Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Memorial Tournament

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Memorial Tournament  

Memorial Tournament Fantasy Preview

There are plenty of people in golf – players, caddies, and media types – who believe Robert MacIntyre has the game to be one of the best players in the world. But he simply hasn’t taken to the touring life of a professional golfer – the Scot openly admits he finds it a lonely experience, and that ultimately might hold him back.

It’s somewhat fitting then that his maiden PGA TOUR title came with a few home comforts in tow. Scots and Canadians have enjoyed a mutual bond for centuries, and as he headed for the Canadian Open last week, MacIntyre had another Scot carrying his bag – dad Dougie.

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The scriptwriters had all of the material they needed then, with MacIntyre getting the better of friend Ryan Fox, Ben Griffin and others to land the victory with a score of -16 at Hamilton – another skilled Links player to win at the venue following Rory McIlroy’s Canadian Open triumph here in 2019.

It secures the Scot’s playing rights on the PGA TOUR for the foreseeable future, and also books his spot at this week’s Signature Event: the Memorial Tournament at the legendary Muirfield Village club in Dublin, Ohio.

Last Week’s Results

Last week we had two Top 10 finishers in Canada, who were Tom Kim (T4) and MacKenzie Hughes (T10).  Overall, eight of our twelve picks made the cut in Canada.

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Memorial Tournament Field

The $20 million prize purse has once again concentrated the minds of the best in the business. All of the PGA TOUR’s big guns are in Ohio, with Scottie Scheffler – yet to win at Muirfield Village – leading the way with a clear mind now that his criminal charges stemming from the PGA Championship have been dropped.

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Rory McIlroy has three top-10s at the venue and wasn’t a million miles away in Canada, while Xander Schauffele makes his first outing since winning at Valhalla. Former winners at ‘Jack’s Place’ include defending champion Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, and Billy Horschel – they all get another crack at the title this week. And what a thrill for Jackson Koivun, the 2024 Jack Nicklaus Award winner that will tee it up for the first time amongst the big boys.

This Week’s Course Preview

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We’re closing in on 50 years of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village.

Designed by Jack Nicklaus, in association with Douglas Muirhead, Muirfield Village continues to defy the sands of time – the winning score was just -7 here in 2023. It’s a decent size at 7,569 yards for its Par 72, but in true Nicklaus fashion this is a high-grade test of ball-striking – not just anybody can get the job done here.

The fairways are of average width but the rough is generally left to grow tall and thick – penalizing those that do stray too far from the runway. Fairways and greens are protected by the best part of 70 bunkers, while water is in play on 13 holes, so there’s plenty of obstacles to be avoided. The Bentgrass greens are of a smallish nature, and given that the average approach length is in the region of 200+ yards, you can see why GIR is missed so frequently at Jack’s Place – Hovland winning in 2023 despite finding just 57% of greens in regulation.

Just four holes averaged under par here in a tougher-then-usual edition last year – you won’t be surprised to learn that was the quartet of Par 5s. Of those that averaged over par, the stretch from 16-18 played the hardest – we could be in for another fascinating finale come Sunday. The last hole, a 480-yard Par 4, saw just 32 birdies made all week long….compared to 153 bogeys or worse.

Weather Forecast for Dublin, OH

Muirfield Village is a hard track made all the tougher if the weather doesn’t play ball.

Intriguingly, the forecast is good this week – perhaps a little too good. There should be wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures of around 75 degrees, with the wind opening up at around 16mph on Thursday before dropping off to 9mph on Sunday.

A warm, dry and breezy forecast should help to try out Muirfield and ensure it plays super-fast….toughening the assignment for the players yet further.

DUBLIN WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Memorial Tournament

As a flavor of just how tough this layout played 12 months ago, Viktor Hovland didn’t shoot a round better than 69 – and yet he still ran out as the champion.The Norwegian drove the ball well but did miss fairways and greens along the way, however it was his short game that bailed him out of trouble time and time again.

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Hovland still needed a playoff to defeat Denny McCarthy, who had a chance to win in normal time but for a bogey at the very last hole. McCarthy would put a red number on the board at the same hole first up in the playoff, which ensured his long wait for a PGA TOUR title continued.

As for Hovland, he’d been grinding away all week – making the best of things without being at his best. But that’s exactly what it takes at Jake’s Place….

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Memorial Tournament

These small-field Signature Events are not prime fare for DFS gaming, but at least this tournament has a 36-hole cutline chopping those outside of the top-50 and ties.

Even so, single entry contests are the way to play it this week….

• PGA $40k Albatross: It’ll cost you $12 to enter this game, but once you’re in you’ll have access to the $40k prize pool – which includes a winner’s payout of $4k.
• PGA $30k Caddie: If you’re keeping a tight belt this week ahead of the U.S. Open next, this $5 game will let you get some skin in the game without breaking the bank. There’s 7,000 teams vying for the $1k top prize.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Patrick Cantlay won this event with a score of -19 in 2019, but a series of course renovations have seen the winning mark fall to -7, -13, -13, and -9 subsequently.

The firm and fast conditions expected this week could lead to another single-digit winning score, and will once again require the champion to be strong in all departments – tee-to-green efficiency, and scrambling well when required, are non-negotiables this week.

Long, straight shooting is very much the way forward at Muirfield Village, with lengthy precision off the tee particularly handy. The players will be hitting plenty of 200+ yard approaches into small, fast greens too, so class with long irons in hand – and a reliable nature around the greens, is key.

Hovland, as a rule, hasn’t always been the best of chippers, but he scrambled well last year, and that – allied to some excellent putts made – were the icing on the cake for his victory.

There’s plenty of correlating courses we can call upon, but our favorites are those that can be described as tree-heavy, technical tests. TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill, Innisbrook, Riviera, and Colonial just some of those spring to mind.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Memorial Tournament   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Memorial Tournament  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 4/1, FPPG: 112.8, Salary: $12,500)

Not to put too fine a point on it, Scottie Scheffler delivered one of the best performances of his entire career at last year’s Memorial Tournament – and lost!

Whether he even remembers the week that vividly remains to be seen, but he gained an extraordinary +5.17 strokes on the field from tee-to-green – nearly double that of anyone else.

The fact that he was able to finish one shot behind the leaders despite delivering one of the worst performances of his career on the greens is telling – Muirfield Village suits his eye perfectly, as you expect it would.

Baby born. Criminal charges dropped. Liberated, Scheffler can just start playing golf again – sometimes, the best player in the field wins the tournament….as much as we like to overcomplicate these things.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st
• Scrambling – 4th

Top Tier Pick #2

Sam Burns (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 74.8, Salary: $8,300)

Burns delivered his best ball-striking performance in weeks at the Canadian Open – recording a top-10 finish there despite gaining just +0.09 on the field with his putting.

His previous best ball-striking effort brought him a T3 finish at the Phoenix Open, and if Burns can putt better this week – and he’s likely too on slicker and purer Bentgrass greens – then he can improve even on that.

His record at Jack’s Place is a mixed bag, but there’s two top-20s here in his last three trips, which at least offers a persuasive argument that there’s more to come from Burns in Ohio.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 12th
• Scoring Average – 18th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Tony Finau (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 76.1, Salary: $7,900)

The edge at Muirfield Village, historically, has been found from tee-to-green; a department in which Tony Finau is as strong as anybody.

We know he struggles on the green, but Finau has been putting better lately – still below the PGA TOUR average, it should be noted, but sufficiently to contend for trophies. Scheffler, remember, lost more than two strokes to the field on the greens here 12 months ago and still only finished one shot behind Hovland.

Finau isn’t Scheffler, granted, but he is a world-class operator from tee-to-green nonetheless, and has previous top-10s to his name at Muirfield Village.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 9th
• Total Driving – 18th
• Scoring Average – 44th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Brian Harman (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 68.7, Salary: $7,300)

You might think from his recent stats that Brian Harman has lost his groove off the tee, but we’re inclined to disagree.

Two of his toughest driving assignments have come lately – he simply cannot compete at bombs-away layouts like Valhalla and Quail Hollow. Otherwise, his approach play has been outstanding, and nobody can doubt the quality of Harman’s short game.

His record at Muirfield Village is a mixed bag, however we’d argue he’s played the best golf of his career in the past year – this time, he heads to Ohio as a major champion, too.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 49th
• SG: Approach – 50th
• Driving Accuracy – 56th

Low-Tier Pick

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 56.3, Salary: $7,000)

It’s a speculative play, granted, given that his form has fallen away since winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic last summer.

But we were taken by how well Rickie Fowler struck the ball at the Charles Schwab (+2.05 on the field ball-striking), and if that has imbued him with positive feelings in his game, Muirfield Village has long been a venue that has gotten the best out of him.

In his past seven trips to Jack’s Place, Fowler has compiled three top-10s, a T11, and a T14 – at times, his form has been wholly in the doldrums, and yet he has still come up with the goods in Ohio.

Key Stats:

• Fairway Proximity – 34th
• Total Driving – 39th
• Putts Per Round – 72nd

Sleeper Pick for the Memorial Tournament

Justin Rose (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 60.6, Salary: $6,900)

Whether Justin Rose can vividly remember his 2010 victory at Muirfield Village or not only he knows, but a runner-up finish here in 2015 – and T6 in 2018 – at least signals that this is a layout that he loves.

And what a time for Rose to be returning. After taking some time off after the RBC Heritage to find his game, the Brit has been in fine fettle – delivering huge numbers with his ball-striking at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab.

He putted well at the former (T6) but not so at the latter (T32), however there’s clear evidence that Rose loves the greens at Jack’s Place – can he add another win or top-10 to his collection in Ohio?

Key Stats:

• Fairway Proximity – 7th
• Scrambling – 36th
• Total Driving – 45th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Memorial Tournament

Lee Hodges (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 54.2, Salary: $6,500)

A return to a venue at which he finished T12 a year ago could not have come at a better time for Lee Hodges.

His approach play hasn’t been as consistently good as it is right now since winning the 3M Open last summer, with stronger form on the greens leading him to T12 finishes at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge in his last two starts.

The two host venues for those couldn’t be any more different, so Hodges’ form is travelling – he’ll be hoping that it leads to further success in Ohio this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 24th
• SG: Approach – 36th
• Bogey Avoidance – 75th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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