Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches  

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Fantasy Preview

Hit it miles off the tee, knock your approaches close and make some putts – the recipe for success at Vidanta, home of the Mexico Open, requires little in the way of introduction.

So step forward Jake Knapp, who ranked first for Driving Distance and SG: Approach through 54 holes, and who had also topped the charts for SG: Putting in that crucial third round when scoreboard pressure might have told.

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Knapp, a former nightclub bouncer, was dancing with delight himself on Sunday, overcoming the nerves that beset PGA TOUR maidens to land his first senior-level win on any tour, holding off the valiant Sami Valimaki in the process – who we had on our sleeper report.

We’d drafted the Californian to our Phoenix Open lineup, where he did okay, so it’s fair to say we were sleeping then Knapp time came around in Mexico. Frustrating.

Still, onwards and upwards we must march. It’s the first event of the Florida Swing this week, with the (artist formerly known as Honda) Cognizant Classic.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week we had three Top 10 finishers including our far-reach sleeper pick Sami Valimaki who finished in solo 2nd!  

2024 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Field

Rory McIlroy leads the way as he returns to PGA National for the first time since 2018 – this is a tournament he won back in 2012.

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There’s quality behind in the shape of Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young and Tom Kim, as well as those with history at this venue – good memories for Sepp Straka, Russell Henley and Sungjae Im, not so much for Shane Lowry and Eric Cole, who came so close to winning this event in years past.

J.T. Poston, Min-Woo Lee, Byeong Hun An and Daniel Berger are just some of the other names that jump off the page in what is a pretty disappointing start to the Florida campaign.

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s a challenge all the way at PGA National, where water is genuinely in play on 14 holes and generous bunkering adds to the mystique.

Factor in the potential for a fierce Floridan wind, and you can see why winning scores here have been between -6 and -14 over the past four years.

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Jack Nicklaus and Tom Fazio have been the key drivers overseeing design and build work over the years, with a desire to keep the difficulty level up seeing this stretch host PGA Championships and Ryder Cups.

Nicklaus lends his nickname to the trio of holes known as the ‘Bear Trap’, which run from 15-17, and while iconic in their own right they didn’t even play as PGA National’s toughest in 2023.

Instead, that honor is bestowed upon the sixth and fourteenth – both mid-distance Par 4s but with devilish tee shots and hazards lurking all over the place; the birdie-to-bogey ratio was around 1:3 here last year.

A Par 70 measuring 7,158 yards, two Par 5s and the near-drivable Par 4 first hole act as light relief for the players – this is a tight and testing layout where keeping your ball on a string, and minimizing costly mistakes, is the order of the day.

Weather Forecast for Palm Beach Gardens, FL

It’s warm and windy in Palm Beach this week – with the added possibility of some rain on Sunday.

The lead-up days are expected to be dry and breezy, which should leave the course in fine – if not fast and firm – condition come the first tee. Thursday will see 9mph winds and a top temperature of 78 degrees, which is pretty much consistent across the entire four days.

The wind picks up on Friday to the 13mph mark and again to 14mph on Saturday, before Sunday appears as the exception to the rule – according to the early forecasts, the breeze could drop to 6mph and there could be some rain around to slow up the conditions, too.

Last Year’s Results from the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Chris Kirk brought to an end almost eight years of waiting for a PGA TOUR title at the Honda Classic in 2023.

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His backers were no doubt feeling less bullish after the first round, where he found himself T27, but an outstanding 62 on Friday – for context, only four other players went lower than 65 – set up Kirk’s title bid.

He was equally as solid on Saturday, setting up a two shot, 54-hole lead over Eric Cole.

It would all come down to the final hole, as the playing partners tackled a Par 5 that was playing tougher on the Sunday than at any other point during the week. Kirk made bogey after making a hash of his drive and approach, leaving Cole with a birdie putt to win a maiden PGA TOUR title.

He missed, agonizingly, to throw the tournament to a playoff. This time, Kirk would not make the same mistakes as he stiffed his approach shot, tucked home his birdie putt and set forth one of the most emotional victories – given the hardships he has faced – in recent memory.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches this Week

The unpredictable nature of PGA National perhaps doesn’t lend itself to assured DFS gaming, but at the same time such variance can be a gift if we’re able to get the right players on side.

If we can, these contests look ripe for the picking:

• PGA $300k Drive the Green: Keeping a tight rein on your bankroll will be just as important as the players keeping their ball under control this week, so dip into this $5 contest where, who knows, you could walk away with the $50k top prize.

• PGA $70k Birdie: Carrying a longlist of players, and mixing and matching them across multiple lineups, is arguably the smart play at PGA National. You can do that in this $3 entry game, where there’s still a handy $6,000 going to the winner. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

It’s quite the puzzle to solve at PGA National this week.

You’ve got thoroughbred drivers of a golf ball (McIlroy, Adam Scott, Keith Mitchell) in the winners’ circle here alongside the rather shorter and more nuggety Russell Henley, Sepp Straka and even Kirk, with bombers and pure putt merchants also figuring on the top page of the leaderboard.

It’s not a simple equation to fathom then, but history tells us you have to be darn good to win here with McIlroy and Scott joined in the PGA National champions club by Padraig Harrington, Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler, with the likes of Brooks Koepka, Sergio Garcia and Shane Lowry in the runner’s up hall-of-near-fame.

The standard has dropped here in recent years in direct correlation to the course playing easier – Kirk’s -14 was the lowest winning score here since 2005, so the point we’re trying to make is that the Cognizant Classic remains something of a mystery.

Our preference, particularly in dry, windy conditions, is for those that will keep their ball under tight control. PGA National is a course that can take driver out of the hands, with fairway finding far more agreeable when attacking greens that are well protected by sand and water. 

Breezy conditions will make the assignment all the more difficult, so those comfortable getting up and down and scrambling can also thrive here. 

We switch to Bermuda greens on the Florida Swing, of course, which brings to mind an unusual but well-tested link to the Sony Open in Bermuda. There’s a list of players as long as your arm that has won one of these events and finished second at the other – Kirk, Henley and Justin Thomas have done so in the past decade, and many more prior to that too.

Both are fiddly Par 70s that are wind-affected and require premium ball control, so you can see why the correlation is there.

You can also throw the Memorial Tournament into the mix if you wish: Scott, Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Ryan Palmer, Rory Sabatini are all in the 1-2 club at Muirfield Village and PGA National. 

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Russell Henley (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 81.3, Salary: $10,200)

PGA National has been a happy hunting ground for Russell Henley over the years, and there’s no reason to think he can’t add to his fine canon of work here in 2024 either.

The tournament winner in 2014 and T3 in 2021, Henley loves it here – as he does at the correlating Waialae, where he’s also won and served up a stack of other top-10 finishes.

The reason? Henley is accurate off the tee and excellent on approach, which speaks to the ball control requirement we’ve spoken about as a prerequisite at PGA National. He can also chip and scramble well when the time comes, too.

Serving up a solid T24 last time out the Genesis Invitational, which is not what we might consider a natural fit for his game, we can have confidence that Henley will deliver in Florida once again.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 16th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 37th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 48th

Top Tier Pick #2

Eric Cole (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 86.3, Salary: $9,900)

It was a here at PGA National 12 months ago that Eric Cole nearly won his maiden PGA TOUR event.

Losing in a playoff can be a galling but fortifying experience, and you wonder if Cole – who’s a better player now than he was 12 months ago – will turn that negative into a positive.

He’s been driving the ball better than ever before recently, while remaining an exceptional iron and wedge player with a rock-solid short game.

T13 at the Sony Open earlier this year, Eric Cole is ready to exorcize the demons of 12 months ago.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 29th
• SG: Putting – 31st
• Driving Accuracy – 47th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Corey Conners (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 76.5, Salary: $9,100)

There’s a bunch of players whose putting may enjoy an uptick now we’ve switched to Bermuda, and Corey Conners – based on his past history – could be among them.

If he does wield the flat stick with more authority, the Canadian can cash in on monstrous ball-striking form that has seen him best the field in each of his last eight strokes off the tee and on approach.

PGA National is a course that, in theory, should suit Conners down to a tee, and his game is in a good enough space to take full advantage.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 24th
• SG: Approach – 28th
• Scoring Average – 44th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Daniel Berger (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 64.5, Salary: $9,200)

The road back to full health and form can be a long one in professional golf, but there’s just signs that Daniel Berger is getting back to where he needs to be. 

His career-long trademarks – accuracy off the peg, quality on approach – remain in place after injury and surgery, and it was good to see Berger putt much better in his T28 last time out in Phoenix.

He will enjoy the switch to Bermuda greens as much as anybody – evidenced by a fine record at PGA National, which includes T2 in 2015 and T4 in 2022.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 15th
• Proximity to Hole – 46th 
• Greens in Regulation – 51st

Low-Tier Pick

Chan Kim (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 67.1 Salary: $6,200)

Having fired a round of 64 at the Sony Open in January, Chan Kim would have been on the long list for this event anyway – and that’s before he appeared on the first page of the leaderboard in Mexico.

A two-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, Kim has been adjusting to life on the PGA TOUR in 2024 with mixed results.

But he is generally accurate off the tee and can get hot on approach, as he did at the Mexico Open, while an ability to explode on the greens is always handy – Chan Kim could be one to watch this year, and hopefully he’ll get up and running in fine style in Florida this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 4 Scoring Average – 24th
• Driving Accuracy – 27th
• SG: Approach – 60th

Sleeper Pick for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Sam Ryder (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 68.8, Salary: $5,900)

There’s a nice price dangling over Sam Ryder this week thanks to his recent struggles, which perhaps aren’t all as bad as they seem.

Three missed cuts in four starts is obviously not ideal, but within those early exit he found more fairways than the field and gained strokes on approach in each of his last four outings.

An errant flatstick has been the issue, but remember he has two top-10s to his name at PGA National – Ryder loves these Bermuda greens, and so an uptick in fortunes with putter in hand can reasonably be expected.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 27th
• SG: Approach – 44th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 59th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Ryan Moore (Odds: 350/1, FPPG: 63.3, Salary: $5,300)

As one of the shortest hitters playing on the PGA TOUR, you wouldn’t mark Vidanta down as an ideal track for Ryan Moore. 

But he made it work, for the most part, bringing an end to a run of four straight missed cuts on the PGA TOUR. The reason is that his approach play was back to the exceptional levels that saw him post an 8-5-38-13 formline during the Fall Series. 

So, back on shorter, more testing ground, a return to that sort of form would be most welcome and not out of the question.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 2nd
• Greens in Regulation – 55th
• Scrambling – 70th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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