Fantasy Golf Sleeper Report – 2024 3M Open

2024 3M Open Fantasy Sleeper Report

What a difference three months can make.

There were still question marks about Xander Schauffele’s ability to close out wins even with such a stellar resumé to his name, but victory at the PGA Championship in May kicked those to the kerb.

So a win at the British Open on Sunday proved to be the icing on the cake, as Schauffele became the first player in a decade to win those particular majors in a single calendar year since 2014.

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Conditions were atrocious at Royal Troon, with howling winds and lashing rain causing some holes to play to almost barbaric standards. But Schauffele possesses what all the best Links players need – patience, and so he hung around towards the top of the leaderboard by minimizing any errors.

Come Sunday, with the wind easing, suddenly there were birdies to be made, and it was Schauffele above all else who took advantage with a round of 64 – catapulting clear of the chasing pack that included Justin Rose, Billy Horschel and DP World Tour pro Thriston Lawrence.

At one point on Sunday, Lawrence found himself alone at the top of the leaderboard – his reward is an invitation into the 3M Open this week, whereas it was Schauffele who got his hands on the Claret Jug to confirm his status as one of the ‘best of the rest’ of world golf behind Scottie Scheffler.

A major last week, the Olympics next week – you can kind of guess how the 3M Open’s field has fared as a result.

In fairness, the likes of Tony Finau, Sam Burns, and Sahith Theegala lend some heft to the field, while Rose and Horschel will be amongst those looking to frank their British Open heroics into victory on the other side of the Atlantic.

They’ll be met in Blaine, Minnesota with a TPC Twin Cities layout that’s easy enough to conquer in benign conditions, but with strong winds and red-hot temperatures forecast, it may play just a little harder than some of the winning scores here in the past hint at.

Lee Hodges took the spoils here 12 months ago with an absolute monster of a win – his score of -24 was seven shots clear of anybody else. The year prior, when the wind blew, Finau beat Sungjae Im and Emiliano Grillo with a score of -17, so this is very much a conditions-led golf course.

It’s one of the easiest courses off the tee on the PGA TOUR, but there’s just enough about these Bentgrass greens, which feature some severe undulations, to make the players mind their work.

The forecasted strong winds will add an extra layer of complexity, as will the hot temperatures, which could dry out the fairways and greens and leave them playing super-fast as a result, so this might not prove to be the putting shootout of yesteryear.

With FedEx Cup points and Presidents Cup qualification on the agenda, there’s no doubt that some players in this field will be more motivated than others this week.

The 3M Open has also shown plenty of variance over the years, so coming a week after a major we would have to conclude that the chances of a long odds contender going close – or perhaps even winning – this week are high.

But can we back the right players? Let’s take a look in our 2024 3M Open sleeper shortlist.

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Adam Hadwin – 50/1 – It always seems likely that the winner of the 3M Open will be the player that spikes for two or three rounds, and consolidates in the other.

What’s interesting about Adam Hadwin is that he can hang in birdie fests – see his form in the American Express for evidence of that, but also grind out scores when the wind is up or the greens are super-fast.

The Canadian was solo third at the Memorial Tournament in June in tough conditions, and with the spectre of Presidents Cup qualification looming large, he will be putting in the hard yards this week.

A missed cut at the British Open can almost be construed as a positive thing, while a T6 finish at TPC Twin Cities previously offers an insight of what is available to Hadwin this week.

Sam Stevens – 50/1 – Whether Sam Stevens is a good enough player to win on the PGA TOUR remains to be seen, but he keeps popping up with promising showings in weaker fields.

He stepped down in grade to finish T2 on the Korn Ferry Tour in June, before following up with T10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he might well have gotten closer to the winner – who was four shots clear – if he hadn’t posted a final round of 73.

Neither a weak showing in the Scottish Open, nor a lowly T28 in the stableford format at the Barracuda Championship, are of concern – this is the kind of environment in which Stevens truly thrives.

Max Greyserman – 66/1 – Inside the top-five at the Barracuda Championship heading into the final round, Max Greyserman just ran out of steam on Sunday to end up T13.

But having made the trek from the Scottish Open the week, perhaps there’s good reason for his fatigue – with a few more nights rest on home soil, Greyserman should be reenergized.

And that’s a good thing ahead of a tilt at the 3M Open, because his ball-striking has been good lately to go with season-long excellence on the greens. With two top-10s in 2024, Greyserman clearly has plenty of upside in conditions that should suit.

Rico Hoey – 75/1 – Two poor final rounds have cost Rico Hoey the chance to win on the PGA TOUR in the last two weeks, so perhaps the third time will be the charm in Minnesota.

He really ought to have prevailed at the ISCO Championship, where some weak play on the Sunday – including missing greens from inside 100 yards – betrayed his nerves.

It was a similar scenario on Sunday at the Barracuda, where he sat third with 18 holes to play, but these are all learning experiences that many PGA TOUR rookies go through before winning.

With T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in June, Hoey is very much in form right now.

Jake Knapp – 80/1 – Quite what level of player Jake Knapp turns out to be only time will tell, but his rookie year on the PGA TOUR has gone swimmingly.

A winner at the Mexico Open, with three other top-10s, plus a cut made at The Masters – no mean feat for a debutant – Knapp will remember 2024 with fondness.

His form has fallen away since, but it was notable in his final round at the Barracuda Championship – where he made seven birdies on the back nine – that he had found something.

How that manifests itself at the 3M Open remains to be seen, but it’s worth remembering that Knapp has performed admirably in better fields than this already this season.

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Want more of this week’s fantasy predictions? Check out our full fantasy preview for the 3M Open here.

Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2024)

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