Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2024 US Open

2024 US Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

It’s Scottie’s world, and every other golfer is just living in it.

Scheffler was at it again at the Memorial Tournament on Sunday, rounding out a fifth PGA TOUR title of 2024. At his current rate, he could match the extraordinary feat of Tiger’s best-ever season – he won nine times back in the year 2000.

It was tough going on Sunday, with Muirfield Village playing to a brutal standard – major worthy, if anything. Scheffler showed rare signs of vulnerability around the super-firm layout, with Collin Morikawa pressing hard, but in the end he would not be denied.

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It means that Scheffler has now won The Masters and the Players Championship this year, as well as events inextricably linked to two all-time greats of the game – the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and now the Memorial; played at a venue affectionately known as ‘Jack’s Place’ thanks to the exceptional design work of Jack Nicklaus. 

Speaking of major worthy….it’s off to the third biggie of the year, with the U.S. Open this week at the iconic Pinehurst No.2 course.

It’s the first time that the major has visited this sumptuous stretch of North Carolinan golf since 2014, when just three players finished their 72 holes under par – one of them, Martin Kaymer, taking to the layout with gusto on his way to a remarkably easy victory.

Not that anything really comes easy at Pinehurst No.2. It’s exceptionally long, playing in excess of 7,500 yards for its Par 70, with just two Par 5 holes – both of which the majority of the field will struggle to reach in two.

So there’s plenty of mammoth approach shots to be played, and that’s when things get really interesting. Many of the Bermuda greens have an upturned saucer profile, which basically means that any shot that doesn’t land softly on the target zone will simply be rejected, rolling away and leaving the player with a tough up-and-down. 

So approaching with height and spin, with a soft landing, is the first clue as to what will be required this week – length off the tee will afford the player more loft on their club when attacking the greens.

Pinehurst No.2 is also unique in that there’s next to no rough on the real estate – instead, there’s native grasses left to grow freely and some sand traps, which are more compacted and dense than traditionally softer bunkers. The upshot? Those straying from the fairway are in the lap of the gods as far as their lie is concerned.

It’s the sort of venue where you would expect those who are best able to eradicate mistakes from their game to thrive, but at the same time there’s so much danger lurking from tee-to-green that even the finest players in the game could be caught out.

Will we see a sleeper winner this week? It’s hard to say, but few would have predicted Erik Compton – with four top-five finishes, and no wins, in 169 PGA TOUR starts – recording one of those top-fives in these harshest of conditions. 

Perhaps, then, there’s an opportunity for a long-odds pick to shock the world and contend at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No.2 – in that spirit, here’s our sleeper shortlist.

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Sahith Theegala – 50/1 – Those that back Sahith Theegala are opening the door to disappointment – the Californian is tremendously talented, but also somewhat inconsistent.

But he’s got game and he’s got major pedigree, too. T9 at The Masters in 2023, Theegala also finished T12 at the PGA Championship at Valhalla, and his top-10s in elite company at THE PLAYERS and Arnold Palmer Invitational this year further that idea.

T12 at the Memorial, where he gained +2.99 strokes on the field from tee to green, Theegala heads to Pinehurst in strong form.

Tony Finau – 55/1 – There’s a concern that Tony Finau doesn’t putt well enough to win a major.

Maybe it’s true, but here’s an interesting fact: at the Memorial, he served up his best putting display in more than a year.

It’s relevant because his tee-to-green game is, undoubtedly, good enough to win anywhere, and he has the length to make life that little bit easier at a layout where distance will surely be a necessary quality.

Wyndham Clark – 66/1 – If you look at the careers of Martin Kaymer, Rickie Fowler, and Erik Compton – the winner and T2 pair the last time Pinehurst hosted the U.S. Open, one common trait unites them: form on the Florida Swing.

Kaymer won THE PLAYERS and did well at the Honda Classic (now known as the Cognizant), while Fowler won THE PLAYERS and Honda. As for Compton, three of his four career top-fives on the PGA TOUR came at the U.S. Open, the Honda Classic, and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The relevance? Well, only Scheffler beat Wyndham Clark at the API and PLAYERS this year, which reveals Clark’s fondness for these conditions. His extreme length, excellent wedge play, and reliable putting could prove very handy indeed this week in his title defense.

Keegan Bradley – 70/1 – Confidence could be an important weopan in our winners’ arsenal this week, and Keegan Bradley should not be lacking in that.

T22 at The Masters, T18 at the PGA Championship, T2 at the Charles Schwab….Bradley has been hanging in elite company lately, and in theory he should take well to Pinehurst – long, straight, and high class on approach, that’s a solid foundation.

Perhaps most importantly for a flusher of Bradley’s pedigree, he’s began putting well – gaining more than +1.00 on the field on the greens in each of his last two outings. That, allied to his tee-to-green game, would produce a title challenge this week.

Alex Noren – 100/1 – Hanging your hat on a single stat is a bad idea any week, but particularly when handicapping a major.

That said, Bogey Avoidance is an intriguing metric – it essentially shows which players are prone to making mistakes, and which aren’t.

Alex Noren ranks third for Bogey Avoidance in 2024 – the two players above him happen to have won majors this year (Scheffler and Xander Schauffele).

It’s not an exact science by any means, but if Noren can limit the mistakes – as he typically does – then he could find himself leaping up the leaderboard at Pinehurst without necessarily having to make many birdies.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the US Open here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2024)

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