excellent return for those that back him this week.

Key Stats:

• N/A

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2023-2024)

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