Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 John Deere Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the John Deere Classic  

John Deere Classic Fantasy Preview

Three-putting a Par 4 is a bad look for a professional golfer. Three-putting on the final hole to cost yourself a PGA TOUR title quite another matter entirely.

Akshay Bhatia seems to be the kind of personality that would shake off such disappointment breezily enough, but the words ‘Rocket Mortgage Classic’ will haunt him for some days ahead you fancy.

The left-hander, who’d been there or thereabouts throughout the week, played a solid round of golf on Sunday with 11/14 fairways found and 15/18 GIR, but jitters on the back nine with flatstick in hand would – quite simply – cost Bhatia the trophy.

When one falters, another benefits. And this time around that was Cameron Davis, who managed to stay stoic in the face of unlucky bounces and bad lies to post a score of 70 – just enough to stay ahead of the rest of the field on -18.

It was the Australian’s second PGA TOUR title – his first, ironically (or perhaps not), coming at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2021.

We’ve one more week of traditional PGA TOUR action before everybody packs up their stuff and heads for the UK, the two-week Links Swing kicking off with the Scottish Open before culminating in the British Open.

Before all that, it’s off to Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic.

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Last Week’s Results

Last week we ended up with two Top-10 finishers on our Tuesday Sleeper report.

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John Deere Classic Field

Many of the great and the good are putting their feet up this week, which means we have a weak-looking field to comb through.

Patrick Cantlay will almost certainly head off as the sportsbook favorite from Jordan Spieth, but neither of those guys has necessarily looked particularly convincing in their play recently.

Defending champion Sepp Straka will look to double-up at TPC Deere Run, while the likes of Sungjae Im, Aaron Rai, Maverick McNealy, and Davis Thompson will be considered, by many, to be his most forthright opposition.

Don’t forget, the John Deere Classic forms part of the British Open qualifying series, so there’s a chance to book a spot in the last major of the year – will that motivate an outsider to come through the field at TPC Deere Run with an unlikely victory?

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This Week’s Course Preview

It would be fair to describe TPC Deere Run as a piece of golfing eye candy, but it’s far from a tough test….or even a particularly memorable one.

Measuring around 7,289 yards for its Par 71, D.A. Weibring was in generous mood when he devised the blueprints for a layout that has spawned four consecutive winners with a score of -19 or better.

With all due respect, a layout that Michael Kim has scored -27 at, or where Paul Goydos has fired a round of 59, is simply there for the taking.

But taken it must be all the same. There’s wide fairways and water is in play on just five holes, while a relatively lacklustre 78 bunkers confirms why so many players find it easy to stay out of trouble at TPC Deere Run.

Last year, the top-10 on the leaderboard was packed with players who led the way in Strokes Gained: Putting, which comes as no great surprise. Unfortunately, trying to predict who will have a strong putting week isn’t the easiest of tasks.

The Par 5s at two and seventeen are as easy as the PGA TOUR gets – there was 19 eagles and 23 bogeys at the former last year, and the while the ninth (503-yard Par 4) and eighteenth (476-yard Par 4) will keep the players honest, the emphasis will once again be on birdies if the weather conditions allow.

On which note….

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Weather Forecast for Silvis, IL

Rain.

We don’t know how much and exactly when, but the forecast is indicating that there will be a sprinkling of the wet stuff this week.

As far as the early predictions are concerned, it could rain on Thursday, Friday and Sunday, with the wind speeds on Friday also poised to hit 15mph.

Saturday could be the outlier, with dry, sunny spells expected, with temperatures hovering around the 81 degree mark all week.

SILVIS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the John Deere Classic

Timing is everything in golf, and Sepp Straka proved that it wasn’t how you start but how you finish that counts here 12 months ago.

His opening round of 73 should have, in theory, precluded him from winning – especially as he sat some eleven strokes off the lead at the end of Thursday.

A 63 on Friday still left him seven shots adrift of 36-hole leader Cameron Young, while a Saturday 65 closed the gap to 54-hole protagonist Brendon Todd to four.

Sunday was well and truly funday for the Austrian. He birdied the first, fourth, sixth, seventh, and ninth to go with an eagle at two, and as Todd struggled to keep up, Straka went into overdrive on the back nine – posting four consecutive birdies between 11-14.

He looked a strong favorite to break 60, but par at the easy seventeenth – and a double-bogey at the last – put pay to those chances. But Straka didn’t care; he was the winner by two from Todd and Alex Smalley.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s John Deere Classic

It would be nice to head into the Links Swing on the back of a good week in the J.D.C. It won’t be easy, on account of the fact that a rain-softened TPC Deere Run will be at the mercy of pretty much anyone in the field, but we’re certainly going to give it a good try.

• PGA $30k Albatross: Putting contests, which is essentially what the John Deere Classic is, level the playing field between sharp and more casual DFS gamers. So, to redress the balance, tackle a single-entry game like this one: it’s $12 to enter, with a top prize of $3k.
• PGA $25k Caddie: There’s a similar sort of theme here, with $5 single entry paying into a $25k pool that will ship $2.5k to its winner – alongside a host of other handsome payouts. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Sometimes, there are golf tournaments that don’t make any sense.

TPC Deere Run is easy, with wide open fairways and simple greens to find and hold. So why have short, accurate types been the dominant force here over the years?

In the past three editions, Straka, J.T. Poston, and Lucas Glover – all reliable fairway finders to some extent – have taken home the trophy, while the silver medal has been given to the likes of Brendon Todd, Kevin Na, and Ryan Moore; players that have made a living from slow swinging into the short grass.

It’s a theme that may be kiboshed if the rain does fall heavily in Silvis, but it’s a point of interest nonetheless.

It’s not impossible that a score of -25 will be needed to win at a soft TPC Deere Run. What does that mean? Well, you need to hit approaches close hole after hole – you cannot simply rely on your flatstick this week, even though we accept that putting will ultimately be the difference-maker.

But hitting irons and wedges closer to the holes makes putting much easier, and that’s the kind of style we would expect to prevail come Sunday.

In terms of correlating courses, Colonial – home of the Charles Schwab Challenge – has often been a strong precursor. There’s a whole stack of players that have won at both or at least contended; in fact, there’s too many to name here. You’ll just have to take our word for it.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the John Deere Classic   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the John Deere Classic  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Sungjae Im (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 61.9, Salary: $10,300)

The head of the market is a difficult puzzle to solve this week, particularly when considered through the lens of the fact that favorites don’t always fare too well here, or in putting shootouts in general.

Patrick Cantlay will go off at Scheffler-esque prices with the sportsbooks, and while he is a thoroughbred at his best, the stats would suggest he’s been leaning somewhat heavily on his flatstick of late.

Nobody can say with any great certainty which version of Jordan Spieth will show up, so preference is for Sungjae Im, who has plenty going for him this week.

The Korean’s game has been in a funk in 2024, so he took his medicine by heading home and playing in a Korean Tour event – winning it, too, back in April.

That’s levels of quality below this assignment, of course, but winning is a fun habit and it’s notable that Im’s form has improved markedly since – four top-10s in six PGA TOUR starts telling the tale.

A noted Colonial performer, Im produced his best approach play numbers for more than a year last time out at the Travelers, so he heads to Illinois buoyed with confidence.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 37th
• Driving Accuracy – 39th
• Proximity to Hole – 56th

Top Tier Pick #2

Aaron Rai (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 68.1, Salary: $10,000)

We saw last week with Tom Kim’s missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic how difficult it can be to follow-up a close call at winning one week with a sustained effort the very next.

Aaron Rai played in the final group at Detroit GC, so he will be disappointed not to even get close to ending his PGA TOUR title drought.

But you would hope that spurs him on, rather than drags him down, at TPC Deere Run, because this is a layout that should suit him perfectly given his status as a consistent fairway finder – we’ve already discovered how that has proven to be vital here.

Excellent from tee-to-green, the flatstick has been Rai’s executioner over the years – but putting gains on the field of +0.75 and +1.22 in his last two starts reveal an increased sense of confidence in that department. How timely could that prove?

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 6th
• Scoring Average – 6th
• Driving Accuracy – 7th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Eric Cole (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 55.8, Salary: $8,500)

Although it would be crude to speculate about a player’s health, Eric Cole has spoken publicly about his battle with Addison’s Disease which, when its symptoms are at their worst, must make playing top-level golf a particular challenge.

Cole was the PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year in 2023, so his struggles this year come as something of a surprise – perhaps mitigated by health problems, we really don’t know.

However, his performances in his last two starts have suggested a righting of the ship, and at his best Cole is simply a better player than the majority of this field.

A gain of +1.02 on approach at Detroit GC last week was exactly what we would expect from him, alongside green numbers with the flatstick – Cole has now put up meaty gains back-to-back last week and at the Travelers before it.

Only time will tell if that spurs a renaissance, but if it does then Cole will love the wide fairways – and the rest of the assignment – at TPC Deere Run this week.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 68th
• Scrambling – 69th
• SG: Putting – 70th 

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Andrew Novak (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 63.8, Salary: $7,500)

You may recall a time earlier in the season when Andrew Novak posted three consecutive top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR.

It’s been leaner times since, but his game appears to be rounding up nicely again, with T14 at the Canadian Open followed by T20 just last week.

Typically reliable with iron and wedge in hand from the short grass, Novak should set up plenty of birdie looks this week – a gain of +1.69 on the field putting at Detroit GC suggests his flatstick is hot enough to take them.

Key Stats:

• Fairway Proximity – 16th
• Scoring Average – 20th
• SG: Approach – 30th

Low-Tier Pick

Jhonattan Vegas (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 57.8, Salary: $7,200)

It would be a shock for the ages if Jhonattan Vegas were to win this week.

But even so, this elite driver of the golf ball has shown enough of an improvement in other departments lately to suggest he could be on the upward march.

The Venezuelan banked T25 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic on the bank of an outstanding show with irons and wedges in hand, so a continuation of that in Illinois would be most welcome.

His putting has improved somewhat too, so all we can hope is that Vegas puts it all together at TPC Deere Run. If he does, he could outperform his lowly salary requirements.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 17th
• Scoring Average – 28th
• SG: Approach – 33rd

Sleeper Pick for the John Deere Classic

David Skinns (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 58.9, Salary: $6,900)

If David Skinns had just played a smidgen better on Sunday, he might have banked a top-10 finish in Detroit instead of T17.

That would have been his third on the PGA TOUR since March, and while there’s if’s, but’s and maybe’s there, it does show the upside of backing the Brit at layouts that suit.

Skinns will presumably enjoy the wide-open spaces at TPC Deere Run, which should allow his excellent approach play – strong strokes gained on the field in this department in four of his last five starts – flourish.

He’s a streaky putter too, putting up big numbers on the greens in T4 and T7 in Florida and Houston, and so a repeat of that with the flatstick should hopefully take him close to the top page of the leaderboard.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 23rd
• Fairway Proximity – 37th
• Birdie Average – 47th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the John Deere Classic

Ben Kohles (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 49.9, Salary: $6,600)

You suspect that Ben Kohles has been waiting for an assignment like TPC Deere Run to come along – ever since he should have won the CJ CUP Byron Nelson in May, in fact.

In the interim, the short-hitter has been forced to tackle bombers’ paradises like Quail Hollow, Pinehurst, and Valhalla – not exactly a comfortable fit for him.

But he showed at Detroit GC what he’s capable of in more appealing surroundings, with 82% of fairways found, +0.91 gained on the field on approach, and a T20 finish to boot.

An excellent putter, Kohles came close but no cigar in a birdie fest at TPC Craig Ranch – could he go one better this time?

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 17th
• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 57th
• Approach Putt Performance – 59th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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