Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 3M Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 3M Open

3M Open Fantasy Preview

In our preview of the British Open, we’d identified the profile of player that typically does well in the fourth major of the year: those ranked inside the OWGR top-30, with Links pedigree and who had played in the Scottish Open the week before.

And we were proven right….albeit we drafted the other suspects that fit the bill other than the champion!

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Hats off to Xander Schauffele, the Californian whose ability to handle pressure had been questioned by many. Now, he’s a two-time major champion who’s become the first man to win the British Open and PGA Championship in the same year since 2014.

His win showed the importance of patience in tough Links conditions. It blew a gale around Royal Troon and rained cats and dogs, with some players having to take driver just to reach Par 3 holes.

Schauffele hung around and then, when conditions got a little easier on Sunday, he took full advantage with a majestic round of 65 – that saw him spring clear of a congested leaderboard to win the Claret Jug with relative ease.

It means that Americans have won all four majors in the calendar year for the first time since 1982 – no bad thing in a Presidents Cup year. Intriguingly, it means that Americans have now won seven of the least eight British Opens at Royal Troon too, which is something to remember the next time the Open Championship heads to this slice of Scotland.

Elsewhere, in the alternative Barracuda Championship, Nick Dunlap claimed his second PGA TOUR title of the year – he has become the first player in history to win on the TOUR in the same season as an amateur and a pro.

With the majors now boxed off, attention turns to the traditional summer/autumn shenanigans of the FedEx Cup – this week’s 3M Open offering a chance to gather up some much-needed points….

Last Week’s Results

Tough week for the boys at Royal Troon, with some of the best missing the cut or maybe worse…falling apart over the weekend.   

Unfortunately for our team, we did not have Xander or Rose in our picks, so we chalked up Royal Troon as a “missed cut” for us. 

In total, we had 6 of our players make the cut and our shining star was Sungae Im with his ‘T7 finish. 

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3M Open Field

You have to feel sorry for the 3M Open. In 2024, it’s a sandwiched in-between a major played thousands of miles away and the Olympic Games – it’s no wonder that it’s been difficult to attract a stellar field.

Just nine players inside the world’s top 50 will be teeing it up at TPC Twin Cities: Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Akshay Bhatia, Sam Burns, Cam Davis, Adam Hadwin, Lucas Glover, and J.T. Poston.

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The defending champion, Lee Hodges, will return to try and double up, while a host of players that have won this season – Austin Eckroat, Taylor Pendrith, Jake Knapp, Davis Riley, Peter Malnati, and Dunlap – will also look to add more silverware to their collections.

Perhaps inspired by Dunlap’s heroics in winning on the PGA TOUR as an amateur, the likes of Luke Clanton and newly-turned pros Neal Shipley and Michael Thorbjornsen will be looking for their own early career success.

This Week’s Course Preview

When the 3M Open first headed to TPC Twin Cities in 2019, the words of tournament director Hollis Cavner were prophetical: he said he wanted ‘birdies and trainwrecks’ at the event.

While the trainwrecks part is open to debate, there’s no doubt that Cavner’s words have held true: in the past five years, winning scores of -21 and -24 have been recorded here, while of the nine players that finished T7 or better last year, all averaged 75% or higher GIR – three surpassed 80%.

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Rounds of 60 were posted here on the Champions Tour, while a whopping 15 rounds of 64 or lower were recorded in the 3M Open last year.

It’s quite a long track at 7,468 yards for its Par 71, but the fact that Hodges was able to score -24 here last year with just three Par 5s proves just how easy this layout is.

The wide-open fairways tend to run super-fast, which means that even the shortest hitters get the luxury of yards added to their drives, and even renovation work – trees added, water hazards extended and more bunkers – has done little to increase the difficulty over the years.

The Bentgrass greens are also sizable, although some undulations do at least put a premium on hitting approach shots into the right portion of them.

Unfortunately, there wasn’t a great deal of course-level scoring detail published last year, but watch out for the bulk of the low-scoring to be done on the back nine. 

There’s two Par 5s on this stretch that both offer eagle opportunities, let alone birdies, although care still has to be taken – J.T. Poston, who finished T2 last year, posted an eight at the Par 5 final hole!

Weather Forecast for Blaine, MN

There’s actually some rain around early in the week in Blaine, although that is expected to clear the way for three – maybe four – fine days of weather.

Thursday looks set to be warm, sunny and benign enough, with wind speeds of around 9mph.

That breeze creeps up over the next two days – 13mph on Friday, 15mph on Saturday – which may make things a tad more difficult than the 3M Open has typically delivered, with more hot temperatures (89 degrees at their peak) helping to ensure the fairways and greens run slick.

The only possible anomaly is Sunday, where scattered thunderstorms appear in the early forecast. As ever, it’s hard to say with any confidence if these will arrive or when.

BLAINE WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the 3M Open

What a way to win your maiden PGA TOUR title!

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Lee Hodges blasted the field aside here 12 months ago, shooting four rounds of 67 or better and ultimately winning by seven shots.

TPC Twin Cities was at its most forgiving in 2023, with six players on -10 or lower at the halfway stage – Hodges leading the way at -15 after firing rounds of 63 and 64 across the opening 36 holes.

A third round of 66 meant that Hodges would carry a five-shot lead into the final round, with J.T. Poston and Tony Finau his nearest company.

Would Hodges baulk at the finishing line? Not a bid of it. In fact, he extended his lead – birdies at two, sixteen and eighteen, allied to two eagles – seeing him canter clear of the field and win by a whopping seven strokes.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s 3M Open

The 3M Open hasn’t always been the easiest event to handicap, but with high winds and hot temperatures expected, the ball will be in the court of the iron and wedge play wizards as much as it will be the hot hands on the greens.

They will form the basis of our draft for these contests:

• PGA $300k Drive the Green: It’s hard to resist the lure of this $5 entry game when we have a clear player profile and windy conditions. With a top prize of $50k, there’s plenty to get excited about.

• GOLF TOUR $50k Full Round Special: It’s another multi-entry contest next up for us, with this $10 game affording plenty of chances to cash big – not least the $5k top prize.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Although the 3M Open, on the face of it, appears to be a putting-based shootout, there’s actually more subtlety to the tournament than you might think.

Last year, of the nine players that finished T7 or better, six hadn’t played in the British Open, two had but missed the cut, while the remaining player contested all 72 holes at Royal Liverpool.

But we know that the elite players in the field would have been at the British Open, so this goes against all logic and convention. Perhaps the challenge of cross-Atlantic travel, and the physical hardship of golf on the Links, plays a part.

A look at the recent 3M Open leaderboards is also instructive. Hodges went round in -24, but the rest of the field was -17 or worse – not necessarily the kind of score you would expect from a putting shootout.

In 2022, when the conditions were somewhat tougher, only nine players finished double-digits under par. Take out Finau’s -17, and the next best tally was -14 from noted ball-strikers Sungjae Im and Emiliano Grillo. 

The normally stratospheric GIR numbers were also down, which suggests that when conditions are a bit more challenging – i.e. high winds and fast greens – TPC Twin Cities does not play as easily as you might think.

If you trawl through the last five editions of this event, its amazing how many classy operators have either won or finished in second place. Finau, J.T. Poston, and Cameron Champ are all multiple-time PGA TOUR winners in recent memory, while Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel, Bryson DeChambeau, and Collin Morikawa are all major champions.

Even though it should, the 3M Open just doesn’t scream putting shootout to us.

There’s no danger to anybody off the tee, so maybe we should be looking at approach play in the 150-200 yard bracket – ultimately, this is likely to be where birdie opportunities are set up, particularly as some of the greens at TPC Twin Cities are undulating in nature.

There’s no obvious course correlations – TPC Twin Cities is somewhat unique in that it has nothing unique about it, but Bentgrass putting success will likely prove vital.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 3M Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the 3M Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Tony Finau (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 75.4, Salary: $10,500)

Having won here in 2022, and sat solo third here after 54 holes in 2023, it’s evident that Tony Finau loves it at TPC Twin Cities.

It’s interesting because there’s no real need for Finau to play this event – he’s making the journey back from the British Open, but he keeps returning to this tournament despite the logistical issues. That speaks volumes about his love for it.

It’s great news that Big Tone missed the cut at Royal Troon. That’s given him more time to travel to Minnesota, shake off any jet lag, and prepare properly for this test.

Putting. It’s Finau’s achilles heel, but his form at TPC Twin Cities suggests he loves these greens. What’s more, he’s gained strokes on the field with his flatstick in each of his last three completed starts on the PGA TOUR, and was even up on the stellar field at the British Open when missing the cut.

Whichever way you shake it, Finau – despite his chalk status – is a must play this week.

Key Stats:

• Approach Putt Performance – 1st
• SG: Approach – 3rd
• Scoring Average (Adjusted) – 16th

Top Tier Pick #2

Cam Davis (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 62.4, Salary: $8,900)

Fast and windy conditions will be of no concern to Cam Davis, the now two-time champion of the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

The Australian seems to love these kinds of test, with T6 at the St Jude and T12 at The Masters both indicative of his fondness for firm and fast.

T10 and T16 in the past two years at TPC Twin Cities only serves to confirm the fact, with Davis returning to a happy hunting ground as a newly-minted PGA TOUR champion, having prevailed at Detroit GC in June.

A fairly poor season by his standards is now looking up; we expect Davis’ improvements in recent weeks to carry him nicely into the 3M Open.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 41st
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 51st
• Fairway Proximity – 87th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Erik van Rooyen (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 72.1, Salary: $8,600)

We can describe 2024 as a breakthrough year for Erik van Rooyen, with the South African putting better now than he has done at any other point in his career.

Most importantly, his ball-striking numbers have – for the most part – remained excellent too, which explains why four top-10s on the PGA TOUR have followed since February alone.

But with his improved putting, Van Rooyen is now able to compete even when the other parts of his game are off – as he did in a T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic that was led solely by his flatstick.

His ball-striking was back on point at the Scottish Open, however, and his exceptional mid-range approach play should set up plenty of birdie looks for Van Rooyen this week.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 12th
• Birdie Average – 22nd
• SG: Putting – 24th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Ben Griffin (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 65.6, Salary: $7,900)

The pleasing improvement in Ben Griffin’s approach play continued at the British Open, where he finished +0.88 on a stellar field for SG: Approach despite missing the cut.

He actually missed out on the weekend at Royal Troon due to a poor week with the flatstick, but we know that’s an anomaly for a guy that otherwise ranks 38th on the PGA TOUR this season for SG: Putting.

T5 at the John Deere Classic earlier in July with a score of -23, Griffin can clearly compete in birdie fests, but as he showed in a solo second turn at the Canadian Open, there’s also versatility to his game if the conditions worsen.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (Actual) – 4th
• SG: Putting – 38th
• SG: Approach – 60th

Low-Tier Pick

Andrew Novak (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 67.3, Salary: $7,400)

If you take the unique conditions of the Scottish Open off of Andrew Novak’s recent resumé, you’re otherwise left with some excellent ‘pitch and putt’ style golf that is so handy at TPC Twin Cities.

At the John Deere Classic and Rocket Mortgage Classic, Novak gained strokes on the field on approach and putting – he’s knocking the ball close, and then knocking it home. Hence his T7 and T20 finishes.

T14 at the Canadian Open just prior to that, Novak’s game is shaping up nicely ahead of a trip to a layout where the extra room off the tee will surely prove to his liking.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average (actual) – 16th
• SG: Approach – 29th
• SG: Putting – 60th

Sleeper Pick for the 3M Open

Zac Blair (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 51.0 Salary: $6,800)

From second place at the ISCO Championship to a missed cut at the Barracuda a week later, only Zac Blair can explain that inconsistency.

But we’re willing to cut him some slack ahead of a return to a venue that Blair finished T13 at in 2023, with rounds of 64 and 66 on his ledger.

Blair’s form is spectacularly erratic. He went from an outstanding T26 at the U.S. Open in June to missing the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic a week later, where he lost strokes to the field in every single department.

So he’s the dictionary definition of a sleeper pick – a hunch, maybe, that his excellent ball-striking round at the ISCO, and previous form at TPC Twin Cities, is enough to give him a chance this week.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 53rd
• Putts per Round – 55th
• SG: Approach – 97th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 3M Open

Chez Reavie (Odds: 350/1, FPPG: 48.5, Salary: $6,400)

Sadly for him, there aren’t many PGA TOUR layouts at which the super-short Chez Reavie can compete.

But TPC Twin Cities is one of them, as the firmness of the fairways will add extra yardage to his tee shots – getting him in range to attack on approach.

And that approach play is still, as it has always been, outstanding, and there will be plenty of call for that at the wind-hit TPC Twin Cities.

T11 here a couple of years ago, Reavie just about has what it takes to compete this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 21st
• Approach Putt Performance – 39th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 72nd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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